"Simulated" Storm Satellite Images

[Patrick99]

Re some of these older comments about possibly only smaller sized hurricanes able to exist in the FL Straits, I think we can look to Irma to help disprove that. She was a fairly large storm, and was forecast to go sub-900mb in the Straits before slamming into Miami. I am still so thankful that did not end up happening due to Cuban land interaction.

[Shell Mound]

Re some of these older comments about possibly only smaller sized hurricanes able to exist in the FL Straits, I think we can look to Irma to help disprove that. She was a fairly large storm, and was forecast to go sub-900mb in the Straits before slamming into Miami. I am still so thankful that did not end up happening due to Cuban land interaction.

Irma was easily the closest that South Florida came to its “doomsday” scenario since the late 1940s. Not since then had such a large and intense hurricane come within three days of making a possible impact on metropolitan Miami as a (high-end) Cat-4 or stronger. Donna hit well to the south, Andrew was small, and Floyd was always forecast to curve just offshore. Frances was never really forecast to hit MIA/FLL/PBI, but just to the north. Irma, on the other hand, was at one point forecast by models and the NHC to head NNW into Miami-Dade County as a high-end Cat-4 or stronger—within three days of landfall. Irma was easily South Florida’s biggest hurricane threat since at least 1949 and probably the 1926/1928 duo. The 1949, 1928, and 1926 hurricanes, along with the 1947 Fort Lauderdale hurricane, were all large Category-4 cyclones at landfall. Had Irma missed Cuba, it would have very likely made landfall on Miami as a Floyd-sized Cat-5, given that it would have been closer to the UL anticyclone, thereby lessening the shear that it encountered en route to the lower Keys. It would have also tracked NNW across western Fort Lauderdale, Lake Okeechobee, and Greater Orlando, putting the entire east coast of peninsular Florida in the strongest quadrant, all the way north to Jacksonville. Such a track would have produced devastatingly high waves and flooding, to not mention significant damage to the Kennedy Space Center.

[Category5Kaiju]

Re some of these older comments about possibly only smaller sized hurricanes able to exist in the FL Straits, I think we can look to Irma to help disprove that. She was a fairly large storm, and was forecast to go sub-900mb in the Straits before slamming into Miami. I am still so thankful that did not end up happening due to Cuban land interaction.

Irma was easily the closest that South Florida came to its “doomsday” scenario since the late 1940s. Not since then had such a large and intense hurricane come within three days of making a possible impact on metropolitan Miami as a (high-end) Cat-4 or stronger. Donna hit well to the south, Andrew was small, and Floyd was always forecast to curve just offshore. Frances was never really forecast to hit MIA/FLL/PBI, but just to the north. Irma, on the other hand, was at one point forecast by models and the NHC to head NNW into Miami-Dade County as a high-end Cat-4 or stronger—within three days of landfall. Irma was easily South Florida’s biggest hurricane threat since at least 1949 and probably the 1926/1928 duo. The 1949, 1928, and 1926 hurricanes, along with the 1947 Fort Lauderdale hurricane, were all large Category-4 cyclones at landfall. Had Irma missed Cuba, it would have very likely made landfall on Miami as a Floyd-sized Cat-5, given that it would have been closer to the UL anticyclone, thereby lessening the shear that it encountered en route to the lower Keys. It would have also tracked NNW across western Fort Lauderdale, Lake Okeechobee, and Greater Orlando, putting the entire east coast of peninsular Florida in the strongest quadrant, all the way north to Jacksonville. Such a track would have produced devastatingly high waves and flooding, to not mention significant damage to the Kennedy Space Center.

Imagine the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane except it occurs present day and makes its northward turn right to the south of Miami. It may have been a compact storm, but there's no denying that the economic toll would be catastrophic enough and perhaps billions of dollars more costly than Katrina, and the 892 mbar pressure and 185 mph winds (as well as its slow motion track) would have been enough to emphasize the power of that storm.

[Shell Mound]

Re some of these older comments about possibly only smaller sized hurricanes able to exist in the FL Straits, I think we can look to Irma to help disprove that. She was a fairly large storm, and was forecast to go sub-900mb in the Straits before slamming into Miami. I am still so thankful that did not end up happening due to Cuban land interaction.

Irma was easily the closest that South Florida came to its “doomsday” scenario since the late 1940s. Not since then had such a large and intense hurricane come within three days of making a possible impact on metropolitan Miami as a (high-end) Cat-4 or stronger. Donna hit well to the south, Andrew was small, and Floyd was always forecast to curve just offshore. Frances was never really forecast to hit MIA/FLL/PBI, but just to the north. Irma, on the other hand, was at one point forecast by models and the NHC to head NNW into Miami-Dade County as a high-end Cat-4 or stronger—within three days of landfall. Irma was easily South Florida’s biggest hurricane threat since at least 1949 and probably the 1926/1928 duo. The 1949, 1928, and 1926 hurricanes, along with the 1947 Fort Lauderdale hurricane, were all large Category-4 cyclones at landfall. Had Irma missed Cuba, it would have very likely made landfall on Miami as a Floyd-sized Cat-5, given that it would have been closer to the UL anticyclone, thereby lessening the shear that it encountered en route to the lower Keys. It would have also tracked NNW across western Fort Lauderdale, Lake Okeechobee, and Greater Orlando, putting the entire east coast of peninsular Florida in the strongest quadrant, all the way north to Jacksonville. Such a track would have produced devastatingly high waves and flooding, to not mention significant damage to the Kennedy Space Center.

Imagine the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane except it occurs present day and makes its northward turn right to the south of Miami. It may have been a compact storm, but there's no denying that the economic toll would be catastrophic enough and perhaps billions of dollars more costly than Katrina, and the 892 mbar pressure and 185 mph winds (as well as its slow motion track) would have been enough to emphasize the power of that storm.

Sorry, but a 1935-type storm has far less destructive power than a storm like Carla or Katrina. That’s what experts say, and it’s the only point I am belabouring.

[Category5Kaiju]

Irma was easily the closest that South Florida came to its “doomsday” scenario since the late 1940s. Not since then had such a large and intense hurricane come within three days of making a possible impact on metropolitan Miami as a (high-end) Cat-4 or stronger. Donna hit well to the south, Andrew was small, and Floyd was always forecast to curve just offshore. Frances was never really forecast to hit MIA/FLL/PBI, but just to the north. Irma, on the other hand, was at one point forecast by models and the NHC to head NNW into Miami-Dade County as a high-end Cat-4 or stronger—within three days of landfall. Irma was easily South Florida’s biggest hurricane threat since at least 1949 and probably the 1926/1928 duo. The 1949, 1928, and 1926 hurricanes, along with the 1947 Fort Lauderdale hurricane, were all large Category-4 cyclones at landfall. Had Irma missed Cuba, it would have very likely made landfall on Miami as a Floyd-sized Cat-5, given that it would have been closer to the UL anticyclone, thereby lessening the shear that it encountered en route to the lower Keys. It would have also tracked NNW across western Fort Lauderdale, Lake Okeechobee, and Greater Orlando, putting the entire east coast of peninsular Florida in the strongest quadrant, all the way north to Jacksonville. Such a track would have produced devastatingly high waves and flooding, to not mention significant damage to the Kennedy Space Center.

Imagine the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane except it occurs present day and makes its northward turn right to the south of Miami. It may have been a compact storm, but there's no denying that the economic toll would be catastrophic enough and perhaps billions of dollars more costly than Katrina, and the 892 mbar pressure and 185 mph winds (as well as its slow motion track) would have been enough to emphasize the power of that storm.

Sorry, but a 1935-type storm has far less destructive power than a storm like Carla or Katrina. That’s what experts say, and it’s the only point I am belabouring.

No need to be sorry! Of course I respect your opinion, but at least personally, this is where I feel that the different unique hazards of a certain hurricane should be emphasized as not every storm is the same. For instance, wind, storm surge, and inland flooding. I personally think that all three can be pretty bad, disastrous, and impactful, it's just a matter of what you interpret as "bad." For instance, Katrina, Ike, and Sandy were the "surge monsters" while Dorian, Andrew, and Laura were "wind demons," and Harvey and Florence were the "rain-dumpers." It's also important to understand that unless you have a storm like Katrina or Sandy that becomes nationwide attention and that is known by many people throughout the US even years after they occur, the particular region that is hit by a particular nasty storm with its own unique primary hazards is the region that typically remembers that storm in vivid and graphic detail. I really do think that when it comes down to hurricanes and the damage they can cause, the interpretations and levels of such are normally region-specific, with different individuals experiencing different events, emotions, etc.

[AtlanticWind]

Imagine the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane except it occurs present day and makes its northward turn right to the south of Miami. It may have been a compact storm, but there's no denying that the economic toll would be catastrophic enough and perhaps billions of dollars more costly than Katrina, and the 892 mbar pressure and 185 mph winds (as well as its slow motion track) would have been enough to emphasize the power of that storm.

Sorry, but a 1935-type storm has far less destructive power than a storm like Carla or Katrina. That’s what experts say, and it’s the only point I am belabouring.

No need to be sorry! Of course I respect your opinion, but at least personally, this is where I feel that the different unique hazards of a certain hurricane should be emphasized as not every storm is the same. For instance, wind, storm surge, and inland flooding. I personally think that all three can be pretty bad, disastrous, and impactful, it's just a matter of what you interpret as "bad." For instance, Katrina, Ike, and Sandy were the "surge monsters" while Dorian, Andrew, and Laura were "wind demons," and Harvey and Florence were the "rain-dumpers." It's also important to understand that unless you have a storm like Katrina or Sandy that becomes nationwide attention and that is known by many people throughout the US even years after they occur, the particular region that is hit by a particular nasty storm with its own unique primary hazards is the region that typically remembers that storm in vivid and graphic detail. I really do think that when it comes down to hurricanes and the damage they can cause, the interpretations and levels of such are normally region-specific, with different individuals experiencing different events, emotions, etc.

The big thing with a small intense storm is where they hit, a 35 labor day storm coming up the middle of florida thru the everglades would be nothing compared to to the same
storm coming up the I95 corridor.that would be catastrophic in S florida.

[Category5Kaiju]

Sorry, but a 1935-type storm has far less destructive power than a storm like Carla or Katrina. That’s what experts say, and it’s the only point I am belabouring.

No need to be sorry! Of course I respect your opinion, but at least personally, this is where I feel that the different unique hazards of a certain hurricane should be emphasized as not every storm is the same. For instance, wind, storm surge, and inland flooding. I personally think that all three can be pretty bad, disastrous, and impactful, it's just a matter of what you interpret as "bad." For instance, Katrina, Ike, and Sandy were the "surge monsters" while Dorian, Andrew, and Laura were "wind demons," and Harvey and Florence were the "rain-dumpers." It's also important to understand that unless you have a storm like Katrina or Sandy that becomes nationwide attention and that is known by many people throughout the US even years after they occur, the particular region that is hit by a particular nasty storm with its own unique primary hazards is the region that typically remembers that storm in vivid and graphic detail. I really do think that when it comes down to hurricanes and the damage they can cause, the interpretations and levels of such are normally region-specific, with different individuals experiencing different events, emotions, etc.

The big thing with a small intense storm is where they hit, a 35 labor day storm coming up the middle of florida thru the everglades would be nothing compared to to the same
storm coming up the I95 corridor.that would be catastrophic in S florida.

Yeah and this is the thing with sub-900 mbar storms; while any area that gets hit by such powerful storms would almost certainly get decimated, as we saw with storms like Patrica, Wilma, Gilbert, Allen, and the 1935 storm, their extra-low pressures usually correlated with a smaller core and eyewall (I think Rita is a notable exception as at max strength it did have a decently large eye compared to the aforementioned storms), thus making their damage range at peak strength somewhat small and needing to be very targetted in order to actually hit a specific land target (especially a major city).

[Shell Mound]

Sorry, but a 1935-type storm has far less destructive power than a storm like Carla or Katrina. That’s what experts say, and it’s the only point I am belabouring.

No need to be sorry! Of course I respect your opinion, but at least personally, this is where I feel that the different unique hazards of a certain hurricane should be emphasized as not every storm is the same. For instance, wind, storm surge, and inland flooding. I personally think that all three can be pretty bad, disastrous, and impactful, it's just a matter of what you interpret as "bad." For instance, Katrina, Ike, and Sandy were the "surge monsters" while Dorian, Andrew, and Laura were "wind demons," and Harvey and Florence were the "rain-dumpers." It's also important to understand that unless you have a storm like Katrina or Sandy that becomes nationwide attention and that is known by many people throughout the US even years after they occur, the particular region that is hit by a particular nasty storm with its own unique primary hazards is the region that typically remembers that storm in vivid and graphic detail. I really do think that when it comes down to hurricanes and the damage they can cause, the interpretations and levels of such are normally region-specific, with different individuals experiencing different events, emotions, etc.

The big thing with a small intense storm is where they hit

This is precisely my point: a major storm’s being smaller reduces the odds that a particular region will see significant impact. This is not the case, however, with a large system. That is why I prefer seasons with smaller storms: because the small-but-intense systems tend to be weighted toward those that generate extreme wind but few, if any, other hazards, and even if a few do generate significant surge, the worst impacts tend to be extremely localised. A larger system, by contrast, has the potential to generate big waves and similar surge over a much wider area, and also tends to feature a greater potential for widespread tornadoes and heavy rainfall (flash-flooding). If an Andrew or Dorian were to hit Miami today, the rigours of South Florida’s current construction code would likely result in minimal wind-caused damage to post-1992 structures. However, a 1926-type impact would produce larger waves and/or surge over a broad swath of coastal South Florida, and therefore even newer structures that would survive extreme winds might collapse due to undermining of their foundations via wave-caused erosional or debris-related impacts. So a storm like the 1926/1928 hurricanes, Floyd, or Irma would overall be far worse for South Florida than another Andrew.