2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

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Re: 2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

#701 Postby zzzh » Sun Apr 21, 2024 2:37 pm

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2024 feels the pressure :lol: . Anyway, current MDR SST is at July 23 level.
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Re: 2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

#702 Postby Long John » Sun Apr 21, 2024 3:03 pm

can you send me the link to this graph please
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Re: 2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

#703 Postby zzzh » Sun Apr 21, 2024 3:29 pm

Long John wrote:can you send me the link to this graph please

I plotted it myself, there is no link.
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Re: 2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

#704 Postby cycloneye » Sun Apr 21, 2024 5:33 pm

This was said in the X chat and for our friends and myself in the Caribbean Islands is not good news at all. He was talking about the warm North Atlantic waters.

The window for average activity is open well into the hurricane season but well above average SST is basically locked in at this point
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Re: 2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

#705 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sun Apr 21, 2024 10:10 pm

zzzh wrote:https://i.imgur.com/DkJV74H.png
2024 feels the pressure :lol: . Anyway, current MDR SST is at July 23 level.


Man last year's rate of warming was crazy. It was quite warm, then all of a sudden in June it just skyrockets.
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Re: 2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

#706 Postby DorkyMcDorkface » Mon Apr 22, 2024 10:32 am

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Image
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Re: 2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

#707 Postby cainjamin » Mon Apr 22, 2024 12:12 pm

Wow looks like very low trades for the next several weeks in the MDR. Now that the SAL outbreak as passed the anomolies should start to get even higher which is hard to believe.
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Re: 2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

#708 Postby Jr0d » Tue Apr 23, 2024 8:36 am

The Bermuda high looks like it may be setting up in an ominous spot for the SE US and GoM.

All the indicators are a bit troublesome.
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Re: 2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

#709 Postby DorkyMcDorkface » Tue Apr 23, 2024 9:05 am

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Re: 2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

#710 Postby Hurricane2022 » Tue Apr 23, 2024 10:35 am

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Re: 2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

#711 Postby cainjamin » Tue Apr 23, 2024 12:10 pm

Image

Easy to see the SAL surge just east of the Antilles causing a reduction in SSTAs, and then warming back up rapidly after it passed around Cabo Verde. I bet we'll start to see between 40-60W warm up quickly as well as the next few days pass.
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Re: 2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

#712 Postby CyclonicFury » Tue Apr 23, 2024 1:15 pm

Even with how favorable the Atlantic base state appears, it's important to note that Atlantic hurricane seasons coming off a strong or very strong El Nino often start fairly slow and tend to be more backloaded. 2010, with comparable MDR warmth to this year, did not have its first NATL tropical cyclone until June 25 (which did become a rare late June hurricane); however, July and early August were fairly quiet in 2010 with activity not picking up until the last third of August. 1998 did not have its first tropical cyclone until July 27th (Tropical Storm Alex). 2016 did have three tropical storms between late May and late June (including the controversial Colin), but July was completely dead with no tropical cyclogenesis at all. Seasons coming off a significant El Nino in the -AMO era had even slower starts, though I don't think they are comparable to 2024 with its remarkable MDR warmth.

North Atlantic tropical cyclogenesis during the month of May tends to be non-tropical in origin for the most part. Even with how favorable the base state is, I'd be surprised if we saw a TC in the North Atlantic of tropical origin before the very end of May/start of June.
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Re: 2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

#713 Postby cycloneye » Tue Apr 23, 2024 2:00 pm

Wow, 2024. Impressive but at the same time worrisom.

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1782845560644354137


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Re: 2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

#714 Postby cycloneye » Tue Apr 23, 2024 2:01 pm

CyclonicFury wrote:Even with how favorable the Atlantic base state appears, it's important to note that Atlantic hurricane seasons coming off a strong or very strong El Nino often start fairly slow and tend to be more backloaded. 2010, with comparable MDR warmth to this year, did not have its first NATL tropical cyclone until June 25 (which did become a rare late June hurricane); however, July and early August were fairly quiet in 2010 with activity not picking up until the last third of August. 1998 did not have its first tropical cyclone until July 27th (Tropical Storm Alex). 2016 did have three tropical storms between late May and late June (including the controversial Colin), but July was completely dead with no tropical cyclogenesis at all. Seasons coming off a significant El Nino in the -AMO era had even slower starts, though I don't think they are comparable to 2024 with its remarkable MDR warmth.

North Atlantic tropical cyclogenesis during the month of May tends to be non-tropical in origin for the most part. Even with how favorable the base state is, I'd be surprised if we saw a TC in the North Atlantic of tropical origin before the very end of May/start of June.


In other words, we may see some season canceled posts. :D
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Re: 2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

#715 Postby Teban54 » Tue Apr 23, 2024 3:09 pm

cycloneye wrote:Wow, 2024. Impressive but at the same time worrisom.

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1782845560644354137

To be very honest, seeing these makes me wonder why it was universally agreed upon that 2020 would be hyperactive in the first place. (Not "season canceling" 2020, but in hindsight, indicators for 2020 at this time seem much less favorable than 2024.)
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Re: 2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

#716 Postby cycloneye » Tue Apr 23, 2024 3:34 pm

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Re: 2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

#717 Postby DorkyMcDorkface » Tue Apr 23, 2024 6:39 pm

cycloneye wrote:
CyclonicFury wrote:Even with how favorable the Atlantic base state appears, it's important to note that Atlantic hurricane seasons coming off a strong or very strong El Nino often start fairly slow and tend to be more backloaded. 2010, with comparable MDR warmth to this year, did not have its first NATL tropical cyclone until June 25 (which did become a rare late June hurricane); however, July and early August were fairly quiet in 2010 with activity not picking up until the last third of August. 1998 did not have its first tropical cyclone until July 27th (Tropical Storm Alex). 2016 did have three tropical storms between late May and late June (including the controversial Colin), but July was completely dead with no tropical cyclogenesis at all. Seasons coming off a significant El Nino in the -AMO era had even slower starts, though I don't think they are comparable to 2024 with its remarkable MDR warmth.

North Atlantic tropical cyclogenesis during the month of May tends to be non-tropical in origin for the most part. Even with how favorable the base state is, I'd be surprised if we saw a TC in the North Atlantic of tropical origin before the very end of May/start of June.


In other words, we may see some season canceled posts. :D

They'll come when there's a 1 to 2-week long lull in activity sometime in late July/early August, as if even the most hyperactive seasons haven't had their quieter/weaker periods.

By the way that's a great point regarding seasons following significant Niño events often having somewhat delayed starts. I would imagine some of that has to do with a lag in atmospheric response to the changing ENSO state.
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Re: 2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

#718 Postby cycloneye » Tue Apr 23, 2024 6:41 pm

DorkyMcDorkface wrote:
cycloneye wrote:
CyclonicFury wrote:Even with how favorable the Atlantic base state appears, it's important to note that Atlantic hurricane seasons coming off a strong or very strong El Nino often start fairly slow and tend to be more backloaded. 2010, with comparable MDR warmth to this year, did not have its first NATL tropical cyclone until June 25 (which did become a rare late June hurricane); however, July and early August were fairly quiet in 2010 with activity not picking up until the last third of August. 1998 did not have its first tropical cyclone until July 27th (Tropical Storm Alex). 2016 did have three tropical storms between late May and late June (including the controversial Colin), but July was completely dead with no tropical cyclogenesis at all. Seasons coming off a significant El Nino in the -AMO era had even slower starts, though I don't think they are comparable to 2024 with its remarkable MDR warmth.

North Atlantic tropical cyclogenesis during the month of May tends to be non-tropical in origin for the most part. Even with how favorable the base state is, I'd be surprised if we saw a TC in the North Atlantic of tropical origin before the very end of May/start of June.


In other words, we may see some season canceled posts. :D

They'll come when there's a 1 to 2-week long lull in activity sometime in late July/early August, as if even the most hyperactive seasons haven't had their quieter/weaker periods.

By the way that's a great point regarding seasons following significant Niño events often having somewhat delayed starts. I would imagine some of that has to do with a lag in atmospheric response to the changing ENSO state.


It could be a backloaded season.
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Re: 2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

#719 Postby Cpv17 » Tue Apr 23, 2024 7:41 pm

cycloneye wrote:
DorkyMcDorkface wrote:
cycloneye wrote:
In other words, we may see some season canceled posts. :D

They'll come when there's a 1 to 2-week long lull in activity sometime in late July/early August, as if even the most hyperactive seasons haven't had their quieter/weaker periods.

By the way that's a great point regarding seasons following significant Niño events often having somewhat delayed starts. I would imagine some of that has to do with a lag in atmospheric response to the changing ENSO state.


It could be a backloaded season.


That would most likely keep most of the Gulf states safe if that happens.
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Re: 2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

#720 Postby Hurricaneman » Tue Apr 23, 2024 9:54 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
cycloneye wrote:
DorkyMcDorkface wrote:They'll come when there's a 1 to 2-week long lull in activity sometime in late July/early August, as if even the most hyperactive seasons haven't had their quieter/weaker periods.

By the way that's a great point regarding seasons following significant Niño events often having somewhat delayed starts. I would imagine some of that has to do with a lag in atmospheric response to the changing ENSO state.


It could be a backloaded season.


That would most likely keep most of the Gulf states safe if that happens.

Not necessarily as a good chunk of intense systems have hit the gulf states in late September into October
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