Central Gulf Disturbance

[jaguars_22]

I am watching the area near the west coast of Florida. Looks like there is some spin to it and good convection! Some models do show a spinning feature move towards Texas in a few days…

[chaser1]

I am watching the area near the west coast of Florida. Looks like there is some spin to it and good convection! Some models do show a spinning feature move towards Texas in a few days…

Good eye. I was looking at my radar app this morning and thought I noticed a slow and broad cyclonic turning over S. Florida. Nothing at all well defined but at the time I seemed to think the broad center might have been just east or just of Key West. Definately something for Texas to keep an eye on if convection persists.

[Nimbus]

There is a front draped across central Florida out into the gulf off Tampa.
I don't see any rotation just evening thunderstorms building near the coast.
Surface pressure has been dropping from about 30.16 to 30.05 this afternoon but its probably just diurnal.

[Nimbus]

Starting to get some rotation at the tail end of the front out in the gulf but surface pressures are still all above 30.07 in the area.

[jaguars_22]

I’m watching the area off north cuba if it holds together

[Aric Dunn]

Change the title to central gulf now.. this mornings visible showing slowly increasing curvatures and broad rotation. being that convection is increasing ( still not all too organized) it needs to be watched very slowly now.

[jaguars_22]

Yes I believe it’s an upper low though?

[Aric Dunn]

Yes I believe it’s an upper low though?

the upper low is helping the convection at the moment and there is a surface trough/low pressure. Which is beginning to sharpen quite a bit

[Aric Dunn]

Next up on the "lemon" list ( probably 8pm) is the area right north of the Yucatan..

very sharp trough now with deep convection building on the edge of the ULL divergent zone.. as the ULL lifts NNW it will open up more of the surface trough to enhanced convection.

[jaguars_22]

Is this all heading towards Texas?

[wxman22]

Is this all heading towards Texas?

Yes, it is expected to hit the middle/upper Texas coast on Monday.

[lrak]

Dang, where did this come from? I don't remember any models showing this spin? Will the ULL keep it in check?

[Aric Dunn]

Dang, where did this come from? I don't remember any models showing this spin? Will the ULL keep it in check?

it has been in the models.. for awhile. but just as a broad area of vorticity.. most missed it.

[lrak]

Looks are deceiving with this thing. Corpus has seen so much more rain this year, and a lot of the February Freeze stumps are coming back to life.

Will this go in south of Brownsville and give South Texas another drink? It appears to be strengthening and the shear is not too bad.

Thanks.

[jaguars_22]

It just doesn’t look like much except for the ULL pumping up disorganized showers. I am on the middle Texas coast so looks like scattered showers this next week. I guess nothing will organize before then huh?

[Aric Dunn]

It just doesn’t look like much except for the ULL pumping up disorganized showers. I am on the middle Texas coast so looks like scattered showers this next week. I guess nothing will organize before then huh?

Surface trough is there.. just have to wait and see where the convection concentrates on the edge of the ULL. SE/SSE side is where I am watching.

weak broad turning already present. overnight/morning convection will be key.