How intense will Delta get?
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Re: How intense will Delta get?
Now I have no idea if Delta has peaked, or its peak is still ahead. The tiny original eye and some microwave imagery indicates this’ll be a quick EWRC, and Delta will remain in favorable conditions for another 12-18 hours before landfall, but there’s no certainty the EWRC will finish up quickly. Anything from a weakening 95-105 kt Cat2/3or a rapidly intensifying 145-155 kt Cat5 at landfall is on the table IMO.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Re: How intense will Delta get?
165 MPH / 915 MB ... similar to the 1924 western Cuba hurricane.
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Georges '98, Irene '99, Frances '04, Jeanne '04, Katrina '05, Wilma '05, Gustav '08, Isaac '12, Matthew '16, Florence '18, Michael '18, Ian '22
Re: How intense will Delta get?
Since Delta is seemingly about to go berserk in the Gulf, I guess it’s worth restarting this thread.
I’m going to guess 155 mph and 935 mbar. The MPI map suggests the west central Gulf can support a system of that intensity, and Delta’s rapidly improving organization and excellent outflow in almost all directions indicates it will be able to take advantage of the ocean heat available, unless another surprise shot of mid-level shear comes.
I’m going to guess 155 mph and 935 mbar. The MPI map suggests the west central Gulf can support a system of that intensity, and Delta’s rapidly improving organization and excellent outflow in almost all directions indicates it will be able to take advantage of the ocean heat available, unless another surprise shot of mid-level shear comes.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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TheStormExpert
Re: How intense will Delta get?
Cat.3 115mph with a pressure of 955mb. Nothing indicates anything more than gradual strengthening in the Gulf through tomorrow before it begins to weaken on Friday.
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ElectricStorm
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Re: How intense will Delta get?
140mph/945mb peak in the gulf
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B.S Meteorology, University of Oklahoma '25
Please refer to the NHC, NWS, or SPC for official information.
Please refer to the NHC, NWS, or SPC for official information.
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NXStumpy_Robothing
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Re: How intense will Delta get?
I made a prediction earlier today, and while it's most likely as far out to lunch as a pelican, I'm posting it here because I'm still hedging on some crazy deepening tomorrow.
160 mph/915 mb.
160 mph/915 mb.
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Undergraduate Meteorology Student, Georgia Institute of Technology
Re: How intense will Delta get?
I think it can make it to 165 MPH with a pressure of around 925mb.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: How intense will Delta get?
CyclonicFury wrote:Going to be a bit more conservative. 155 mph, 929 mb.
You won, however it was still far too bullish like every prediction by 24 mb. In the minds following Delta during the lunch hour of the 6th, Delta not dipping lower than 953 mb was impossible.
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