2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

[weeniepatrol]

Furthermore, we are only behind 2021 for July because the opposite phase of the MJO was overhead.

[aspen]

Yea that’s some ridiculous ridging on the weekly, everything is pushed below the Antilles till end of August. This is definitely suspect imo. EPAC still at it because of it.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220714/e7c203361c94c6a689d3af9fac61402d.jpg

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220714/2b4fd7688c8cf80dd209ebcd0618d3e5.jpg

Maybe it’s just the Euro going overboard with the ridging like it sometimes does…but it has been rather accurate or even under-estimating it, like with Bonnie.

It feels like something changed starting in early October last year, with excessive ridging that prevents Atlantic development and an unusually active EPac for a strong Nina year. We saw this in the last two months of the 2021 season, with every tropical wave running into SA/CA and two landfalling EPac hurricanes. Then once the 2022 season started, the trend continued; the EPac started off with a Mexico hurricane landfall and has pumped out 4 (or 5 consecutive) hurricanes, while Bonnie barely existed in the Atlantic because ridging was too strong.

I’m starting to get suspect about this season. It feels like there’s a key factor we’ve missed — Triple-dip Nina seasons are so rare that it wouldn’t be surprising if we did miss some factor associated with one — and it could end up resulting in far lower activity/ACE than most forecasts called for. Maybe activity closer to 2018 than 2017/20/21. Maybe the Atlantic ends up being suppressed for a good portion of ASO and we get a near-average season. Or maybe I end up eating my words in 4-6 weeks.

[skyline385]

Chances of a Tropical Depression (EPS calls them Tropical Cyclone for whatever reason) have gone up from last weekly

[skyline385]

Yea that’s some ridiculous ridging on the weekly, everything is pushed below the Antilles till end of August. This is definitely suspect imo. EPAC still at it because of it.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220714/e7c203361c94c6a689d3af9fac61402d.jpg

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220714/2b4fd7688c8cf80dd209ebcd0618d3e5.jpg

Maybe it’s just the Euro going overboard with the ridging like it sometimes does…but it has been rather accurate or even under-estimating it, like with Bonnie.

It feels like something changed starting in early October last year, with excessive ridging that prevents Atlantic development and an unusually active EPac for a strong Nina year. We saw this in the last two months of the 2021 season, with every tropical wave running into SA/CA and two landfalling EPac hurricanes. Then once the 2022 season started, the trend continued; the EPac started off with a Mexico hurricane landfall and has pumped out 4 (or 5 consecutive) hurricanes, while Bonnie barely existed in the Atlantic because ridging was too strong.

I’m starting to get suspect about this season. It feels like there’s a key factor we’ve missed — Triple-dip Nina seasons are so rare that it wouldn’t be surprising if we did miss some factor associated with one — and it could end up resulting in far lower activity/ACE than most forecasts called for. Maybe activity closer to 2018 than 2017/20/21. Maybe the Atlantic ends up being suppressed for a good portion of ASO and we get a near-average season. Or maybe I end up eating my words in 4-6 weeks.

The EPAC trend from last year is very interesting. Also, in addition to the ridging, the MJO isn't helping as well. Both the EPS weekly and extended GEFS now how it parked and suppressing the Atlantic. GEFS does have a small break of rising cell but we will have to see if its enough.

[Category5Kaiju]

Yea that’s some ridiculous ridging on the weekly, everything is pushed below the Antilles till end of August. This is definitely suspect imo. EPAC still at it because of it.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220714/e7c203361c94c6a689d3af9fac61402d.jpg

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220714/2b4fd7688c8cf80dd209ebcd0618d3e5.jpg

Maybe it’s just the Euro going overboard with the ridging like it sometimes does…but it has been rather accurate or even under-estimating it, like with Bonnie.

It feels like something changed starting in early October last year, with excessive ridging that prevents Atlantic development and an unusually active EPac for a strong Nina year. We saw this in the last two months of the 2021 season, with every tropical wave running into SA/CA and two landfalling EPac hurricanes. Then once the 2022 season started, the trend continued; the EPac started off with a Mexico hurricane landfall and has pumped out 4 (or 5 consecutive) hurricanes, while Bonnie barely existed in the Atlantic because ridging was too strong.

I’m starting to get suspect about this season. It feels like there’s a key factor we’ve missed — Triple-dip Nina seasons are so rare that it wouldn’t be surprising if we did miss some factor associated with one — and it could end up resulting in far lower activity/ACE than most forecasts called for. Maybe activity closer to 2018 than 2017/20/21. Maybe the Atlantic ends up being suppressed for a good portion of ASO and we get a near-average season. Or maybe I end up eating my words in 4-6 weeks.

In quiet periods like this, I tend to shift my eyes to other basins to get a clue as to what may happen going forward. The EPAC (as you mentioned) seems to be receiving all of the moisture from Africa and allowing it to generate storms. But then you look at the WPAC, and it's eerily quiet there. It honestly amazes me at how the EPAC is able to be this active in a third year La Nina, but it amazes me even further with how the EPAC is even beating the WPAC in total activity thus far. I mean, you would think that if Pacific conditions were indeed favorable, then both the WPAC and the EPAC would be lighting up, but that's simply not the case. In fact, models do not seem to be very enthusiastic about WPAC activity for the rest of this month.

Now as for third year La Ninas, the sample size is indeed very small, but if we were to look at some of the most talked about analog years for this year (1996, 1999, 2000, 2008, and 2011), none of those years seemed to have an extremely potent ridging issue that really capped activity. I genuinely think that this ridging thing is temporary, it's hard to believe that we would have a season with so strong of such that we get near or only slightly above average activity. Not to mention if anything, the traditional Atlantic Ocean track favors recurves rather than slamming into South America haha

[skyline385]

Yea that’s some ridiculous ridging on the weekly, everything is pushed below the Antilles till end of August. This is definitely suspect imo. EPAC still at it because of it.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220714/e7c203361c94c6a689d3af9fac61402d.jpg

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220714/2b4fd7688c8cf80dd209ebcd0618d3e5.jpg

Maybe it’s just the Euro going overboard with the ridging like it sometimes does…but it has been rather accurate or even under-estimating it, like with Bonnie.

It feels like something changed starting in early October last year, with excessive ridging that prevents Atlantic development and an unusually active EPac for a strong Nina year. We saw this in the last two months of the 2021 season, with every tropical wave running into SA/CA and two landfalling EPac hurricanes. Then once the 2022 season started, the trend continued; the EPac started off with a Mexico hurricane landfall and has pumped out 4 (or 5 consecutive) hurricanes, while Bonnie barely existed in the Atlantic because ridging was too strong.

I’m starting to get suspect about this season. It feels like there’s a key factor we’ve missed — Triple-dip Nina seasons are so rare that it wouldn’t be surprising if we did miss some factor associated with one — and it could end up resulting in far lower activity/ACE than most forecasts called for. Maybe activity closer to 2018 than 2017/20/21. Maybe the Atlantic ends up being suppressed for a good portion of ASO and we get a near-average season. Or maybe I end up eating my words in 4-6 weeks.

In quiet periods like this, I tend to shift my eyes to other basins to get a clue as to what may happen going forward. The EPAC (as you mentioned) seems to be receiving all of the moisture from Africa and allowing it to generate storms. But then you look at the WPAC, and it's eerily quiet there. It honestly amazes me at how the EPAC is able to be this active in a third year La Nina, but it amazes me even further with how the EPAC is even beating the WPAC in total activity thus far. I mean, you would think that if Pacific conditions were indeed favorable, then both the WPAC and the EPAC would be lighting up, but that's simply not the case. In fact, models do not seem to be very enthusiastic about WPAC activity for the rest of this month.

Now as for third year La Ninas, the sample size is indeed very small, but if we were to look at some of the most talked about analog years for this year (1996, 1999, 2000, 2008, and 2011), none of those years seemed to have an extremely potent ridging issue that really capped activity. I genuinely think that this ridging thing is temporary, it's hard to believe that we would have a season with so strong of such that we get near or only slightly above average activity. Not to mention if anything, the traditional Atlantic Ocean track favors recurves rather than slamming into South America haha

The WPAC is currently at less than half its average ACE and 17 of its current 22.4 ACE was generated from Malakas back in April, thats how bad it is doing currently

[tarheelprogrammer]

So, is this season still showing overall favorable set up? Getting mixed feelings in this thread. Any METS with an opinion? Just curious.

[WiscoWx02]

So, is this season still showing overall favorable set up? Getting mixed feelings in this thread. Any METS with an opinion? Just curious.

We are just at the time of year where the models show nothing and edge away from favorability and people start to second guess if it will be an active season. Happens every year, definitely think this season will be on the more active side still. Still stand by active but not hyperactive.

[skyline385]

So, is this season still showing overall favorable set up? Getting mixed feelings in this thread. Any METS with an opinion? Just curious.

Still too early to say anything imo, remember 1999 (which is Webb's favorite analog at the moment) also was completely quiet till mid-August and then went bonkers to get ACE to 177. However, 99 was a second year Nina which strengthened intensely during the season.

[tolakram]

So, is this season still showing overall favorable set up? Getting mixed feelings in this thread. Any METS with an opinion? Just curious.

I'm in the active not hyperactive camp. I think we've seen a lot of over hyping so far this season. The only thing we know at this point is that we don't know in my opinion.

[ElectricStorm]

Yeah I'm also in the active but not hyperactive group. My preseason poll numbers were 19/9/4 and I still think that will be roughly what this season ends up with. So pretty active but not anything extreme.

[AtlanticWind]

I dont believe a inactive mid july means anything, it is very normal
High pressure almost always strengthens and SAL is usually at its peak.

As we get into the last week of July and first week of August an uptick in activity
becomes a little more possible and after that chances increase exponentially.

We will see how conditions evolve as we get into August but nothing happening
now means much on this seasons potential activity. Also storms that form
in July are generally weaker and less impactfull anyway with a few rare exceptions.

Just my thoughts on the season so far.

[toad strangler]

I dont believe a inactive mid july means anything, it is very normal
High pressure almost always strengthens and SAL is usually at its peak.

As we get into the last week of July and first week of August an uptick in activity
becomes a little more possible and after that chances increase exponentially.

We will see how conditions evolve as we get into August but nothing happening
now means much on this seasons potential activity. Also storms that form
in July are generally weaker and less impactfull anyway with a few rare exceptions.

Just my thoughts on the season so far.

Agree with your main sentiments and I just posted similar content in another thread that probably belongs here …..

In May and June there was some teeth grinding over the lack of pre season or early season shorties as if it was new climatology for the Atlantic Basin to expect them.

That, IMO translates into more and more unfounded expectations for a period like all of July into the first half of August where it’s standard climatology to see SAL ridden mid lever dry air and wind shear across much of the usual development zones.

[Blown Away]

So, is this season still showing overall favorable set up? Getting mixed feelings in this thread. Any METS with an opinion? Just curious.

Still too early to say anything imo, remember 1999 (which is Webb's favorite analog at the moment) also was completely quiet till mid-August and then went bonkers to get ACE to 177. However, 99 was a second year Nina which strengthened intensely during the season.

https://i.imgur.com/4nEyynu.png

Current modeling suggests strong HP and action in the lower latitudes moving into Caribbean. 1999 had many Central & Western Atlantic recurves. Floyd in NC, Bret in TX, and wrong way Lenny were the biggies. If we are leaning on current modeling, IMO 99 is not a good analog.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1547764114130227201

[underthwx]

Yea that’s some ridiculous ridging on the weekly, everything is pushed below the Antilles till end of August. This is definitely suspect imo. EPAC still at it because of it.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220714/e7c203361c94c6a689d3af9fac61402d.jpg

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220714/2b4fd7688c8cf80dd209ebcd0618d3e5.jpg

Maybe it’s just the Euro going overboard with the ridging like it sometimes does…but it has been rather accurate or even under-estimating it, like with Bonnie.

It feels like something changed starting in early October last year, with excessive ridging that prevents Atlantic development and an unusually active EPac for a strong Nina year. We saw this in the last two months of the 2021 season, with every tropical wave running into SA/CA and two landfalling EPac hurricanes. Then once the 2022 season started, the trend continued; the EPac started off with a Mexico hurricane landfall and has pumped out 4 (or 5 consecutive) hurricanes, while Bonnie barely existed in the Atlantic because ridging was too strong.

I’m starting to get suspect about this season. It feels like there’s a key factor we’ve missed — Triple-dip Nina seasons are so rare that it wouldn’t be surprising if we did miss some factor associated with one — and it could end up resulting in far lower activity/ACE than most forecasts called for. Maybe activity closer to 2018 than 2017/20/21. Maybe the Atlantic ends up being suppressed for a good portion of ASO and we get a near-average season. Or maybe I end up eating my words in 4-6 weeks.

In quiet periods like this, I tend to shift my eyes to other basins to get a clue as to what may happen going forward. The EPAC (as you mentioned) seems to be receiving all of the moisture from Africa and allowing it to generate storms. But then you look at the WPAC, and it's eerily quiet there. It honestly amazes me at how the EPAC is able to be this active in a third year La Nina, but it amazes me even further with how the EPAC is even beating the WPAC in total activity thus far. I mean, you would think that if Pacific conditions were indeed favorable, then both the WPAC and the EPAC would be lighting up, but that's simply not the case. In fact, models do not seem to be very enthusiastic about WPAC activity for the rest of this month.

Now as for third year La Ninas, the sample size is indeed very small, but if we were to look at some of the most talked about analog years for this year (1996, 1999, 2000, 2008, and 2011), none of those years seemed to have an extremely potent ridging issue that really capped activity. I genuinely think that this ridging thing is temporary, it's hard to believe that we would have a season with so strong of such that we get near or only slightly above average activity. Not to mention if anything, the traditional Atlantic Ocean track favors recurves rather than slamming into South America haha

Would you be able to make a comparison to last year's season in the WPAC, to the season this year so far? I wonder if the weather patterns are similar to 2021?

[Category5Kaiju]

Maybe it’s just the Euro going overboard with the ridging like it sometimes does…but it has been rather accurate or even under-estimating it, like with Bonnie.

It feels like something changed starting in early October last year, with excessive ridging that prevents Atlantic development and an unusually active EPac for a strong Nina year. We saw this in the last two months of the 2021 season, with every tropical wave running into SA/CA and two landfalling EPac hurricanes. Then once the 2022 season started, the trend continued; the EPac started off with a Mexico hurricane landfall and has pumped out 4 (or 5 consecutive) hurricanes, while Bonnie barely existed in the Atlantic because ridging was too strong.

I’m starting to get suspect about this season. It feels like there’s a key factor we’ve missed — Triple-dip Nina seasons are so rare that it wouldn’t be surprising if we did miss some factor associated with one — and it could end up resulting in far lower activity/ACE than most forecasts called for. Maybe activity closer to 2018 than 2017/20/21. Maybe the Atlantic ends up being suppressed for a good portion of ASO and we get a near-average season. Or maybe I end up eating my words in 4-6 weeks.

In quiet periods like this, I tend to shift my eyes to other basins to get a clue as to what may happen going forward. The EPAC (as you mentioned) seems to be receiving all of the moisture from Africa and allowing it to generate storms. But then you look at the WPAC, and it's eerily quiet there. It honestly amazes me at how the EPAC is able to be this active in a third year La Nina, but it amazes me even further with how the EPAC is even beating the WPAC in total activity thus far. I mean, you would think that if Pacific conditions were indeed favorable, then both the WPAC and the EPAC would be lighting up, but that's simply not the case. In fact, models do not seem to be very enthusiastic about WPAC activity for the rest of this month.

Now as for third year La Ninas, the sample size is indeed very small, but if we were to look at some of the most talked about analog years for this year (1996, 1999, 2000, 2008, and 2011), none of those years seemed to have an extremely potent ridging issue that really capped activity. I genuinely think that this ridging thing is temporary, it's hard to believe that we would have a season with so strong of such that we get near or only slightly above average activity. Not to mention if anything, the traditional Atlantic Ocean track favors recurves rather than slamming into South America haha

Would you be able to make a comparison to last year's season in the WPAC, to the season this year so far? I wonder if the weather patterns are similar to 2021?

*See the WPAC thread for a discussion on this*

[cycloneye]

FYI= There is a thread for 2022 WPAC Season, thank you.

[LarryWx]

I’m starting to get suspect about this season. It feels like there’s a key factor we’ve missed — Triple-dip Nina seasons are so rare that it wouldn’t be surprising if we did miss some factor associated with one — and it could end up resulting in far lower activity/ACE than most forecasts called for. Maybe activity closer to 2018 than 2017/20/21. Maybe the Atlantic ends up being suppressed for a good portion of ASO and we get a near-average season. Or maybe I end up eating my words in 4-6 weeks.

I think you MAY be onto something. Although there isn't a large sample, there are just enough third year La Nina seasons (seven) to make me feel it's worth it to analyze them. So, I just did so. What I found is the suggestion that third year La Nina seasons tend to be a good bit quieter than the respective prior (second year La Nina) seasons. Not a guarantee by any means but just a significant tendency. To find third year La Nina seasons, I used Eric Webb's ONI table for prior to 1950 and the CPC ONI table for 1950+. Here they are: 1874, 1894, 1910, 1917, 1956, 1975, and 2000.

1874: not as impactful nor as potent as 1873 though one H hit the FL panhandle

1894: not nearly as impactful nor as potent as the big impacting 1893 though it was still impactful and potent with one H hitting the FL Panhandle and another H hitting SW FL

1910: not nearly as impactful nor nearly as potent as the big impacting 1909 though a MH hit SW FL

1917: not as impactful nor nearly as potent as 1916 though a MH hit the FL panhandle

1956: not nearly as impactful nor nearly as potent as the big impacting 1955 though H Flossy hit the FL panhandle

1975: not nearly as impactful as though slightly more potent than 1974 with 1 MH hitting the FL Panhandle (Eloise)

2000: not nearly as impactful nor nearly as potent as 1999 but it still was pretty impactful and potent, including 2 TS hits in FL Panhandle (Gordon and Helene)

So, this suggests to me for third year La Nina seasons:
- a tendency to be both less impactful and potent than the prior season
- a tendency for W FL to be hit by at least one strong TS to MH, especially the FL panhandle


Some more comparisons of the seven third year Nina seasons to the prior (second year Nina) seasons:
- # of MH ~50% lower on average (2.0 v 3.9)
- # of MH landfalls ~60% lower on average (1.3 vs 3.3)
- # of deaths ~95% lower on average (~150 vs ~2,800 with deaths far lower than prior year all seven years)
- $ of damage range 72% to 99.7% lower
- ACE 40% lower on average (79 vs 133)

So, let's see whether or not 2022 ends up less impactful and less potent than 2021. With 2021 having had quite an impact ($81 billion damage) as well as having been potent (146 ace), 2022 could still be very impactful and rather potent even if a good bit weaker.

[Blown Away]

I’m starting to get suspect about this season. It feels like there’s a key factor we’ve missed — Triple-dip Nina seasons are so rare that it wouldn’t be surprising if we did miss some factor associated with one — and it could end up resulting in far lower activity/ACE than most forecasts called for. Maybe activity closer to 2018 than 2017/20/21. Maybe the Atlantic ends up being suppressed for a good portion of ASO and we get a near-average season. Or maybe I end up eating my words in 4-6 weeks.

I think you MAY be onto something. Although there isn't a large sample, there are just enough third year La Nina seasons (seven) to make me feel it's worth it to analyze them. So, I just did so. What I found is the suggestion that third year La Nina seasons tend to be a good bit quieter than the respective prior (second year La Nina) seasons. Not a guarantee by any means but just a significant tendency. To find third year La Nina seasons, I used Eric Webb's ONI table for prior to 1950 and the CPC ONI table for 1950+. Here they are: 1874, 1894, 1910, 1917, 1956, 1975, and 2000.

1874: not as impactful nor as potent as 1873 though one H hit the FL panhandle

1894: not nearly as impactful nor as potent as the big impacting 1893 though it was still impactful and potent with one H hitting the FL Panhandle and another H hitting SW FL

1910: not nearly as impactful nor nearly as potent as the big impacting 1909 though a MH hit SW FL

1917: not as impactful nor nearly as potent as 1916 though a MH hit the FL panhandle

1956: not nearly as impactful nor nearly as potent as the big impacting 1955 though H Flossy hit the FL panhandle

1975: not nearly as impactful as though slightly more potent than 1974 with 1 MH hitting the FL Panhandle (Eloise)

2000: not nearly as impactful nor nearly as potent as 1999 but it still was pretty impactful and potent, including 2 TS hits in FL Panhandle (Gordon and Helene)

So, this suggests to me for third year La Nina seasons:
- a tendency to be both less impactful and potent than the prior season
- a tendency for W FL to be hit by at least one strong TS to MH, especially the FL panhandle


Some more comparisons of the seven third year Nina seasons to the prior (second year Nina) seasons:
- # of MH ~50% lower on average (2.0 v 3.9)
- # of MH landfalls ~60% lower on average (1.3 vs 3.3)
- # of deaths ~95% lower on average (~150 vs ~2,800 with deaths far lower than prior year all seven years)
- $ of damage range 72% to 99.7% lower
- ACE 40% lower on average (79 vs 133)

So, let's see whether or not 2022 ends up less impactful and less potent than 2021. With 2021 having had quite an impact ($81 billion damage) as well as having been potent (146 ace), 2022 could still be very impactful and rather potent even if a good bit weaker.

LarryWx, here is a map of the analog years you selected. IMO, very representative of what we may see. Early development in Central Atlantic and recurve, long trackers into CA/MX from strong HP, and late season Western Caribbean action. All typical of a La Nina type pattern. JMHO