Early thoughts on the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season

[Gums]

Salute!

Gonna go back with my theory( and others) of less Gulf storms with El Nino, although this year we had some surprises. So the Carib things go to Mexico or central America and Atlantic ones to Carolinas and Virginia.

So I see an "average" storm season like 15 or so named, 8 hurricanes and 4 majors. I am also thinking the east coast is overdue.

Paid my annual dues this morning and hope others support this outstanding site.

Gums sends...

[Abdullah]

2015 redux

[HurricaneEnzo]

woops

[HurricaneEnzo]

Until is shows any signs of relenting I am calling for an uber rare quadruple dip La Nina next season . Having never seen a quadruple dip personally I am going to guess it will be very simliar to this year activity wise.

[ncforecaster89]

This time last year I felt confident La Nina was going to transition to warm Neutral by ASO. I was wrong, obviously.

I’ll be even more surprised if ENSO doesn’t cross over to at least the warm side of Neutral by ASO and suspect it’s more likely to be a full-fledged El Nino, albeit not an intense one (e.g., 1997, 2015).

Consequently, I’m anticipating a second season of slightly-below normal ACE and highly doubt the past 3 year string of Cat 4 USA mainland landfalls will continue into 2023.

[CrazyC83]

This time last year I felt confident La Nina was going to transition to warm Neutral by ASO. I was wrong, obviously.

I’ll be even more surprised if ENSO doesn’t cross over to at least the warm side of Neutral by ASO and suspect it’s more likely to be a full-fledged El Nino, albeit not an intense one (e.g., 1997, 2015).

Consequently, I’m anticipating a second season of slightly-below normal ACE and highly doubt the past 3 year string of Cat 4 USA mainland landfalls will continue into 2023.

An inactive season doesn't promise the latter point though. I could see a below-average season but still with 1 or 2 intense US landfalls.

[ncforecaster89]

This time last year I felt confident La Nina was going to transition to warm Neutral by ASO. I was wrong, obviously.

I’ll be even more surprised if ENSO doesn’t cross over to at least the warm side of Neutral by ASO and suspect it’s more likely to be a full-fledged El Nino, albeit not an intense one (e.g., 1997, 2015).

Consequently, I’m anticipating a second season of slightly-below normal ACE and highly doubt the past 3 year string of Cat 4 USA mainland landfalls will continue into 2023.

An inactive season doesn't promise the latter point though. I could see a below-average season but still with 1 or 2 intense US landfalls.

Agree that a below-average season doesn’t preclude an intense hurricane landfall (Cat 4 plus), but it’s statistically unlikely that there would be one Cat 4 U.S mainland landfall…much less two. Then again, being highly unlikely doesn’t equate to impossible.

Simply put, I’ll be astonished if the U.S. mainland sees yet another high-end Cat 4 landfall this upcoming season to continue the past 3 season streak.

[SFLcane]

These year might be one of those were if you like tracking tc's i suggest finding another hobby. Works for me!

Just takes uno!

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1624064812199059456

[aspen]

I wonder how much influence the Tonga eruption’s stratospheric water plume and related atmospheric disruptions will impact this season. Here in Connecticut, we’ve had an exceptionally warm and snowless winter so far due to a persistent displaced high, very similar to what was present from July-August (which caused the New England and NAtl marine heat waves) and what I’ve seen predicted in a couple of articles about the water vapor plume’s atmospheric butterfly effect. If this is indeed continued influence from the Tonga eruption, then I expect it to have some impact on this upcoming hurricane season. Maybe we’ll get another Natl marine heat wave and another storm-free August?

[Category5Kaiju]

I wonder how much influence the Tonga eruption’s stratospheric water plume and related atmospheric disruptions will impact this season. Here in Connecticut, we’ve had an exceptionally warm and snowless winter so far due to a persistent displaced high, very similar to what was present from July-August (which caused the New England and NAtl marine heat waves) and what I’ve seen predicted in a couple of articles about the water vapor plume’s atmospheric butterfly effect. If this is indeed continued influence from the Tonga eruption, then I expect it to have some impact on this upcoming hurricane season. Maybe we’ll get another Natl marine heat wave and another storm-free August?

Here in Eastern Virginia we've yet to have a day with at least some snow that sticks. I also heard NYC is alarmingly below-average in their snowfall totals so far this year.

With that being said, the storm-free August last year I think had more than one factor that caused it, with the principal suspect being that weird wave-breaking pattern we saw. It would almost be paranormal to see something like that happen again this year, considering how storm-free Augusts in general are extremely rare in the Atlantic. At this point in time, I still think the effects of the volcanic eruption from last winter, especially how they impact Atlantic hurricanes, are hazy. And even if that eruption had some effect, there's not really a good way of knowing if the wave-breaking was caused by that eruption alone, or if it also had something to do with the third-year La Nina.

This year will almost be certainly different from last year as we highly likely will not be seeing a La Nina. We'll see if that means anything.

[Iceresistance]

I'm thinking a near average season, fast start with lingering La Nina Conditions before the El Nino takes over.

[zzzh]

NE ridge had nothing to do with the lull last August. Imo, it was the strong NIna, dry air and wavebreaking to blame.

[aspen]

I wonder how much influence the Tonga eruption’s stratospheric water plume and related atmospheric disruptions will impact this season. Here in Connecticut, we’ve had an exceptionally warm and snowless winter so far due to a persistent displaced high, very similar to what was present from July-August (which caused the New England and NAtl marine heat waves) and what I’ve seen predicted in a couple of articles about the water vapor plume’s atmospheric butterfly effect. If this is indeed continued influence from the Tonga eruption, then I expect it to have some impact on this upcoming hurricane season. Maybe we’ll get another Natl marine heat wave and another storm-free August?

Here in Eastern Virginia we've yet to have a day with at least some snow that sticks. I also heard NYC is alarmingly below-average in their snowfall totals so far this year.

With that being said, the storm-free August last year I think had more than one factor that caused it, with the principal suspect being that weird wave-breaking pattern we saw. It would almost be paranormal to see something like that happen again this year, considering how storm-free Augusts in general are extremely rare in the Atlantic. At this point in time, I still think the effects of the volcanic eruption from last winter, especially how they impact Atlantic hurricanes, are hazy. And even if that eruption had some effect, there's not really a good way of knowing if the wave-breaking was caused by that eruption alone, or if it also had something to do with the third-year La Nina.

This year will almost be certainly different from last year as we highly likely will not be seeing a La Nina. We'll see if that means anything.

I was under the assumption that last summer’s displaced high was responsible for the wave-breaking, allowing troughs to track south of it (and where it’d normally be) and kill the incoming waves, along with the marine heatwave increasing stability in the tropics.

[Category5Kaiju]

I wonder how much influence the Tonga eruption’s stratospheric water plume and related atmospheric disruptions will impact this season. Here in Connecticut, we’ve had an exceptionally warm and snowless winter so far due to a persistent displaced high, very similar to what was present from July-August (which caused the New England and NAtl marine heat waves) and what I’ve seen predicted in a couple of articles about the water vapor plume’s atmospheric butterfly effect. If this is indeed continued influence from the Tonga eruption, then I expect it to have some impact on this upcoming hurricane season. Maybe we’ll get another Natl marine heat wave and another storm-free August?

Here in Eastern Virginia we've yet to have a day with at least some snow that sticks. I also heard NYC is alarmingly below-average in their snowfall totals so far this year.

With that being said, the storm-free August last year I think had more than one factor that caused it, with the principal suspect being that weird wave-breaking pattern we saw. It would almost be paranormal to see something like that happen again this year, considering how storm-free Augusts in general are extremely rare in the Atlantic. At this point in time, I still think the effects of the volcanic eruption from last winter, especially how they impact Atlantic hurricanes, are hazy. And even if that eruption had some effect, there's not really a good way of knowing if the wave-breaking was caused by that eruption alone, or if it also had something to do with the third-year La Nina.

This year will almost be certainly different from last year as we highly likely will not be seeing a La Nina. We'll see if that means anything.

I was under the assumption that last summer’s displaced high was responsible for the wave-breaking, allowing troughs to track south of it (and where it’d normally be) and kill the incoming waves, along with the marine heatwave increasing stability in the tropics.

That was indeed a major part of why we saw what we saw with the wave-breaking last year. At least, the general consensus as of now based on many of the meteorologists who use Twitter seems to suggest that. There definitely was also the very warm subtropics that increased tropical stability. I'm sure there were probably other lesser-understood factors that may have added to make that pattern anomalously strong and persistent (especially in a La Nina year), but the way I interpret things, 2022's wave-breaking was simply put, a major anomaly. Maybe not 2013-level strange, but definitely stranger compared to other typical Atlantic hurricane seasons.

[Yellow Evan]

:uarrow: NE ridge had nothing to do with the lull last August. Imo, it was the strong NIna, dry air and wavebreaking to blame.

Those two are connected.