18z tropical model suite

#1 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Oct 31, 2003 1:56 pm

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... s/03103118

Nothing new from them in terms of the tracks as they go like a spider without a clue or consensus. :roll:

JCT777 · #2 Postby **JCT777** » Fri Oct 31, 2003 2:22 pm

So I guess no matter where it goes, one of them could be right. :wink:

caneman · #3 Postby **caneman** » Fri Oct 31, 2003 2:46 pm

They are actually refering to this as Tropical Depression on this model. Is it indeed a Tropical Depression already?

#4 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Oct 31, 2003 2:58 pm

No no TD now and as for the title of the models refering it as a TD they haved been with that for some days now.

Josephine96 · #5 Postby **Josephine96** » Fri Oct 31, 2003 4:29 pm

Maybe they're hinting to something if those are calling it a TD lol..

#6 Postby **wxman57** » Fri Oct 31, 2003 5:11 pm

All 4 of those models should be ignored with a subtropical storm in the mid latitudes. LBAR is always totally worthless, A98 is climo, and the BAMM/BAMD models are designed for low-latitude systems where there is no change expected in the basic lower to mid-level steering (which is not the case now). The BAMM/BAMD are very simple models, using practically no physics to calculate what the atmosphere will do. They simply remove the model circulation from the CURRENT general flow pattern and try to define the CURRENT steering winds, assuming there are no changes. But there is a BIG change occurring - the ridge is building over the east coast in the place of the trof. So forget these models -- trash them. They're mostly worthless with this system.

Instead, use the dynamical models for this storm - GFS, ECMWF, UKMET, GFDL, etc. These models DO try to calculate the changing steering currents that may drive the storm.

18z tropical model suite

18z tropical model suite

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