Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico (Is Invest 95L)
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Re: Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico
Still at 20%.The only thing i can think of is maybe they want to see if the 12z euro holds? Since the 6z was the first fun from the euro to show TC genesis.
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- Kingarabian
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Re: Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico
wxman22 wrote:Still at 20%.The only thing i can think of is maybe they want to see if the 12z euro holds? Since the 6z was the first fun from the euro to show TC genesis.
I would like to see an invest tag so we can have a quick look at the hurricane models such as the HWRF.
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Re: Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico
SoupBone wrote:Stays at 20%
Seeing I know jack about these things!I would be interested in what the folks with more knowledge think?Will it ,Won’t it, signed need. Rain!
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Harvey,Hanna,Beta,Texas Winter storm2021,Nicholas
Re: Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico
Wampadawg wrote:SoupBone wrote:Stays at 20%
Seeing I know jack about these things!I would be interested in what the folks with more knowledge think?Will it ,Won’t it, signed need. Rain!
Well the latest Euro is back to a low pressure system, maybe a weak depression. This back and forth is probably why.
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- South Texas Storms
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Re: Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico
While the chance of development is still pretty low (around 30% imo), this looks to bring much needed rain to southeast Texas later this week. Houston has a pretty good chance to see a few inches. I would be surprised if this became more than a weak TS. But you can never say never in the tropics.
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- captainbarbossa19
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Re: Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico
SoupBone wrote:Wampadawg wrote:SoupBone wrote:Stays at 20%
Seeing I know jack about these things!I would be interested in what the folks with more knowledge think?Will it ,Won’t it, signed need. Rain!
Well the latest Euro is back to a low pressure system, maybe a weak depression. This back and forth is probably why.
They might also be waiting on something to start forming. They may not raise chances until tomorrow if it starts organizing at this rate.
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Re: Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico
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Harvey,Hanna,Beta,Texas Winter storm2021,Nicholas
Re: Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico
Wampadawg wrote:https://twitter.com/tropicaltidbits/status/1541492374295064576?s=21&t=5fku2b6QInnlVyrGd22fgw
Levi seems to think everything is as it should be right now.
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- captainbarbossa19
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Re: Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico
SoupBone wrote:Wampadawg wrote:https://twitter.com/tropicaltidbits/status/1541492374295064576?s=21&t=5fku2b6QInnlVyrGd22fgw
Levi seems to think everything is as it should be right now.
That may be true, but there still seems to be more support of something forming per models even if it is weak. Real-time trends say development is slow, but not necessarily unlikely. I think tomorrow morning we should have a better idea of what may happen.
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Re: Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico
zzh wrote:https://i.imgur.com/gAOX3Yw.png
As I said I don’t know jack but want to learn what is this showing exactly?
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Harvey,Hanna,Beta,Texas Winter storm2021,Nicholas
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Re: Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico
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Re: Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico
What trouble though? We're looking at potentially several inches of much needed rain here. What are his actual concerns?
His own rainfall pic from the Euro is showing a manageable amount of rain.
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- captainbarbossa19
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Re: Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico
SoupBone wrote:
What trouble though? We're looking at potentially several inches of much needed rain here. What are his actual concerns?
His own rainfall pic from the Euro is showing a manageable amount of rain.
He seems to be implying that the Euro could be undershowing rainfall amounts. This is quite possible if a more organized system is able to develop. Imelda developed at the last minute and meandered around SE Texas. It seems like all of those events were generally unexpected.
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Re: Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico
SoupBone wrote:
What trouble though? We're looking at potentially several inches of much needed rain here. What are his actual concerns?
His own rainfall pic from the Euro is showing a manageable amount of rain.
Imelda dropped over 40 inches of rain
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Re: Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico
hurricane2025 wrote:SoupBone wrote:
What trouble though? We're looking at potentially several inches of much needed rain here. What are his actual concerns?
His own rainfall pic from the Euro is showing a manageable amount of rain.
Imelda dropped over 40 inches of rain
Well that’s incredibly irresponsible of him without providing a reasoning for that type of forecast. Do his paid subscribers get the data that is backing the tweet?
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- captainbarbossa19
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Re: Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico
SoupBone wrote:hurricane2025 wrote:SoupBone wrote:
What trouble though? We're looking at potentially several inches of much needed rain here. What are his actual concerns?
His own rainfall pic from the Euro is showing a manageable amount of rain.
Imelda dropped over 40 inches of rain
Well that’s incredibly irresponsible of him without providing a reasoning for that type of forecast. Do his paid subscribers get the data that is backing the tweet?
Well let's just say that this system will not be moving fast. After moving onshore Thursday, the Euro still shows it in Texas on Saturday. That's rather slow.
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Re: Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico
SoupBone wrote:
Well that’s incredibly irresponsible of him without providing a reasoning for that type of forecast. Do his paid subscribers get the data that is backing the tweet?
JB is not known for his discretion..
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Re: Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico
captainbarbossa19 wrote:SoupBone wrote:hurricane2025 wrote:
Imelda dropped over 40 inches of rain
Well that’s incredibly irresponsible of him without providing a reasoning for that type of forecast. Do his paid subscribers get the data that is backing the tweet?
Well let's just say that this system will not be moving fast. After moving onshore Thursday, the Euro still shows it in Texas on Saturday. That's rather slow.
I completely get that, don’t misunderstand me. But when our other pro-Mets post a forecast, especially one with potentially catastrophic results, they back it up with a scientific explanation. They don’t just drop a bomb then walk away.
These next few model runs will hopefully provide some more consistency. 18Z GFS plows through central Texas after landfall in the Corpus area. On my phone so I don’t see the pinpoint spot.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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