
What date will the first season cancel post appear ?
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
- AtlanticWind
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 1885
- Age: 66
- Joined: Sun Aug 08, 2004 9:57 pm
- Location: Plantation,Fla
What date will the first season cancel post appear ?
I will say July 20th when the long range GFS shows nothing forming . 

5 likes
- Category5Kaiju
- Category 5
- Posts: 4051
- Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2020 12:45 pm
- Location: Seattle
Re: What date will the first season cancel post appear ?
Honestly, I'm just waiting for this season to feature a Category 4 hurricane rampage through the Caribbean in late June. Maybe this will be the first season that season cancel posts fail to appear after nearly 6 years of incessantly occurring? Who knows? 
In other words, I am going to go with the highly wild and daring guess that this season will likely not feature a slew of season cancel posts.

In other words, I am going to go with the highly wild and daring guess that this season will likely not feature a slew of season cancel posts.

2 likes
Unless explicitly stated, all info in my posts is based on my own opinions and observations. Tropical storms and hurricanes can be extremely dangerous. Do not think you can beat Mother Nature. Refer to an accredited weather research agency or meteorologist if you need to make serious decisions regarding an approaching storm.
Re: What date will the first season cancel post appear ?
Category5Kaiju wrote:Honestly, I'm just waiting for this season to feature a Category 4 hurricane rampage through the Caribbean in late June. Maybe this will be the first season that season cancel posts fail to appear after nearly 6 years of incessantly occurring? Who knows?
In other words, I am going to go with the highly wild and daring guess that this season will likely not feature a slew of season cancel posts.
That would be unique enough for the name Alex for my taste.
0 likes
- AnnularCane
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 2836
- Joined: Thu Jun 08, 2006 9:18 am
- Location: Wytheville, VA
Re: What date will the first season cancel post appear ?
Today. Season cancel!
Oh, I guess you mean the first serious one?
Oh, I guess you mean the first serious one?

1 likes
"But it never rained rain. It never snowed snow. And it never blew just wind. It rained things like soup and juice. It snowed mashed potatoes and green peas. And sometimes the wind blew in storms of hamburgers." -- Judi Barrett, Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 4029
- Age: 28
- Joined: Mon Aug 17, 2015 4:16 pm
- Location: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
Re: What date will the first season cancel post appear ?
Anything past the end of July @ HR 346 

2 likes
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
- Iceresistance
- Category 5
- Posts: 9280
- Age: 21
- Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
- Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK
Re: What date will the first season cancel post appear ?
Late July/Early August when all the models show no formation
0 likes
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
- NotSparta
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 1668
- Age: 23
- Joined: Fri Aug 18, 2017 8:24 am
- Location: Naples, FL
- Contact:
Re: What date will the first season cancel post appear ?
Category5Kaiju wrote:Honestly, I'm just waiting for this season to feature a Category 4 hurricane rampage through the Caribbean in late June. Maybe this will be the first season that season cancel posts fail to appear after nearly 6 years of incessantly occurring? Who knows?
In other words, I am going to go with the highly wild and daring guess that this season will likely not feature a slew of season cancel posts.
That wouldn't work. Even 2005 had some complaints about the season being slow in August
7 likes
This post was probably an opinion of mine, and in no way is official. Please refer to http://www.hurricanes.gov for official tropical analysis and advisories.
My website, with lots of tropical wx graphics, including satellite and recon: http://cyclonicwx.com
My website, with lots of tropical wx graphics, including satellite and recon: http://cyclonicwx.com
- Category5Kaiju
- Category 5
- Posts: 4051
- Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2020 12:45 pm
- Location: Seattle
Re: What date will the first season cancel post appear ?
NotSparta wrote:Category5Kaiju wrote:Honestly, I'm just waiting for this season to feature a Category 4 hurricane rampage through the Caribbean in late June. Maybe this will be the first season that season cancel posts fail to appear after nearly 6 years of incessantly occurring? Who knows?
In other words, I am going to go with the highly wild and daring guess that this season will likely not feature a slew of season cancel posts.
That wouldn't work. Even 2005 had some complaints about the season being slow in August
Wait...seriously? I would have imagined that getting a high end Category 4 hurricane and a low end Category 5 hurricane in JULY of all months would have been a very red siren that the season was going to be a very active and hurricane-favorable year?

6 likes
Unless explicitly stated, all info in my posts is based on my own opinions and observations. Tropical storms and hurricanes can be extremely dangerous. Do not think you can beat Mother Nature. Refer to an accredited weather research agency or meteorologist if you need to make serious decisions regarding an approaching storm.
- NotSparta
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 1668
- Age: 23
- Joined: Fri Aug 18, 2017 8:24 am
- Location: Naples, FL
- Contact:
Re: What date will the first season cancel post appear ?
Category5Kaiju wrote:NotSparta wrote:Category5Kaiju wrote:Honestly, I'm just waiting for this season to feature a Category 4 hurricane rampage through the Caribbean in late June. Maybe this will be the first season that season cancel posts fail to appear after nearly 6 years of incessantly occurring? Who knows?
In other words, I am going to go with the highly wild and daring guess that this season will likely not feature a slew of season cancel posts.
That wouldn't work. Even 2005 had some complaints about the season being slow in August
Wait...seriously? I would have imagined that getting a high end Category 4 hurricane and a low end Category 5 hurricane in JULY of all months would have been a very red siren that the season was going to be a very active and hurricane-favorable year?
Indeed. Take a look at this thread:
https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?p=989419
2 likes
This post was probably an opinion of mine, and in no way is official. Please refer to http://www.hurricanes.gov for official tropical analysis and advisories.
My website, with lots of tropical wx graphics, including satellite and recon: http://cyclonicwx.com
My website, with lots of tropical wx graphics, including satellite and recon: http://cyclonicwx.com
- Category5Kaiju
- Category 5
- Posts: 4051
- Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2020 12:45 pm
- Location: Seattle
Re: What date will the first season cancel post appear ?
NotSparta wrote:Category5Kaiju wrote:NotSparta wrote:
That wouldn't work. Even 2005 had some complaints about the season being slow in August
Wait...seriously? I would have imagined that getting a high end Category 4 hurricane and a low end Category 5 hurricane in JULY of all months would have been a very red siren that the season was going to be a very active and hurricane-favorable year?
Indeed. Take a look at this thread:
https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?p=989419
Dang. I guess a season that is invulnerable to season cancel posts would require a major, long tracking, powerful MDR-born system every 3 weeks or so starting in July and ending in late October lol
1 likes
Unless explicitly stated, all info in my posts is based on my own opinions and observations. Tropical storms and hurricanes can be extremely dangerous. Do not think you can beat Mother Nature. Refer to an accredited weather research agency or meteorologist if you need to make serious decisions regarding an approaching storm.
Re: What date will the first season cancel post appear ?
IIRC, there was a New Orleans-based user who complained about the lack of activity in early August 2005. Can't find the post.
9 likes
- Category5Kaiju
- Category 5
- Posts: 4051
- Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2020 12:45 pm
- Location: Seattle
Re: What date will the first season cancel post appear ?
Teban54 wrote:IIRC, there was a New Orleans-based user who complained about the lack of activity in early August 2005. Can't find the post.
I genuinely feel great sorrow for him/her. No, like really.
1 likes
Unless explicitly stated, all info in my posts is based on my own opinions and observations. Tropical storms and hurricanes can be extremely dangerous. Do not think you can beat Mother Nature. Refer to an accredited weather research agency or meteorologist if you need to make serious decisions regarding an approaching storm.
-
- Admin
- Posts: 19990
- Age: 61
- Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
- Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)
Re: What date will the first season cancel post appear ?
These types of threads usually get locked, as this one is now. Too easy to start attacking other users, which is not allowed. Not a big deal, I just don't see this going in a productive direction.
0 likes
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: HurricaneBelle, Ulf and 176 guests