https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf
![Image](https://i.imgur.com/lzJT4kn.jpeg)
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cycloneye wrote:Breaking news= The Aussies declares ENSO as Neutral.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/
https://i.imgur.com/wK57SeG.jpeg
Ntxw wrote:Fair points, we're not in disagreement this could be a potent Nina. My point was the base state is warmer so the anomalies if they run warmer, is because of that. The recent El Nino was +0.3- +0.5 warmer than the RONI which meant it got a boost from what it really was, a moderate El Nino because the ocean was already warmer. The same thing might happen to the Nina, it might not cool to extreme levels because the base state could be warmer, but in reality the atmosphere is a potent Nina. Wonder if we see a reverse effect where ONI is running less than the RONI.
Ntxw wrote:Regarding the recent weakening of the Nina (from March) via the models, still holding onto my post prior about the warmer oceans.Ntxw wrote:Fair points, we're not in disagreement this could be a potent Nina. My point was the base state is warmer so the anomalies if they run warmer, is because of that. The recent El Nino was +0.3- +0.5 warmer than the RONI which meant it got a boost from what it really was, a moderate El Nino because the ocean was already warmer. The same thing might happen to the Nina, it might not cool to extreme levels because the base state could be warmer, but in reality the atmosphere is a potent Nina. Wonder if we see a reverse effect where ONI is running less than the RONI.
So while we may not see actual SSTs as cold as in the past for the potent Ninas, relative to the current warmer base state, it may be another case where the atmosphere is much more Nina-state than the actual SSTAs may indicate. The PDO and much warmer WPAC warm pool than in the past already set the groundwork for the atmosphere to respond quickly.
cycloneye wrote:The April plume update of all the models for ENSO changed a little bit and are not in moderate to strong la niña but cool Neutral / Weak La Niña by ASO. The NASA model goes full strong duper.
https://i.imgur.com/5wHIJtX.jpeg
cycloneye wrote:The April plume update of all the models for ENSO changed a little bit and are not in moderate to strong la niña but cool Neutral / Weak La Niña by ASO. The NASA model goes full strong duper.
https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/ ... -sst_table
https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/ ... =enso-nmme
https://i.imgur.com/5wHIJtX.jpeg
https://i.imgur.com/HklGM3v.png
Kingarabian wrote:cycloneye wrote:The April plume update of all the models for ENSO changed a little bit and are not in moderate to strong la niña but cool Neutral / Weak La Niña by ASO. The NASA model goes full strong duper.
https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/ ... -sst_table
https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/ ... =enso-nmme
https://i.imgur.com/5wHIJtX.jpeg
https://i.imgur.com/HklGM3v.png
No doubt the July trades will force rapid cooling and force -ENSO. I still believe for a stronger event that was once advertised, we need to see much more through the next 4 weeks.
StPeteMike wrote:Kingarabian wrote:cycloneye wrote:The April plume update of all the models for ENSO changed a little bit and are not in moderate to strong la niña but cool Neutral / Weak La Niña by ASO. The NASA model goes full strong duper.
https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/ ... -sst_table
https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/ ... =enso-nmme
https://i.imgur.com/5wHIJtX.jpeg
https://i.imgur.com/HklGM3v.png
No doubt the July trades will force rapid cooling and force -ENSO. I still believe for a stronger event that was once advertised, we need to see much more through the next 4 weeks.
I’m with you with waiting to see what the few weeks look like before considering the chances of a stronger La Niña: even with a moderate La Niña, still can be a hyper-active season, just look at how 2023 ended up with El Niño.
cycloneye wrote:The stop sign at niño 3.4. El NIño does not want to go away too fast, but eventually, it will occur. The question is when, in May or June?
https://i.imgur.com/nasMIrf.png
USTropics wrote:cycloneye wrote:cycloneye wrote:Well, the SOI is going down in the negative side and that could signal a slower transition to neutral and later to la niña.
https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/
https://i.imgur.com/keOHwly.jpeg
Down again on april 6. The daily contribution is at -18.32 and that is lower than yesterdays -16.30. Is there something going on as it keeps falling in the negative?
Olga has decreased the background pressure in this region (including Darwin) in combination with a strong cutoff low that traversed across Australia in the past 3-4 days:
https://i.imgur.com/DFZQU8K.png
Meanwhile, Tahiti has been experiencing pretty significant high pressure anomalies over the past few days:
https://i.imgur.com/gplFe3b.png
GFS and ECMWF both have a deepening trough that forms just south of Tahiti lowering pressures next week, which should cause some rebound in the SOI (we'll see how far north it extends):
https://i.imgur.com/Fsw7zhw.png
https://i.imgur.com/9QlNCfu.png
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