Tropical wave in the Eastern Atlantic (Is Invest 92L)

[NotSparta]

Happy Hour GFS has a hurricane in just 4-5 days. If this pans out, it’ll be unprecedented for an El Niño year AFAIK.

A hurricane this far out from the islands in June is unprecedented period

[MarioProtVI]

18z can be dismissed since GFS is under the impression it’s already a TC (still far from it and a ways to go).

[Blown Away]

Nice persistent split in the ridge @60W each run, but also notice persistent HP sitting along CONUS EC. If the AOI remains weak past @60W it may go W until @80-85W.

[NotSparta]

Now we have a cherry, would imagine this is 92L in short order

390
ABNT20 KNHC 162319
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Jun 16 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located several hundred miles south of the Cabo
Verde Islands is currently producing a broad area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive
for additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to
form by the early to middle portion of next week while the system
moves westward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1669842726396006402

[GCANE]

Latest runs
ICON & Euro have it much weaker at 50W
1006 & 1000mb respectively
GFS at 977mb
Given SAL, I would tend to go with ICON & Euro

ICON & Euro also have a much broader ridge than GFS

[GCANE]

Strong shear and a 355K PV ridge ahead of it.
It'll stay a pouch entrenched in the ITCZ for some time.
Will likely see strong convection pop up and wash out until it gets to about 40W

[cycloneye]

Invest 92L is up