2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Ubuntwo]

Latest Genesis forecasts: ECMF ensembles show possible Caribbean genesis.
12z GEFS ensembles, and Operationals from FSU) do not....

[url]https://i.ibb.co/z2bLqff/frcstqb.jpg [/url]
[url]https://i.ibb.co/gZWRx56/frcstqc.jpg [/url]

[url]https://i.ibb.co/tzGBPKK/frcstqa.jpg [/url]

12z and 18z GFS ensembles do have some support, moreso than the Euro ensembles which only have a few members developing.

[Category5Kaiju]

Interesting 12z run from the GFS. No major EPAC development, but a rapidly intensifying system that hits Nicaragua on the WCAR side. Hmm...

[aspen]

That was the most pathetic -ENSO October since 2007. However, the fact that Hurricane Sam was a major and reached its second 130+ kt peak during the first few days of the month automatically means it was more substantial than October 2007, even if there were no hurricanes that formed during the month.

[Europa non è lontana]

Well, after Apollo, we have something else to watch already in the Med. The 12z Nov 1, 00z Nov 2, and 06z Nov 2 GFS runs have had what appears to be a subtropical storm (?) form in the western Mediterranean at the end of this week. The 06z run has landfall east of Algiers on the 8th.



It could be nothing, only a couple of models are on board, and it is quite far out, but it bears watching if the next couple of runs also show development.

[Vince_and_Grace_fan]

Well, after Apollo, we have something else to watch already in the Med. The 12z Nov 1, 00z Nov 2, and 06z Nov 2 GFS runs have had what appears to be a subtropical storm (?) form in the western Mediterranean at the end of this week. The 06z run has landfall east of Algiers on the 8th.

https://i.imgur.com/cptw9iN.png

It could be nothing, only a couple of models are on board, and it is quite far out, but it bears watching if the next couple of runs also show development.

After 2 days there is still a lot of disagreement among the models, they develop this in some runs and drop thereafter. However, most of the models show the initial extratropical low generated by a large cut-off upper level low over that area, but it may will not have enough time over water to the subtropical transition. I thinnk the further transformation into tropical cyclone seems almost impossible now.

[xironman]

The Canadian does a Wanda with the next northeaster

[Iceresistance]

The 18z GFS has ZERO <990 MB Tropical Cyclones worldwide for the entire run!

[ChrisH-UK]

Saw this on the GFS which perked up my interest with the lower 850mb and mid levels 700mb stacked up.



Then saw the shear, nope.

[johngaltfla]

Sorry ChrisH-UK...

[wxman57]

12Z Dec 7 forecast from the 6Z GFS looks quite believable - NOT! Sure, a 1060mb high over Colorado on that run and no high at all on the 00Z run.

[Vince_and_Grace_fan]

The famous 18Z GFS in its long-range fantasy land develops a TS near Canary Islands and Madeira (from a cut-off extratropical low) which later will make landfall in Portugal.

[Iceresistance]

What is this? The 0z GFS trying to develop a tropical disturbance across the BoC?

[Iceresistance]

Pivotal Weather Plus (Need a paid Subscription) now has 6z & 18z Euro model runs, 3-hour data up to +144 hours, & new Parameters!

[AutoPenalti]

Candidate for best model run?

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1468232264333107209

[HURRICANELONNY]

Most likely a cartoon character. See yeh all in May.

[mitchell]

06 z GFS has an interesting little spin up north of Puerto Rico out about 10 days.