Disturbed Weather south of Cabo Verde Islands: (Is Invest 95L)

[cycloneye]

Well,is October 28 and normally this part of the basin is closed for tropical development but maybe a small window opens for this area as GFS has been showing development in the past runs and ECMWF shows vorticity. Let's have good discussions about it.

jconsor has a good thread.

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1453597005155082240

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/WxTca/status/1453811439068721176




 https://twitter.com/WxTca/status/1453811444278042636

[ChrisH-UK]

Been keeping an eye on this the last few days, GFS showed it first but now models like CMC, ECWMF, ICON etc are more coming in to line with the GFS for a change.

Here's the latest ECWMF run.

[zzh]

Closed circulation.

[MHC Tracking]

The GFS has been oddly consistent on this, and both the GEFS and Euro ensembles are fairly keen on a quick spinup TD/TS in about 60 hours. I'm getting TD 15 2019 vibes. Wouldn't surprise me to see a 10/20 slapped on this soon.

[ChrisH-UK]

Now that the sun is up there is a circulation to the west with convective development, you can see the movement in the white low level clouds. The other development should be in the chaotic area to the east under all of the high level convective grey clouds.

Source Meteosat-11 Band 3 6 hour loop. - https://col.st/UMAZR

[johngaltfla]

If it does, it's a fish.

Season is now closed for GoM and Florida.

[AlphaToOmega]

https://i.imgur.com/1SV4IYD.png
Closed circulation.

If it can get strong enough winds, it should have a name.

[cycloneye]

An area of disturbed weather in the eastern tropical Atlantic is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms several hundred
miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands. Some gradual development of
this system is possible over the next couple of days or so as the
disturbance moves generally northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. By the
middle of next week, the system is forecast to move northward over
cooler waters and further development is not expected.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[MHC Tracking]

10/20 now, I see. Wouldn't be surprised to get a quick spinup TD/TS out of this, it's very similar to TD 15 2019.

[cycloneye]

[img][img]https://i.imgur.com/79zzlJL.gif[/img][/img]

[cycloneye]

Invest 95L is up