Tropical wave just offshore of west Africa (Is Invest 94L)

[Nancy Smar]

A strong tropical wave just offshore of west Africa is producing
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Some development
of this system is possible during the next few days before a
combination of dry air aloft and strong upper-level winds limit any
chance of formation while the wave is over the central tropical
Atlantic Ocean late week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[Nancy Smar]

GENESIS006, AL, L, , , , , 76, 2021, DB, O, 2021061412, 9999999999, , 006, , , , GENESIS, , AL762021

[Hypercane_Kyle]

GFS has been spinning up a TD out here for a few days now.

[AnnularCane]

I see the Atlantic has turned into fruit salad this morning. Is this August? How long was I asleep?

[AutoPenalti]

Most likely nothing will come out of this but it's impressive to see waves like this in June.

[ScottNAtlanta]

It has some decent rotation to it...this is June, right? It is also pretty massive. If they look like this in June, what is August going to look like

[Aric Dunn]

It has some decent rotation to it...this is June, right? It is also pretty massive. If they look like this in June, what is August going to look like

it is actually very impressive.. that Low/MLC is likely below 850 MB and all this would need a decent convective burst under that and it would likely develop.

[kevin]

Does anyone know what the earliest forming pure MDR storm was? I assume whatever it is the second/third week of June would have to be close to the record. Normally the MDR only becomes a discussion topic much later in the season.

[ElectricStorm]

Does anyone know what the earliest forming pure MDR storm was? I assume whatever it is the second/third week of June would have to be close to the record. Normally the MDR only becomes a discussion topic much later in the season.

Maybe Bret 2017? Unless there's another one that I'm forgetting.

[NotSparta]

Does anyone know what the earliest forming pure MDR storm was? I assume whatever it is the second/third week of June would have to be close to the record. Normally the MDR only becomes a discussion topic much later in the season.

2003 had an MDR TC form on June 11, but it was just a TD. Earliest TS in the MDR was Bret 2017, June 19

[aspen]

Yet another weak TC in the 12z GFS. Maybe we’ll see the development chances raised this afternoon, or it getting an invest tag sometime today.

[Aric Dunn]

Convection is beginning to build under that low/MLC.. if that expands a little more.. this will probably develop.

[MHC Tracking]

I would not be surprised if this one develops. Convection is getting better+the GFS has a stronger signal.

[cycloneye]

A strong tropical wave located several hundred miles south-
southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands is maintaining a large but
disorganized area of shower and thunderstorm activity. Some
development of this system is possible during the next few days
before a combination of dry air aloft and strong upper-level winds
limit any chance of formation while the wave is over the central
tropical Atlantic Ocean late this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[cycloneye]

Invest 94L is up