The lowdown ...

[Stormsfury]

Once again, the globals are NOT doing a whole lot with the current subtropical type low in the Western Atlantic. The CMC ensembles of today have dramatically shifted from yesterday in regards to the handling of the system ... and the out to lunch 12z ETA yesterday has come back to a more sense of reality ...

The AVN loses the system in the GOM, The GFDL does the same, the CMC also weakens this low once it passes Florida ...

GFS
http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/avntc2.cgi? ... =Animation

GFDL
http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/gfdltc2.cgi ... =Animation

Canadian GEMGLB 12z
http://meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_am ... _panel.gif

NOGAPS tries to bring some weak little reflection back (also it's the furthest with the swing SW'rd ...) Actually, the only reason it keeps the entity is .. only the NOGAPS shows a dual vorticity max (one from the Caribbean and the other from the subtropical low)
http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/nogapstc2.c ... =Animation

UKMET
http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/ukmettc2.cg ... =Animation

Canadian Ensembles
http://www.stormsfury1.com/Temp/TempLoo ... mbles.html

Last night's EURO did depict a closed 1011 mb low Southeast of Texas but with tonight's run, I anticipate that it'll lose at least a closed low ...

This DOESN'T look to be a big deal ...

SF

[cycloneye]

Yes as I see the globals are backing off for the most part so the only effect from this will be some gusty winds in the floridian coast because of the tight gradient but about seeing a tropical system from this nada .