Will the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season Need to Use the Newly Established Auxiliary Naming List?

[Category5Kaiju]

So I recently figured to ask this question out of curiosity to hear other posters' input and opinions on such, but at this point the L storm is likely to form the middle of this week, with a Caribbean system shortly afterwards somewhat likely to occur (which would conceivably be Mindy). We have not even hit the peak of September 10, and we could very well see at least 13 NSs before then. With a La Nina well in the cards and the WAM looking to be pretty potent (along with a very wet Sahel), I personally think that it is likely that we will exhaust List 1 names and need to use the aux list to name the last couple of storms this season. How likely do you guys personally think we will reach 22 or more NSs, and if you think it is possible how far do you think we could go into the aux list?

[AlphaToOmega]

Based on how many storms have already formed and how favorable September seems, it seems very likely that we will need to use the newly established auxiliary naming list.

[AnnularCane]

I've been going back and forth. Right now I think it's most certainly possible.

[Landy]

Considering the season's pace in comparison to 2005 and 2020 I would say we'll at least get to around Brayden. Depends entirely on how active late season is if the forecasted La Niña verifies which it likely will.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Genuinely impressive how this season managed to have six named storms in August. If that's not a record, it's got to be close to one.

[Teban54]

Genuinely impressive how this season managed to have six named storms in August. If that's not a record, it's got to be close to one.

The record is 8 named storms in August, a tie between 2004 and 2012. I know 1995 also had 7 named storms forming in August, not sure if there are other seasons with 7.

[AlphaToOmega]

Genuinely impressive how this season managed to have six named storms in August. If that's not a record, it's got to be close to one.

The record is 8 named storms in August, a tie between 2004 and 2012. I know 1995 also had 7 named storms forming in August, not sure if there are other seasons with 7.

2011 also had 7 storms during August.

[Teban54]

The NHC gives a 90% chance of Larry forming by September 3. Only 5 seasons had their 12th storm becoming a TS by then:

- 2020: Laura on August 20; 18 storms afterwards
- 1995: Luis on August 29; 7 storms afterwards
- 2012: Leslie on August 30; 7 storms afterwards
- 2005: Lee on August 31; 16 storms afterwards
- 2011: Unnamed TS on September 1; 7 storms afterwards
(Honorable mention for the 1933 and 1936 seasons with 11 storms before September in pre-satellite era.)

All five seasons ended up with at least 19 storms, up to the T storm. 1995, 2011 and 2012 mostly had a slowdown in September in terms of named storms, whereas 2021's September looks favorable at least in the first half.

While 2021 doesn't look like it will rival the extreme NS counts of September 2020 or October 2005, we only need 10 more named storms to reach Adria, and that seems rather doable with the projected La Nina. Even if we don't tap into the auxiliary list, only 8 more storms are required to make 2021 the third most active season in terms of named storms (tied with 1933), regardless of ACE.

[zhukm29]

On a related note, the EPAC is pretty ahead as well with Nora forming in August - although it isn't a guarantee given the EPAC conditions during the second half of the season, it would be pretty interesting if both basins managed to get 20+ named storms. Using previous seasons as analogs, it would be reasonable for the EPAC to end somewhere between Terry and Xina (following 2020 for the rest of the season would get us to Waldo)... now imagine the NATL also goes deep into the list as well. Would be quite a year for the WHEM, especially since 20+ NS for both the NATL and EPAC in the same season is something that many did not think was even possible

[FireRat]

The way things are going, it makes me at least consider a possibility of a yes, maybe like 25% it will happen. Certainly been quite an active season thus far