2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll: Poll reaches 100 participants with WAcyclone

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Re: 2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll

#181 Postby cycloneye » Sat Apr 13, 2024 9:27 am

Those who have not posted yet numbers, what are you waiting for? If you are waiting for NOAA's outlook, it will be up on May 23rd and almost all the experts have come out already. CSU, TSR and others will update in June and July, after the poll closes. :D You can participate even if you have preliminary numbers as you come later to make then final before the poll closes on May 31rst at midnight EDT.
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Re: 2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll

#182 Postby cycloneye » Mon Apr 15, 2024 10:18 am

Since April 8th, there has not been new participants with the poll stucked at 66, and I think is the first time on these annual polls, that this has occured that for a whole week, nobody new comes. Who will break the quiet spell? Below is my post from April 13th.

Those who have not posted yet numbers, what are you waiting for? If you are waiting for NOAA's outlook, it will be up on May 23rd and almost all the experts have come out already. CSU, TSR and others will update in June and July, after the poll closes. :D You can participate even if you have preliminary numbers as you come later to make then final before the poll closes on May 31rst at midnight EDT.
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Re: 2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll

#183 Postby cycloneye » Mon Apr 15, 2024 9:00 pm

Thought I would never do this in a forum like S2K where there are many enthusiastic people talking about the tropics all year around. Posting the countdown of the time without a new participant. :eek: The stats members want to work, right USTropics and TheAustinMan?

https://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/g ... nt=cursive
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Re: 2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll

#184 Postby USTropics » Mon Apr 15, 2024 9:25 pm

cycloneye wrote:Thought I would never do this in a forum like S2K where there are many enthusiastic people talking about the tropics all year around. Posting the countdown of the time without a new participant. :eek: The stats members want to work, right USTropics and TheAustinMan?

https://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/g ... nt=cursive


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We're going to need to start going PM to PM and shake down some forecasts.
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Re: 2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll

#185 Postby AnnularCane » Mon Apr 15, 2024 10:06 pm

You don't have to be a met or anything, just post something for fun! Nobody's going to beat you up. :lol:
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Re: 2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll

#186 Postby Teban54 » Mon Apr 15, 2024 10:09 pm

Hey guys... I'm still waiting for the first bet of 40/20/10 or higher! :lol:
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Re: 2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll

#187 Postby chaser1 » Tue Apr 16, 2024 1:32 am

Take my word on this. The Key to effective advertising is -
Exposure, Exposure, Exposure! I highly recommend cross referencing the Season Poll to the 3 most active Tropics threads (Expert forecasts, Seasonal Indicators, & ENSO). Then, wait a week and do it again. Additionally, i'd add "a sticky note" (or even a mirror link) to the actual section containing those Tropics active threads and have it pinned towards the top of that list.
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Re: 2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll

#188 Postby chaser1 » Tue Apr 16, 2024 1:58 am

(Maybe also throw in a handy-dandy S2K Severe Weather Bug-Out Kit - Complete with a single bottled water, a couple slim-jim, 2 candles & some waterproof matches from Dollar Tree, one large garbage bag and some No-Doz. Prize winner to be randomly drawn among Poll Participants on June 1st with Total prize value being $9.25 :lol: )
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Re: 2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll

#189 Postby cycloneye » Tue Apr 16, 2024 1:19 pm

chaser1 wrote:Take my word on this. The Key to effective advertising is -
Exposure, Exposure, Exposure! I highly recommend cross referencing the Season Poll to the 3 most active Tropics threads (Expert forecasts, Seasonal Indicators, & ENSO). Then, wait a week and do it again. Additionally, i'd add "a sticky note" (or even a mirror link) to the actual section containing those Tropics active threads and have it pinned towards the top of that list.


What more promotion than having the thread as an announcment at the top of all the forums. :D I dont know what more to say. The timeticker keeps going ahead. :eek:

https://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/g ... nt=cursive
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Re: 2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll

#190 Postby gib » Wed Apr 17, 2024 6:38 am

With the discussion of participant numbers, I started to wonder if there was a way to make an educated projection of how many more people may join based upon who has previously participated. I started making a spreadsheet with the screennames of every participant going back to 2013 (that seemed like a good place to stop) along with years they submitted a prediction. Frankly, I don't know why I did this as it ended up being quite tedious, but it's done. The usual caveats apply in that I was working with lists that had occasional typos and duplicates, not to mention I may have made errors. That being said, I feel confident this is quite accurate overall.

To reiterate, this data spans from 2013-2024, so it's 12 seasons in total. As of this post, nine members have participated in every poll from 2013-2024. Additionally, there are five members who were in all 11 polls through 2023 so it's probable they'll eventually post numbers this year. There are many members who've participated in the last 2+ polls (or 8 of the last 10, things like that) but have yet to post this year, so they're decent bets to post sooner or later as well. There also are many fresh faces; 13 members are participating for the first time this year! Maybe I'll end up in that group. =D

2013 had 160 participants, but subsequent years were generally around 100 with dips to the low 80s in 2019 and 2023. As for 2024, I suspect it will end up with the most participants since 2013. That being said, getting near 160 (let alone surpassing it) would be a feat. Perhaps the hype surrounding this season will invite a blurt of participation as June 1st nears.

Did I spend too much time on this? Am I nuts? Yes and yes. At one point I almost stopped and binned the whole thing but ultimately decided to see the task through. I'm not going to update or maintain this – sincerely, I don't know what I was thinking – but if anyone is interested I'd be happy to pass the baton and give the spreadsheet to them.
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Re: 2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll

#191 Postby cycloneye » Wed Apr 17, 2024 7:22 am

gib wrote:With the discussion of participant numbers, I started to wonder if there was a way to make an educated projection of how many more people may join based upon who has previously participated. I started making a spreadsheet with the screennames of every participant going back to 2013 (that seemed like a good place to stop) along with years they submitted a prediction. Frankly, I don't know why I did this as it ended up being quite tedious, but it's done. The usual caveats apply in that I was working with lists that had occasional typos and duplicates, not to mention I may have made errors. That being said, I feel confident this is quite accurate overall.

To reiterate, this data spans from 2013-2024, so it's 12 seasons in total. As of this post, nine members have participated in every poll from 2013-2024. Additionally, there are five members who were in all 11 polls through 2023 so it's probable they'll eventually post numbers this year. There are many members who've participated in the last 2+ polls (or 8 of the last 10, things like that) but have yet to post this year, so they're decent bets to post sooner or later as well. There also are many fresh faces; 13 members are participating for the first time this year! Maybe I'll end up in that group. =D

2013 had 160 participants, but subsequent years were generally around 100 with dips to the low 80s in 2019 and 2023. As for 2024, I suspect it will end up with the most participants since 2013. That being said, getting near 160 (let alone surpassing it) would be a feat. Perhaps the hype surrounding this season will invite a blurt of participation as June 1st nears.

Did I spend too much time on this? Am I nuts? Yes and yes. At one point I almost stopped and binned the whole thing but ultimately decided to see the task through. I'm not going to update or maintain this – sincerely, I don't know what I was thinking – but if anyone is interested I'd be happy to pass the baton and give the spreadsheet to them.


Thanks for those stats. All I want now is to stop the counter going up. https://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/g ... nt=cursive After that person post numbers as #67, we will see what occurs down the road and when the poll closes.
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Re: Storm2k 2024 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll

#192 Postby mcheer23 » Wed Apr 17, 2024 9:24 am

mcheer23 wrote:24/8/4 200 ACE

Preliminary

Raising mine to
26/10/5 213 ACE

I'll post my final numbers in late May
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Re: Storm2k 2024 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll

#193 Postby cycloneye » Wed Apr 17, 2024 9:31 am

mcheer23 wrote:
mcheer23 wrote:24/8/4 200 ACE

Preliminary

Raising mine to
26/10/5 213 ACE

I'll post my final numbers in late May


Done.
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Re: 2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll

#194 Postby Hurricane2022 » Wed Apr 17, 2024 10:56 am

The question of the year: who will be participant number #67 in this poll?? Whoever gets it right will receive 1 million dollars + a free trip to see and take a tour inside the NHC :lol: :lol: :tailgate:
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Re: 2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll

#195 Postby AnnularCane » Wed Apr 17, 2024 11:22 am

Hurricane2022 wrote:The question of the year: who will be participant number #67 in this poll?? Whoever gets it right will receive 1 million dollars + a free trip to see and take a tour inside the NHC :lol: :lol: :tailgate:



Now THERE'S a way to get people to post their predictions. They'll probably be tripping over each other to post one. :lol:
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Re: 2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll

#196 Postby USTropics » Wed Apr 17, 2024 1:12 pm

I'm calling it the 'active season effect'. After 2004, there was a bunch more participants in 2005. After 2005, 2006 I believe had the most participants. If we get an active year, more people join Storm2k/interested in tropical weather, and more people participate in the poll the year after.
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Re: 2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll

#197 Postby cycloneye » Wed Apr 17, 2024 1:15 pm

USTropics wrote:I'm calling it the 'active season effect'. After 2004, there was a bunch more participants in 2005. After 2005, 2006 I believe had the most participants. If we get an active year, more people join Storm2k/interested in tropical weather, and more people participate in the poll the year after.


That is a great point. Ummm. 9 days is too much time without a new one.
https://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/g ... nt=cursive
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Re: 2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll

#198 Postby TheAustinMan » Wed Apr 17, 2024 4:56 pm

As we wait for the magical 67th participant for this year's poll, here's a look at the "climatological ACE" for previous editions of this poll (climatological ACE is the ACE expected for a given number of named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes, based on long-term averages). The red line is the Storm2K average, the red shading marks the middle 50% of guesses, and the vertical red whiskers mark +/- 1 standard deviation from the mean. The gray line is the climatological ACE given the season's actual storm counts, and the black line is the actual ACE generated during the season.

Similar to CSU, the Storm2K poll in 2013 and prior was not particularly accurate, but has been better in the years since. Between 2004 and 2013, the actual ACE or actual climatological ACE was within the middle 50% of Storm2K guesses only 3 out of 10 seasons. Since then, this has happened 8 out of 10 seasons, with 2017 being underforecast and 2022 being overforecast.

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Re: 2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll

#199 Postby cycloneye » Wed Apr 17, 2024 5:47 pm

The stats from our friends USTropics and TheAustinMan says it all. The Storm2k Hurricane Season Numbers Polls are the best in social media by far as the stats they crunch tell the story and rival those from the experts. This is why I am very surprised this poll has been thru a participationless spell of 9 days and counting. Hopefully, after the above stats post, members come and post numbers. I will celebrate putting many smilies to #67.
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Re: 2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll: (The best poll in social media)

#200 Postby Category5Kaiju » Thu Apr 18, 2024 10:32 am

Ooof, kind of late to the party but that's alright, I shall post my numbers

NS: 24
H: 11
MH: 6

ACE of 215 (this is final :lol: )
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