Extratropical Gale Offshore the mid Atlantic Coast (Is Invest 94L)

[ElectricStorm]

Well hello there

1. A non-tropical area of low pressure is expected to form off the east
coast of the United States in a couple of days. The frontal low will
likely move generally northward through the middle of the week and
could bring rain and wind impacts to portions of the mid-Atlantic
and northeast U.S. coast. Late in the week, the low is forecast to
move eastward, and it could begin to acquire tropical or subtropical
characteristics while it moves away from the coast of the U.S.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[MarioProtVI]

Finally, something after all of this deadness.

GFS actually makes this a similar storm to Arlene 1987 sort of and makes it a hurricane and lasts quite a while…hope that verifies!

[galaxy401]

Finally an area of interest. It's a little nice seeing a shaded area instead of just nothing.

[aspen]

The 00z and 06z GFS runs keep this system — as a non-tropical low and/or a TC — within the north-central Atlantic for at least 9-10 days. Something prevents it from recurving early. If that verifies and it develops, it could be a surprisingly long-lasting subtropical system, maybe even becoming a hurricane like Leslie or Pablo.

[aspen]

While the 12z GFS is weaker, the 12z Euro and CMC are both quite strong and show the system remaining in the open Atlantic for a large portion of their runs, becoming a hurricane during that time frame.

[aspen]

Regardless if this develops, its precursor system will bring very heavy rain to the Northeast over the next couple of days. TWC is forecasting 2-4 inches starting Monday night into Tuesday for my area in SW Connecticut. It’ll be our biggest rain event since Ida.

[Iceresistance]

This is system from the first Nor'Easter of Winter 2021-2022

[galaxy401]

Chances are gradually going up.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Oct 25 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A non-tropical low pressure system is expected to form off the east
coast of the United States during the next day or so. The frontal
low will move generally north-northeastward through the middle of
the week, and the system will likely bring rain and wind impacts to
portions of the mid-Atlantic and northeast U.S. coast. By the end of
the week, the low could acquire some tropical or subtropical
characteristics while it moves eastward away from the northeast U.S.
coast. For more information on this system, including storm watches
and warnings, see products issued by your local National Weather
Service office and High Seas Forecasts issued by the Ocean
Prediction Center.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[aspen]

This is going to be one potent non-tropical low. Most models show it peaking in the 970s, so if it manages to consolidate into a tropical cyclone, the system would start off rather strong.

[Ubuntwo]

[galaxy401]

Now appearing on the 2 day outlook.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Oct 25 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A deepening, non-tropical low pressure system with gale-force winds
is located a little more than 100 miles southeast of Cape Hatteras,
North Carolina. This gale area is forecast to move
north-northeastward for the next day or so, and could acquire some
subtropical characteristics before it merges with a frontal system
by late Tuesday. The extratropical low is then expected to meander
off the mid-Atlantic and northeast U.S. coasts on Wednesday,
bringing rain and wind impacts to portions of those areas. By
midweek the low is expected to move eastward away from the U.S.
coast, and could again acquire some subtropical characteristics by
the end of the week while it moves eastward or southeastward over
the warmer waters of the central Atlantic. For more information on
this system, including storm warnings, see products issued by your
local National Weather Service office and High Seas Forecasts issued
by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[Nimbus]

I thought maybe this would be discussed in the winter forum but I guess it may acquire some warm core attributes while over the gulf stream?

[AJC3]

Invest 94L is up