Time to take this seriously

[ColdFront77]

It seems as though local forecasters have been lulled by the calendar.

Or actually most of the lead TV mets are off for the weekend ...

SF

I honestly was going to add (edit) that in my above post and haven't gotten around to it.

Some local media outlets have professional meteorologists on weekends; unfortunately not all.

With that said, some amatuer meteorologists do know what they are talking about, but without a degree (AMS indicated next to or below their name) they are not considered "trustworthy" or are belittled, which in some instances makes sense.

[Josephine96]

I only think it's "potentially dangerous" because people could get caught off guard. Not because this thing could explosively develop..

[wxman57]

I'm looking at a satellite loop now (6:51pm CDT) and see no convection near the center. The center is a broad ring of low-level clouds about 200-300 miles across. There is some convection on the north side of this broad ring, but nothing within 150 miles of the center. Yesterday, we had tracked a small vortex that was rotating cyclonically around this larger low pressure area. That vortex appears to be gone now.

So the system looks no better organized than yesterday. It's a broad cold-core low that will produce NE-E winds of 20-40 mph along the east coast of Florida. There will be a few squalls late Sunday and Monday. Chances of tropical development before then appear to be about zero. Chances of any development before then are pretty low. Cold core lows don't intensify as they go off on their own and lose upper-level support.

The big question is if or when the low may slow down in the Gulf and develop a tighter (tighter than 200+ miles across like now) center with convection near it. If this happens, then the core may warm and it could "go tropical" and intensify quickly before hitting the northern Gulf coast.

[Rainband]

So your saying the NHC is wrong in their TWO????

[Josephine96]

I don't disagree with the NHC this time. Maybe it's November storm hype or maybe for me it's shear ignorance lol.. But I think the NHC may be dead on and tropical OR sub tropical storm may develop in the coming day..

[weatherluvr]

For what it's worth, it would not be unprecedented for a system to take this general track this time of year. The "Yankee" hurricane of 1935 moved SSW into Florida, and very likely formed under similar circumstances.

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[Derek Ortt]

Tropical cyclones do not intensify befor emaking landfall in the GOM in November. I do not know of one that has. However, I do know that in 1980, Jeanne went from a cat 2 in the CGOM to a dissipated cyclone, and that was the only system ever to become a hurricane in the GOM in November.

I do somewhat disagree with the lack of organization vs yesterday. There does appear to be somewhat better organization, though as a subtropical cyclone at the present time as there is simply too much dry air to allow for development. I continue to expect at least an STS and in the near future, barring a convective collapse

[Josephine96]

The "Yankee" hurricane lol.. Can we call it the Marlin hurricane instead please lol

[Stormsfury]

The "Yankee" hurricane lol.. Can we call it the Marlin hurricane instead please lol

LOL ...

It was dubbed the Yankee storm due to making landfall from the NE ...

SF

[Josephine96]

LOL.. The Yankee Hurricane.. Maybe we can call it the Red Sock hurricane lol..

Sorry.. I know it's NBA NFL and NHL season but I think I'm still having a baseball hangover.

GO FISH WOO HOO

[weatherluvr]

LOL.. The Yankee Hurricane.. Maybe we can call it the Red Sock hurricane lol..

Sorry.. I know it's NBA NFL and NHL season but I think I'm still having a baseball hangover.

GO FISH WOO HOO

No, because then it would reach cat 2 as it moved towards Florida, then completely fall apart just before reaching the coast... :b-x

[Josephine96]

LOL weather luvr

[Steve]

>>Tropical cyclones do not intensify befor emaking landfall in the GOM in November. I do not know of one that has. However, I do know that in 1980, Jeanne went from a cat 2 in the CGOM to a dissipated cyclone, and that was the only system ever to become a hurricane in the GOM in November.

The water is much colder near the shore this time of year. But Juan actually did become a hurricane prior to one of its landfalls. But since it was a October/November storm, it might have made hurricane status in October:

The tracks to all GOM storms in November per Hurricane Alley:

http://files.hurricanealley.net/storms/NOVGLF.html

[Steve]

One obvious difference with Juan (which I researched and found that its first LA landfall was 10/29 as a hurricane (also it's second landfall was too) - did intensify prior to landfall. But the water temps must have been way warmer than what they are now. Here's the link to the north gulf hi-res:

http://128.160.23.54/products/OFA/gsscofa.gif

Mid 70's if that right now.

http://www.csc.noaa.gov/crs/cohab/hurri ... 851104.htm

That's after Juan on November 4, 1985. The temperatures were slightly less than what they are now. Unfortunately, the NOAA's data for the Juan overview (found here):

http://www.csc.noaa.gov/crs/cohab/hurri ... n/juan.htm

The "before" is like 3 weeks before. So it's hard to say exactly how warm the waters were - but I gotta believe they were warmer than what they are now. I'd seriously expect the opposite if 96L heads for LA/MS/AL.

Steve

[wxman57]

Here's a shot I just saved. I zoomed in on our satellite image and have the latitudes/longitudes plotted for every degree. Looks like the low is at 27N/70W. There is a significant change -- note that the one squall is now to the northwest of the center. This reflects the ridge building north of the low, beginning to drive the convection to the west side of the center. But it's very poorly-organized. Just one squall over 100 miles from the center. Sure the gradient to the north is tightening, but that's because the high is strengthening, not because the low is deepening. Not much chance of it changing much before it hits Florida tomorrow evening. As Derek mentioned, lots of dry air around and the wind shear isn't helping it either.

<img src="http://home.houston.rr.com/wx/disturb.gif">

[Stormsfury]

One obvious difference with Juan (which I researched and found that its first LA landfall was 10/29 as a hurricane (also it's second landfall was too) - did intensify prior to landfall. But the water temps must have been way warmer than what they are now. Here's the link to the north gulf hi-res:

http://128.160.23.54/products/OFA/gsscofa.gif

Mid 70's if that right now.

http://www.csc.noaa.gov/crs/cohab/hurri ... 851104.htm

That's after Juan on November 4, 1985. The temperatures were slightly less than what they are now. Unfortunately, the NOAA's data for the Juan overview (found here):

http://www.csc.noaa.gov/crs/cohab/hurri ... n/juan.htm

The "before" is like 3 weeks before. So it's hard to say exactly how warm the waters were - but I gotta believe they were warmer than what they are now. I'd seriously expect the opposite if 96L heads for LA/MS/AL.

Steve

This is about the best I could do so far ... a running mean from October 27th to November 5th, 1985 for SST's..



And a tropical overview ...



And a closeup view ...



SF

[Dean4Storms]

wxman, it may tap the moisture from the low over the central Bahamas and between the warming SST's as it moves wsw and the tightening gradient it could surprise you. I would agree that as it stands Right Now it wouldn't be much for FL and over before you knew it, but it is moving into a slightly more favorable area once it nears the Bahamas.

[Stormsfury]

wxman, it may tap the moisture from the low over the central Bahamas and between the warming SST's as it moves wsw and the tightening gradient it could surprise you. I would agree that as it stands Right Now it wouldn't be much for FL and over before you knew it, but it is moving into a slightly more favorable area once it nears the Bahamas.

Dean, the transition would have to take days to do ... and it better hurry ... the environment continues to be quite dry and cyclonic ... and Skew-T's (Vertical Profile Soundings) (27ºN, 74ºW) ahead of the subtropical system (see the 5th post on this thread) ... continue to be quite dry and definitely cold-core.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=18029