2021 TCRs

[Hurricane2021]

Alas, we now find ourselves waiting for the signature storm from the 2021 Atlantic season:



Ida.

Well, Hurricane Ida's TCR shouldn't have any surprises... the NHC should keep it at 130 kt/929 mbar

[CrazyC83]

Sam has been released. No upgrade to Cat.5.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL182021_Sam.pdf

I never felt category 5 was justified anyway. They make good points on that the Recon data supported 130 kt, and the satellite signature was slightly better - but that's it. It wasn't a T7.0 in between.

I would have made the second peak 135 kt as well, based on the 152 kt FL winds offset by SFMR of about 130 kt. But at no time did a conclusive 140 kt show up.

[CrabKingMike]

Sam has been released. No upgrade to Cat.5.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL182021_Sam.pdf

I never felt category 5 was justified anyway. They make good points on that the Recon data supported 130 kt, and the satellite signature was slightly better - but that's it. It wasn't a T7.0 in between.

I would have made the second peak 135 kt as well, based on the 152 kt FL winds offset by SFMR of about 130 kt. But at no time did a conclusive 140 kt show up.

Yeah, there's no objective support for it really. You can really only make guesses on the pressure (which introduces subjectivity), so that was best held anyways

[Sciencerocks]

I am sad but not unexpected.

[somethingfunny]

Alas, we now find ourselves waiting for the signature storm from the 2021 Atlantic season:



Ida.

I'm at the edge of my seat waiting for Rose

[cycloneye]

The EPAC is now completed with Hurricane Hilda. Ida is stilll on the pipe.

[zzh]

Rose is up

[galaxy401]

Rose got an intensity bump, that eye feature explains it.

So some of the remaining side storms are now out of the way. That just leaves the main course now. Shouldn't be that much longer since the NHC doesn't have to work on any other report.

[Hurricane Jed]

The EPAC is now completed with Hurricane Hilda. Ida is stilll on the pipe.

Did you mean still in the pipeline? Cause still on the pipe has so many directions to go. Unless that is a saying where you are from

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Ida is up and peak was 130kt.

Extract:

favorable conditions of light vertical wind shear (near 10 kt) and sea surface temperatures at or
above 30°C, led to a second round of rapid strengthening that started at 1200 UTC 28 August
and continued for the next 24 h. During this intensification phase, the maximum winds increased
from 70 kt to 90 kt in the first 12 h, and then from 90 kt a peak of 130 kt in the next 12 h.
Additionally, the central pressure fell from 986 to 929 mb. By the end of this rapid intensification
period, Ida had moved northwestward to a position not far southwest of the Mouth of the
Mississippi River (cover image). A continued northwestward motion brought the 15-n-mi-wide eye
to the Louisiana coast at Port Fourchon at 1655 UTC 29 August (Fig. 5). The maximum winds at
landfall were 130 kt – category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale – and the central
pressure was near 931 mb. As best as can be determined, the 130-kt landfall intensity is equal
to that of Hurricane Laura of August 2020 and the Last Island Hurricane of August 1856, with
these three category 4 storms tied for the strongest on record to make landfall in Louisiana west
of the Mouth of the Mississippi River2.

[CrazyC83]

Not a lot of surprises with the Ida report.

[MarioProtVI]

Not a lot of surprises with the Ida report.

I was kind of hoping they would up it to 135 kt seeing that I think some data supported it.

[MGC]

NHC pretty much disreguarded the ship reports from Port Fourchon.

From the NHC Ida TCR:

It should be noted that two ships moored at Port Fourchon reported instantaneous wind
gusts of 194 kt and 150 kt as Ida passed over. The details of these reports, including the elevation
and exposure of the instruments, are unavailable at this time, and thus they are not considered
in the landfall intensity determination or included in the data tables. This report will be updated if
detailed data from these ships becomes available.

I guess it is too hard to find out from the ship owners the type and elevation of the ship's instruments. Still likely a cat 4 though......MGC

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1511416828437966848

[Shell Mound]

https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1511416828437966848

 https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1510811513619050500



I’m not certain that I agree with him, but I’m posting this for the sake of discussion.

[SconnieCane]

https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1511416828437966848

https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1510811513619050500
I’m not certain that I agree with him, but I’m posting this for the sake of discussion.

Just purely based on satellite presentation I would have expected Ida to be slightly stronger or at least more "aggressive" wind-wise (mixing down gusts better and with more mesovorticies). I suspect that in both cases, chasers were mostly set up a bit inland due to the hazards associated with intercepting on the swampy, limited-access, highly surge-prone Louisiana coast. The highest winds with Ida probably occurred over inaccessible, (hopefully) unoccupied areas of Port Fourchon/Grand Isle. Perhaps something about Laura's angle of approach and/or the topography allowed the chasers' location (probably Lake Charles) to experience higher winds?