ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Category5Kaiju]

Great video Mark. Here were the probabilities from CPC in January 12th monthly update. They had El Niño at 51% for ASO however, I guess that number will go down based on what is occuring now and that CFSv2 forecast that Mark showed.

https://i.imgur.com/5soth4J.jpg

Unless I see evidence heavily pointing toward one extreme (El Nino or La Nina), I’m willing to place my bets that 2023 will end up as a neutral year. My preliminary guess is around dead neutral, maybe plus or minus 1 degree C.

[cycloneye]

The timeframe and strengh of the MJO will be the key.

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1618382282804580352

[jconsor]

Interesting post by meteorologist Scott Yuknis from Climate Impact Company:
https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/ur ... 9413766144

"Dynamic models like El Nino by June 2023 but historical precedent does not agree...
All leading operational models (BOM, ECM, and CFS) currently indicate an El Nino onset by June. However, the historical precedent for moderately negative ONI during the final NOV/DEC/JAN of a lengthy La Nina episode indicate the following June Nino34 SSTA is in the El Nino range in only 2 of 8 opportunities."

[Category5Kaiju]

Interesting post by meteorologist Scott Yuknis from Climate Impact Company:
https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/ur ... 9413766144

"Dynamic models like El Nino by June 2023 but historical precedent does not agree...
All leading operational models (BOM, ECM, and CFS) currently indicate an El Nino onset by June. However, the historical precedent for moderately negative ONI during the final NOV/DEC/JAN of a lengthy La Nina episode indicate the following June Nino34 SSTA is in the El Nino range in only 2 of 8 opportunities."

There's also this:

"The projection of El Nino by June 2023 by leading operational models is certainly possible, there's a lot of very warm anomalous water in the equatorial Pacific subsurface west of 160W longitude, but historically El Nino has a 25% chance of developing that quickly when moderate La Nina is still in-place at the beginning of the year."

The key here is that the La Nina is still very formidable, and as a result, the longer this lasts, the harder it will be to get an El Nino as early as the models are suggesting. Looks like he is banking on neutral conditions for 2023 rather than anything "child"-related (whether it is the "boy" or the "girl" )

[cycloneye]

La Niña Modoki.

 https://twitter.com/jnmet/status/1618614922283462656

[Kingarabian]

Weaker trades in the EPAC and stronger trades in the CPAC/DL is a sign that La Nina is in control though.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1619754354332033024

[cycloneye]

La Niña likely living in borrowed time says Webb.

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1619779538241884160




 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1619781758228234240

[Yellow Evan]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1619790509014413312

[Kingarabian]

The IOD and SPAC currently are more welcoming for an ENSO flip but the PDO and PMM remain negative.

Let's see what happens in February because the models show an exceptionally strong trade burst all the way into the first week of March. The strongest trade burst in the last 6 months.

[cycloneye]

No change in the CPC weekly update as Niño 3.4 remains at -0.6C.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf

[Yellow Evan]

The IOD and SPAC currently are more welcoming for an ENSO flip but the PDO and PMM remain negative.

Let's see what happens in February because the models show an exceptionally strong trade burst all the way into the first week of March. The strongest trade burst in the last 6 months.

PMM has been positive for a while. PDO has weakened drastically in the last month (but will probably reverse itself some over the next week).

[Kingarabian]

The IOD and SPAC currently are more welcoming for an ENSO flip but the PDO and PMM remain negative.

Let's see what happens in February because the models show an exceptionally strong trade burst all the way into the first week of March. The strongest trade burst in the last 6 months.

PMM has been positive for a while. PDO has weakened drastically in the last month (but will probably reverse itself some over the next week).

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733552978572869632/1069063940836958248/IMG_3912.png

I'm not sure what they're using to calculate the PMM but just looking at different SST maps, it looks negative.

[Yellow Evan]

The IOD and SPAC currently are more welcoming for an ENSO flip but the PDO and PMM remain negative.

Let's see what happens in February because the models show an exceptionally strong trade burst all the way into the first week of March. The strongest trade burst in the last 6 months.

PMM has been positive for a while. PDO has weakened drastically in the last month (but will probably reverse itself some over the next week).

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733552978572869632/1069063940836958248/IMG_3912.png

I'm not sure what they're using to calculate the PMM but just looking at different SST maps, it looks negative.

PMM is 0-30N SSTA compared to 0-20S SSTS from 90-170W I believe. Southern tropics being so cold makes it easy to be positive.

https://psl.noaa.gov/data/timeseries/mo ... mmsst.data

[Kingarabian]

PMM has been positive for a while. PDO has weakened drastically in the last month (but will probably reverse itself some over the next week).

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733552978572869632/1069063940836958248/IMG_3912.png

I'm not sure what they're using to calculate the PMM but just looking at different SST maps, it looks negative.

PMM is 0-30N SSTA compared to 0-20S SSTS from 90-170W I believe. Southern tropics being so cold makes it easy to be positive.

https://psl.noaa.gov/data/timeseries/mo ... mmsst.data

Makes sense then. Because the anomalies associated with it in the northern tropics arent impressive.

[cycloneye]

BoM is all in with El Niño for Summer.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1620593224187543552

[zzzh]

Cansips literally forecast dateline EWB from Feb to Dec... Not sure why it has a weak El Nino.

[Iceresistance]

30 Day SOI is now below +10 again, 90 day SOI is at +11.6, it used to be at +14 at the start of last month.

[Kingarabian]

Strong EWB on the 30 day CFS. Haven't seen the trades this fast in a while.


WWB on the 90 day CFS


This graphic below illustrates the typical La Nina to El Nino transition in relation to the PMM and PDO.


We're in the Jan-April period where a downwelling KW should be moving east into the EPAC. This currently looks like what's happening but this months trade burst could really affect that process.