2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

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Re: 2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

#721 Postby Category5Kaiju » Tue Apr 23, 2024 10:06 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
cycloneye wrote:
DorkyMcDorkface wrote:They'll come when there's a 1 to 2-week long lull in activity sometime in late July/early August, as if even the most hyperactive seasons haven't had their quieter/weaker periods.

By the way that's a great point regarding seasons following significant Niño events often having somewhat delayed starts. I would imagine some of that has to do with a lag in atmospheric response to the changing ENSO state.


It could be a backloaded season.


That would most likely keep most of the Gulf states safe if that happens.


You mean like the Texas/Louisiana area or the West Coast of Florida? Because if anything, the latter's most dangerous parts of the season is late September/October (see 1910 Hurricane, Ian, and Wilma).
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Re: 2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

#722 Postby Cpv17 » Wed Apr 24, 2024 12:45 am

Category5Kaiju wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:
cycloneye wrote:
It could be a backloaded season.


That would most likely keep most of the Gulf states safe if that happens.


You mean like the Texas/Louisiana area or the West Coast of Florida? Because if anything, the latter's most dangerous parts of the season is late September/October (see 1910 Hurricane, Ian, and Wilma).


Yeah, like mainly west of the FL panhandle is what I meant.
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Re: 2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

#723 Postby Cpv17 » Wed Apr 24, 2024 12:47 am

Hurricaneman wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:
cycloneye wrote:
It could be a backloaded season.


That would most likely keep most of the Gulf states safe if that happens.

Not necessarily as a good chunk of intense systems have hit the gulf states in late September into October


Not where I live in TX. Late season activity favors the eastern Gulf. That’s prime time for Florida lately.
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Re: 2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

#724 Postby aspen » Wed Apr 24, 2024 9:00 am

DorkyMcDorkface wrote:
cycloneye wrote:
CyclonicFury wrote:Even with how favorable the Atlantic base state appears, it's important to note that Atlantic hurricane seasons coming off a strong or very strong El Nino often start fairly slow and tend to be more backloaded. 2010, with comparable MDR warmth to this year, did not have its first NATL tropical cyclone until June 25 (which did become a rare late June hurricane); however, July and early August were fairly quiet in 2010 with activity not picking up until the last third of August. 1998 did not have its first tropical cyclone until July 27th (Tropical Storm Alex). 2016 did have three tropical storms between late May and late June (including the controversial Colin), but July was completely dead with no tropical cyclogenesis at all. Seasons coming off a significant El Nino in the -AMO era had even slower starts, though I don't think they are comparable to 2024 with its remarkable MDR warmth.

North Atlantic tropical cyclogenesis during the month of May tends to be non-tropical in origin for the most part. Even with how favorable the base state is, I'd be surprised if we saw a TC in the North Atlantic of tropical origin before the very end of May/start of June.


In other words, we may see some season canceled posts. :D

They'll come when there's a 1 to 2-week long lull in activity sometime in late July/early August, as if even the most hyperactive seasons haven't had their quieter/weaker periods.

By the way that's a great point regarding seasons following significant Niño events often having somewhat delayed starts. I would imagine some of that has to do with a lag in atmospheric response to the changing ENSO state.

We’re definitely going to have a break sometime within the mid-July to mid-August time frame. We’ve had one for the last three seasons in a row. I won’t be surprised if this season is yet another instance of enhanced activity in late June/early July followed by a quiet period until around Bell Ringing Day.
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Re: 2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

#725 Postby Cpv17 » Wed Apr 24, 2024 12:27 pm

aspen wrote:
DorkyMcDorkface wrote:
cycloneye wrote:
In other words, we may see some season canceled posts. :D

They'll come when there's a 1 to 2-week long lull in activity sometime in late July/early August, as if even the most hyperactive seasons haven't had their quieter/weaker periods.

By the way that's a great point regarding seasons following significant Niño events often having somewhat delayed starts. I would imagine some of that has to do with a lag in atmospheric response to the changing ENSO state.

We’re definitely going to have a break sometime within the mid-July to mid-August time frame. We’ve had one for the last three seasons in a row. I won’t be surprised if this season is yet another instance of enhanced activity in late June/early July followed by a quiet period until around Bell Ringing Day.


Maybe it’s just me but it seems like July is always dead.
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Re: 2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

#726 Postby DorkyMcDorkface » Wed Apr 24, 2024 12:49 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
aspen wrote:
DorkyMcDorkface wrote:They'll come when there's a 1 to 2-week long lull in activity sometime in late July/early August, as if even the most hyperactive seasons haven't had their quieter/weaker periods.

By the way that's a great point regarding seasons following significant Niño events often having somewhat delayed starts. I would imagine some of that has to do with a lag in atmospheric response to the changing ENSO state.

We’re definitely going to have a break sometime within the mid-July to mid-August time frame. We’ve had one for the last three seasons in a row. I won’t be surprised if this season is yet another instance of enhanced activity in late June/early July followed by a quiet period until around Bell Ringing Day.


Maybe it’s just me but it seems like July is always dead.

July on average is not a very active month. You'll get occasional years with some decent July activity (not just 2005, that was an extreme anomaly) but typically you won't see much. Also I believe that is the month when SAL outbreaks are at their most potent as well, so that's also a factor.

Early August is often an extension of late July, hence why in most seasons we don't see activity pick up until the third week or so of August.
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Re: 2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

#727 Postby Woofde » Thu Apr 25, 2024 12:52 am

The Atlantic SSTs have definitely started responding to the seasonal changes. Now the big question is what pace does it take. We are still outpacing 2023. The important detail right now is where the warmth is concentrated. In 2023 the Atlantic was record breaking warm, but a large part of that was the subtropics. 2024 is record breaking warm carried by the MDR. Combo that with a Cool Neutral or Nina, and it's definitely pretty easy to see why the experts are expecting a doozy of a season.ImageImageImage
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Re: 2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

#728 Postby cycloneye » Thu Apr 25, 2024 7:17 am

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Re: 2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

#729 Postby Category5Kaiju » Thu Apr 25, 2024 9:03 am

DorkyMcDorkface wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:
aspen wrote:We’re definitely going to have a break sometime within the mid-July to mid-August time frame. We’ve had one for the last three seasons in a row. I won’t be surprised if this season is yet another instance of enhanced activity in late June/early July followed by a quiet period until around Bell Ringing Day.


Maybe it’s just me but it seems like July is always dead.

July on average is not a very active month. You'll get occasional years with some decent July activity (not just 2005, that was an extreme anomaly) but typically you won't see much. Also I believe that is the month when SAL outbreaks are at their most potent as well, so that's also a factor.

Early August is often an extension of late July, hence why in most seasons we don't see activity pick up until the third week or so of August.


What's interesting is that at least since 2019, I recall every season having a bunch of murmur that it was going to produce a major hurricane in June/July (yes, that included Barry as some models had it exploding over the Gulf :lol: ).

In 2020, it was Hanna and Gonzalo. In 2021, it was Elsa. In 2022, it was Bonnie. And in 2023, it was Bret. Really shows you how bizarre of an event 2005 was. The only years that really came close to that was 1996 (Cat 3 open ocean hurricane), and even then, seasons like 2010 and 1933 spawned high-end Cat 2s in mid-summer and not major hurricanes.
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Re: 2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

#730 Postby Teban54 » Thu Apr 25, 2024 10:06 am

Category5Kaiju wrote:Really shows you how bizarre of an event 2005 was. The only years that really came close to that was 1996 (Cat 3 open ocean hurricane), and even then, seasons like 2010 and 1933 spawned high-end Cat 2s in mid-summer and not major hurricanes.

Bertha 2008 was also a July major, coincidentally with the same name and category as the 1996 July Cat 3, but much further east.

But yeah, otherwise July 2005 was as anomalous as November 2020 is. There are years with active Novembers (such as 2001 and 2022), but two Cat 4s?
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Re: 2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

#731 Postby NotSparta » Thu Apr 25, 2024 12:07 pm

Teban54 wrote:
Category5Kaiju wrote:Really shows you how bizarre of an event 2005 was. The only years that really came close to that was 1996 (Cat 3 open ocean hurricane), and even then, seasons like 2010 and 1933 spawned high-end Cat 2s in mid-summer and not major hurricanes.

Bertha 2008 was also a July major, coincidentally with the same name and category as the 1996 July Cat 3, but much further east.

But yeah, otherwise July 2005 was as anomalous as November 2020 is. There are years with active Novembers (such as 2001 and 2022), but two Cat 4s?


July 2005 was moreso, November is a time where tropical activity is more favored in the Caribbean whereas July typically sees almost nothing there
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Re: 2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

#732 Postby MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS » Thu Apr 25, 2024 1:40 pm

Woofde wrote:The Atlantic SSTs have definitely started responding to the seasonal changes. Now the big question is what pace does it take. We are still outpacing 2023. The important detail right now is where the warmth is concentrated. In 2023 the Atlantic was record breaking warm, but a large part of that was the subtropics. 2024 is record breaking warm carried by the MDR. Combo that with a Cool Neutral or Nina, and it's definitely pretty easy to see why the experts are expecting a doozy of a season.https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20240425/fb3ab37a0ba3bc76f47d7b9f4c3245f9.jpg https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20240425/0a1991a0cfd738ecbe0f9da23a90f775.jpg https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20240425/219911ed8c754220cd06aefe6b2a391e.jpg


Absolutely wild to see climate change occurring at this pace. Something is seriously broken.
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Re: 2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

#733 Postby cycloneye » Thu Apr 25, 2024 4:12 pm

One word "Insane".

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Re: 2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

#734 Postby Category5Kaiju » Thu Apr 25, 2024 4:21 pm

I know the 2024 season hasn't officially started, but I neverthless can't help but think about it at the back of my head.

If this rate of warmth continues, and given how this year seems to even be outpacing 2023 currently in sst warmth, I'm kind of curious if this may have downstream implications or possible effects even into the 2025 hurricane season...
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Re: 2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

#735 Postby cycloneye » Thu Apr 25, 2024 4:51 pm

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Re: 2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

#736 Postby ColdMiser123 » Thu Apr 25, 2024 5:20 pm



It's almost a copy/paste of the May SSTA correlation to an active season:

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Re: 2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

#737 Postby Hurricane2022 » Thu Apr 25, 2024 10:45 pm

If the Atlantic took just a few minutes longer to start warming quickly, we would be in a tie with 2010 :lol: :double:
 https://twitter.com/catinsight/status/1782113919953150026




:lol: :lol:
 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1782115585716846664


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Re: 2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

#738 Postby cycloneye » Fri Apr 26, 2024 9:43 am

More wows. Right now, is like July 16. :eek:

 https://twitter.com/BMcNoldy/status/1783838221945958541


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Re: 2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

#739 Postby cycloneye » Fri Apr 26, 2024 10:13 am

And then is the heat content below the surface. Another :eek:

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Re: 2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

#740 Postby WeatherBoy2000 » Fri Apr 26, 2024 12:19 pm

 https://twitter.com/WeatherProf/status/1783890091649233347




A record or near record warm mdr for the hurricane season is pretty much a lock now, unless something unforeseen happens.
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