How many storms will form in October?

AlphaToOmega · #1 Postby **AlphaToOmega** » Fri Sep 03, 2021 6:39 pm

October might be an interesting month. The JMA and CanSIPS suggest a potentially favorable VP signal for October, which would not be surprising. The MDR is already rapidly warming, and it could sustain itself into October. However, October is climatology less active than September, but hurricane seasons sometimes have a second peak in October. Therefore, it is too early to say for certain.

Cape Verde storms typically only form in August or September, so any October storms will likely have an increased threat to land as Louisiana and Nicaragua experienced in 2020.

Zero
One or two
Three or four
Five or six
Seven or more
The Atlantic Ocean will evaporate

#2 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Sep 03, 2021 6:43 pm

Made the poll that will be open for voting until September 30th at 7:42 PM EDT.

Shell Mound · #3 Postby **Shell Mound** » Thu Sep 09, 2021 10:06 am

Three or four, including two major hurricanes

aspen · #4 Postby **aspen** » Thu Sep 09, 2021 10:08 am

3-4. The Euro VP chart suggests a favorable setup for Nina-induced west-based activity in the middle and last thirds of the month.

#5 Postby **toad strangler** » Thu Sep 09, 2021 10:28 am

Did we give up on September already? :lol:

AlphaToOmega · #6 Postby **AlphaToOmega** » Thu Sep 09, 2021 1:38 pm

toad strangler wrote:Did we give up on September already?

Nah, I just wanted to be early.

#7 Postby **chaser1** » Thu Sep 09, 2021 4:37 pm

This season's October is gonna feel like many years' September. I'm feeling "5" (of which 3-4 will be hurricanes, with 1-2 being MH). I think Sept 20 - Oct 30 may bring a lot of hurt

FireRat · #8 Postby **FireRat** » Thu Sep 09, 2021 6:11 pm

Going with 3-4 too, I got a weird feeling about October, particularly the 2nd half of the month. One or 2 of the storms could be majors too, this season is favorable for the fabled 'October Monster' that occurs prior to Halloween. 10/25 or thereabouts I'm thinking.

Category5Kaiju · #9 Postby **Category5Kaiju** » Fri Sep 10, 2021 6:45 am

I am ready to make my guess. Given September is looking to have Larry, Mindy, and at least 4 other storms, I am going with an October that overperforms as well, especially with La Nina entering the picture. I am going to go with 5.

Hurricane2021 · #10 Postby **Hurricane2021** » Sat Sep 11, 2021 7:01 pm

2 - 4 storms. 1 - 3 Hurricanes and 0 - 2 majors (3-4)

WiscoWx02 · #11 Postby **WiscoWx02** » Mon Sep 13, 2021 9:12 am

I think because everyone is expecting a October like last year, it's gonna be dead quite :lol:

I'm not as bullish on October as I was a month ago but I still think we will see at least another hurricane, probably a Cat3 or + but no more than 1 more than likely.

#12 Postby **tolakram** » Mon Sep 13, 2021 9:34 am

3 or 4. I'm not sure on how many majors. I suspect 2.

kevin · #13 Postby **kevin** » Mon Sep 13, 2021 9:43 am

I'm going with 4, including 2 hurricanes, both majors. Maybe 2020 made me hype up October too much, but I don't see why it will be anything else than an active month.

#14 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Sep 25, 2021 10:34 am

Bumping as poll will close on the 30th at 7:42 PM EDT.

underthwx · #15 Postby **underthwx** » Sat Sep 25, 2021 10:48 am

I think that 3 or 4 storms are possible....1 major....1 minimal Hurricane....the others either depressions or Tropical Storm strength...

CyclonicFury · #16 Postby **CyclonicFury** » Mon Oct 18, 2021 10:42 pm

I voted 0 as a joke a few weeks ago. And it may actually happen, LOL

Hammy · #17 Postby **Hammy** » Mon Oct 18, 2021 11:24 pm

Voted three, was expecting a bunch of slop storms, seems the basin can't even manage that. :lol:

InfernoFlameCat · #18 Postby **InfernoFlameCat** » Tue Oct 19, 2021 5:07 pm

I think we will see 3-4 at the end. This season has been very MJO dependent and the most favorable phase will be moving through at the end of October.