Will 2022 feature a major hurricane?

aspen · #1 Postby **aspen** » Tue Sep 13, 2022 5:50 pm

It’s already September 12th with no MH, so I feel like it’s about time to ask this question. Mods, can you make a poll?

Right now I’m going to say no. It has been way too unfavorable this year in the deep tropics, and the very low success rate of invests (only 31% before 96L was tagged) means it’s less likely any given AOI even has the chance to intensify into a MH.

#2 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Sep 13, 2022 5:53 pm

Made a poll about this question that will close for voting on September 23rd at 6:52 PM EDT.

InfernoFlameCat · #3 Postby **InfernoFlameCat** » Tue Sep 13, 2022 5:57 pm

Yes. Almost definitely. Late September is our best shot at it though due to MJO.

Hammy · #4 Postby **Hammy** » Tue Sep 13, 2022 6:07 pm

Voted no as the safe answer but somewhat on the fence.

CFS continues to show activity well into mid to late October, but because of the model's resolution and the types of waves we're getting this year, it's difficult to determine this time whether these large areas in the tropics that it's showing are strong storms or broad waves.

ElectricStorm · #5 Postby **ElectricStorm** » Tue Sep 13, 2022 7:03 pm

Yes I think there will be, most likely there will be one in October or perhaps later this month, although I don't really see us getting more than 2 this year.

This may be a pretty hot take but I think there's a nonzero chance our current invest is a candidate to become one. If it can avoid the islands there could certainly be a better environment for it down the road. The chances of it actually becoming a major right now are obviously low but I just wanted to throw that out there as a possibility.

#6 Postby **AJC3** » Tue Sep 13, 2022 7:39 pm

While the constant pattern of wave breaking and dry/stable air intrusions has really done a number on the MDR this season, I think we'll be able get a Cat 3 or better to develop in situ over the western Caribbean later in the season.

Hurricane2022 · #7 Postby **Hurricane2022** » Tue Sep 13, 2022 8:19 pm

Maybe.. (No :lol:

)

I think that Earl was a major hurricane.
But i don't think that NHC will upgrade it.

Category5Kaiju · #8 Postby **Category5Kaiju** » Tue Sep 13, 2022 8:34 pm

ElectricStorm wrote:Yes I think there will be, most likely there will be one in October or perhaps later this month, although I don't really see us getting more than 2 this year.

This may be a pretty hot take but I think there's a nonzero chance our current invest is a candidate to become one. If it can avoid the islands there could certainly be a better environment for it down the road. The chances of it actually becoming a major right now are obviously low but I just wanted to throw that out there as a possibility.

Yeah I agree completely with your take. In fact, for those who think a major is not possible anymore, I'd advise to look at a rather simple but telling example of how that could be violated: 1929.

LarryWx · #9 Postby **LarryWx** » Tue Sep 13, 2022 9:28 pm

Yes. Third year cold ENSO analogs and general active era La Niña climo say very high chance despite the lack of one through Sept 15th (projecting none through then). And still a decent shot at a second one.

#10 Postby **Gums** » Sat Sep 17, 2022 10:49 am

Salute!

Agreed Larry, et al.

Remember Michael? Then we had Opal back in 95.

I mostly watch the Campeche wx this time of year.

Gums sends...

Hurricaneman · #11 Postby **Hurricaneman** » Sat Sep 17, 2022 11:19 am

Fiona on the recurve

#12 Postby **AJC3** » Mon Sep 19, 2022 5:35 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:Fiona on the recurve

Early W (can't see this NOT getting to 100kt)

Teban54 · #13 Postby **Teban54** » Mon Sep 19, 2022 5:43 pm

Storm2k: 2022 will not have one single major hurricane, season cancel

The Atlantic: How about two?

Iceresistance · #14 Postby **Iceresistance** » Mon Sep 19, 2022 6:53 pm

Teban54 wrote:Storm2k: 2022 will not have one single major hurricane, season cancel

The Atlantic: How about two?

More like

Fiona: Prepare for trouble!

Gaston or Hermine: I'll make it double trouble!

Category5Kaiju · #15 Postby **Category5Kaiju** » Mon Sep 19, 2022 8:15 pm

It honestly gives me a good chuckle regarding how merely weeks ago this question had to be asked, and now there's a very high chance we are going to see not just one but 2 major hurricanes in the span of a week or so.

Teban54 · #16 Postby **Teban54** » Tue Sep 20, 2022 12:49 am

Yes.

Fiona is now a major hurricane at the 2am ET intermediate advisory.

YouTube · #17 Postby **NotSparta** » Tue Sep 20, 2022 1:01 am

Man... not even a week later and some of these takes aged like milk. Just goes to show you how fast things can change in the tropics in September

Teban54 · #18 Postby **Teban54** » Tue Sep 20, 2022 1:04 am

NotSparta wrote:Man... not even a week later and some of these takes aged like milk. Just goes to show you how fast things can change in the tropics in September

Even people who voted yes were betting on October. Not September 20 near where Earl failed to become a major (and possibly soon another one in the WCar in late September), lol.

Hammy · #19 Postby **Hammy** » Tue Sep 20, 2022 2:05 am

Teban54 wrote:
NotSparta wrote:Man... not even a week later and some of these takes aged like milk. Just goes to show you how fast things can change in the tropics in September

Even people who voted yes were betting on October. Not September 20 near where Earl failed to become a major (and possibly soon another one in the WCar in late September), lol.

Testament to how bad the models are doing this year. Just 72 hours before Fiona formed, it seemed possible we could've gone until the last week of the month with nothing.

Teban54 · #20 Postby **Teban54** » Tue Sep 27, 2022 9:13 am

Talk about being a late boomer...
https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1574668489461112833