When will the 5th Major Hurricane will form?

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Hurricane2021
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When will the 5th Major Hurricane will form?

#1 Postby Hurricane2021 » Sat Sep 11, 2021 6:58 pm

Well, we are passing by the peak of 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season, and the models are indicating 4 systems forming, but the 4th system could be special. Based on this, I decided to create this topic.
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Re: When will the 5th Major Hurricane will form?

#2 Postby Stormybajan » Sat Sep 11, 2021 7:04 pm

Hurricane2021 wrote:Well, we are passing by the peak of 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season, and the models are indicating 4 systems forming, but the 4th system could be special. Based on this, I decided to create this topic.

Fifth major? We havent even had the fourth major yet :lol:
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Re: When will the 5th Major Hurricane will form?

#3 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sat Sep 11, 2021 7:20 pm

I am going to save this for a bit later as we have not even had our 4th major hurricane yet.
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Re: When will the 5th Major Hurricane will form?

#4 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sat Sep 25, 2021 9:58 am

Ok, so Sam has officially become our 4th major hurricane. Therefore, I will say that I am officially ready to take a wild guess as this question is now appropriate.

I think it'll be Wanda, and it'll be a WCAR monster that forms near early to mid October.
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Re: When will the 5th Major Hurricane will form?

#5 Postby aspen » Sat Sep 25, 2021 10:09 am

I also think it’ll be Wanda in the WCar.
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Re: When will the 5th Major Hurricane will form?

#6 Postby kevin » Sat Sep 25, 2021 10:59 am

I think there will be 1, maybe 2 majors left this season. And I think the next one will be Wanda in the WCar. After the mess that was Wilfred, we need a worthy companion to Wilma for the W-storms.
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Re: When will the 5th Major Hurricane will form?

#7 Postby underthwx » Sat Sep 25, 2021 11:06 am

kevin wrote:I think there will be 1, maybe 2 majors left this season. And I think the next one will be Wanda in the WCar. After the mess that was Wilfred, we need a worthy companion to Wilma for the W-storms.


Kevin....I'm curious as to why the WCar?....is this based on climatology?....or some long range forecast models?...thankyou for any input you can offer...
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Re: When will the 5th Major Hurricane will form?

#8 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sat Sep 25, 2021 11:10 am

kevin wrote:I think there will be 1, maybe 2 majors left this season. And I think the next one will be Wanda in the WCar. After the mess that was Wilfred, we need a worthy companion to Wilma for the W-storms.


I gotta admit, last year when we were rumbling through the naming list, I kind of expected Wilfred to become a powerhouse Category 5 hurricane. But no, that failed to materialize. Perhaps Wanda will do something different though (not that I would want to see it of course, but intriguing thought).
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Re: When will the 5th Major Hurricane will form?

#9 Postby kevin » Sun Sep 26, 2021 3:18 pm

underthwx wrote:
kevin wrote:I think there will be 1, maybe 2 majors left this season. And I think the next one will be Wanda in the WCar. After the mess that was Wilfred, we need a worthy companion to Wilma for the W-storms.


Kevin....I'm curious as to why the WCar?....is this based on climatology?....or some long range forecast models?...thankyou for any input you can offer...


Sorry for my very late response. But yeah partly based on climatology as well as some of the long-range hints by the GFS ensemble for something brewing in the WCar. Even though tbh the new MDR disturbances seem more likely to form before any WCar system so if a WCar/GOM system will be the next MH it'll probably be a later name than Wanda.
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Re: When will the 5th Major Hurricane will form?

#10 Postby DioBrando » Sun Sep 26, 2021 3:49 pm

kevin wrote:
underthwx wrote:
kevin wrote:I think there will be 1, maybe 2 majors left this season. And I think the next one will be Wanda in the WCar. After the mess that was Wilfred, we need a worthy companion to Wilma for the W-storms.


Kevin....I'm curious as to why the WCar?....is this based on climatology?....or some long range forecast models?...thankyou for any input you can offer...


Sorry for my very late response. But yeah partly based on climatology as well as some of the long-range hints by the GFS ensemble for something brewing in the WCar. Even though tbh the new MDR disturbances seem more likely to form before any WCar system so if a WCar/GOM system will be the next MH it'll probably be a later name than Wanda.


Probably would be named Adria tbh.
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Re: When will the 5th Major Hurricane will form?

#11 Postby chaser1 » Wed Sep 29, 2021 10:46 am

Adria - Develops on October 14th. Cat 3 that develops in Central Caribbean, eventually clipping Cuba and then landfalling Cape Sable, Fla as a high end Cat 1/low end Cat 2 before phasing in with sharp E. CONUS short wave resulting in first significant cool front to sweep southward through the state.
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Re: When will the 5th Major Hurricane will form?

#12 Postby Hammy » Wed Sep 29, 2021 2:27 pm

More than likely it won't unless we have another Ophelia-type system.
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Re: RE: Re: When will the 5th Major Hurricane will form?

#13 Postby Woofde » Wed Sep 29, 2021 2:54 pm

Hammy wrote:More than likely it won't unless we have another Ophelia-type system.
I would argue the Carribean is more than capable of producing another Major. If 2020 could do 4, 2021 could certainly manage atleast 1 .
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Re: When will the 5th Major Hurricane will form?

#14 Postby Ubuntwo » Wed Sep 29, 2021 3:30 pm

Guessing a Caribbean major in November. I will be wrong :D
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Re: When will the 5th Major Hurricane will form?

#15 Postby CyclonicFury » Wed Sep 29, 2021 3:49 pm

Sometime around October 15-20 in the western Caribbean, likely the final major of the season
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Re: When will the 5th Major Hurricane will form?

#16 Postby Ryxn » Wed Sep 29, 2021 4:05 pm

Lmao Victor with 120 MPH winds

The sixth will be Adria with 140-160 MPH winds
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Re: When will the 5th Major Hurricane will form?

#17 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Oct 04, 2021 1:09 am

I'm going to guess it will be Hurricane Adria around October 18 in the NW Caribbean and eastern Gulf.
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Re: When will the 5th Major Hurricane will form?

#18 Postby Hurricane2021 » Mon Nov 01, 2021 8:19 am

Well...
2021 not produced the 5th MH so far and wnd will not likely produce more :D
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