2024 Tropical Waves

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cycloneye
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2024 Tropical Waves

#1 Postby cycloneye » Wed May 22, 2024 9:56 am

The first wave of 2024 has been introduced at 12z surface analysis.

Image

Image

 https://x.com/NHC_TAFB/status/1793298641010278545


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Re: 2024 Tropical Waves

#2 Postby AnnularCane » Wed May 22, 2024 10:10 am

It begins! 8-)
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Re: 2024 Tropical Waves

#3 Postby cycloneye » Wed May 22, 2024 1:09 pm

The first text of 2024.

The first tropical wave of the upcoming hurricane season is
analyzed this morning from 03N to 13N along 38W. According to
satellite Hovmoller data this wave is moving at 10-15 kt. A
scatterometer pass and satellite derived wind data at 700 mb
clearly show the wind shift associated with this wave, which is
supporting scattered moderate convection from 08N to 13N between
31W and 42W.
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Re: 2024 Tropical Waves

#4 Postby cycloneye » Thu May 23, 2024 8:02 am

5/23/24 8 AM.

A tropical wave is located along 44W, southward of 13N, and
moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is seen from 03N to 10.5N between 38W and 48W. Saharan
air is draped north of the wave, from 13N to 17N between 35W and
47W.
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Re: 2024 Tropical Waves

#5 Postby cycloneye » Fri May 24, 2024 10:56 am

Looks good.

 https://x.com/NHC_TAFB/status/1794027791920615822




Image

5/24/24 at 8 AM.

A tropical wave is located near 52W, from 12N southward and
moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
seen from 08N to 10N between 51W and 53W.
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Re: 2024 Tropical Waves

#6 Postby DorkyMcDorkface » Fri May 24, 2024 4:51 pm

Something that may come in handy moving forward:
 https://twitter.com/QuintonLawton/status/1794030081662501079



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Re: 2024 Tropical Waves

#7 Postby cycloneye » Sat May 25, 2024 12:18 pm

5/25/24 at 18:05 UTC:

A tropical wave is along 60W from 14N southward, moving westward
at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 14N
between 57W and 62W. The analyzed position of the tropical wave is
supported by Upper Air Sounding data from Barbados, and Trinidad
and Tobago. Satellite scatterometer data indicates fresh to strong
SE winds east of the wave axis to 57W. The tropical wave will
cross the Windward Islands today, bringing gusty winds, showers,
and tstorms.
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Re: 2024 Tropical Waves

#8 Postby cycloneye » Sun May 26, 2024 6:01 pm

5/26/24 at 18:00 UTC.

A tropical wave has been introduced along 32W, south of 11N, based
on satellite imagery and wave diagnostic guidance. The wave is
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
observed from 03N to 08N and between 29W and 36W.

A tropical wave is along 65W, south of 20N, moving westward at
10-15 knots. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
noted from 10N to 19N and between 57W and 65W. The tropical wave
will move through the eastern Caribbean Sea today, the central
basin on Mon and the W Caribbean Tue. Showers are likely for
Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands tonight into Wed.
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Re: 2024 Tropical Waves: Third wave introduced at 12z near African Coast

#9 Postby cycloneye » Mon May 27, 2024 10:34 am

Third wave analized at 12z near African Coast. Text soon.

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Re: 2024 Tropical Waves: Third wave introduced at 12z near African Coast

#10 Postby cycloneye » Mon May 27, 2024 12:07 pm

5/27/24 at 12z:

A tropical wave has been introduced in the eastern Atlantic along
16W, south of 15N, based on satellite imagery and wave
diagnostics guidance. The wave is moving westward at 15-20 kt.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from
01N to 11N and east of 20W.

A tropical wave in the central Atlantic has been relocated along
39W, south of 11N, based on recent scatterometer satellite data.
The wave is moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 08N and between
35W and 43W. The satellite-derived wind data also captured fresh
to strong winds primarily associated with the strongest
convection.

A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean Sea along 70W, south
of 21N, extending across the Dominican Republic to NW Venezuela.
The wave passage was evident in the 1200 UTC Santo Domingo, DR,
radiosonde at 700 mb. The wave is moving westward at 10-15 knots.
A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured moderate to fresh
winds associated with this wave. The wave is moving into the dry
side of the upper level trough that extends from the western
Atlantic to the SW Caribbean Sea. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are seen east of the trough axis to 66W and north of
15N. Moisture associated with this wave will spread on Tue into
Jamaica and eastern Cuba. The storm activity may produce gusty
winds and locally heavy rain over the next few days from eastern
Cuba to the Virgin Islands, especially in mountainous areas,
leading to flash flooding. Please refer to your local weather
office for more specific information.
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Re: 2024 Tropical Waves

#11 Postby cycloneye » Tue May 28, 2024 7:29 am

5/28/24 at 8 AM EDT.

A tropical wave is E of the Cape Verde Islands from 01N to 14N
with axis near 21W, moving westward at 15 to 20 knots. Scattered
moderate convection is from 01N to 09N between 20W and 30W.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic from 01N to 08N with
axis near 49W, moving westward at about 15 knots. Scattered
moderate convection is from 00N to 08N between 48W and 58W.

A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean S of 21N with axis
near 74W, moving westward at 10 to 15 knots. Scattered showers are
across Hispaniola and adjacent waters, including the Windward
Passage.


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Re: 2024 Tropical Waves

#12 Postby cycloneye » Tue May 28, 2024 7:54 am

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Re: 2024 Tropical Waves: Wave #4 has been introduced at 5/29/24 at12z

#13 Postby cycloneye » Wed May 29, 2024 10:13 am

Tropical Wave #4 of 2024 has been introduced at 12z.

A tropical wave has been introduced in the eastern Atlantic along
17W, south of 15N based on satellite imagery and wave diagnostic
guidance. The wave is moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is observed from 05N to 12N and east of 23W.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic along 34W, south of
11N, moving westward at 15-20 knots. A few showers are noted near
the wave axis.

Another tropical wave is in the central Atlantic along 58W, south
of 13N, moving westward at 15-20 knots. Scattered moderate
convection is present from 07N to 12N and between 54W and 62W.

A tropical wave in the western Caribbean along 82W, south of 21N,
moving westward at 10-15 knots. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is occurring in the SW Caribbean, south of 13W.


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Re: 2024 Tropical Waves: Wave #4 has been introduced on 5/29/24 at 12z

#14 Postby cycloneye » Wed May 29, 2024 12:39 pm

TheAustinMan / USTropics, do you have stats about the earliest first tropical waves dates and which year has had the most in May?
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Re: 2024 Tropical Waves

#15 Postby cycloneye » Thu May 30, 2024 9:04 am

5/30/24 at 8 AM.

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 20W/21W
from 03N to 14N. It is moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm east and
180 nm west of the wave from 07N to 08N.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 37W/38W from
02N to 10N, moving westward 15-20 kt. Broken to overcast
multilayer clouds along with clusters of moderate convection are
from 03N to 08N between 32W and the wave, and from 03N to 10N
between the wave and 40W.

A tropical wave has recently entered the far southeastern
Caribbean Sea, with its axis along 62W and south of 14N. It is
moving westward at 15 kt. Broken to overcast multilayer clouds
with embedded scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are within
120 nm west of the wave from 10N to 12N.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 86W/87W south of 21N
to inland Honduras and northwest Nicaragua. It is moving westward
at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are
west of the wave over western Nicaragua and southeastern
Guatemala.
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Re: 2024 Tropical Waves

#16 Postby cycloneye » Fri May 31, 2024 9:06 am

Waves at 5/31/24 at 8 AM EDT:

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 24W/25W from 11N
southward, and moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Widely scattered
moderate convection is seen from 03N to 08N between 09W and 37W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 45W from 11N southward,
and moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Widely scattered moderate
convection is noted from 05N to 11N between 39W and 47W.

A Caribbean tropical wave is near 69W/70W from near the SE
Dominican Republic southward into northwestern Venezuela, and
moving westward at around 15 kt. Widely scattered showers are
present S of 17N between 64W and 73W.


Wave #1 at EPAC:

The axis of a tropical wave is near 92W north of 08N. It is
moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
seen within 120 nm west of the wave axis from 08N to 11N. Some
slow development of this system is possible through the weekend
and early next week while it moves slowly westward well to the
south of the coast of Mexico. It has a low probability of
tropical cyclone development.


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Re: 2024 Tropical Waves

#17 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jun 01, 2024 6:06 pm

4 Waves at 6/1/24 at 7 PM EDT.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 40W from 12N southward,
moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 04N to 11N between 36W and 41W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 56W from 13N southward,
moving west at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N
to 11N between 52W and 55W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 80W from 18N southward,
moving west at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is from 11N to 18N between 77W and 81W.


Wave #1 at EPAC:

The axis of a tropical wave is near 95W, to the north of 04N,
moving westward near 10 kt. Numerous moderate to strong
convection is within 60 nm either side of the wave from 07N to
15N. Active convection is expected to continue with this system
through the into early next week while it moves slowly westward,
and well to the south of the coast of Mexico. However, development
of this system appears unlikely.


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Re: 2024 Tropical Waves

#18 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jun 02, 2024 5:32 am

Waves at 6/2/24 at 06z analysis. The 5th wave of 2024 has been introduced emerging from Africa.

An Atlantic tropical wave is emerging off the coast of Africa near
14W from 11N southward, moving west at around 15 kt. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is noted from 02N to 10N between 10W
and 19W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 42W/43W from 13N
southward, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Widely scattered moderate
convection is noted from 04N to 14N between 39W and 46W.

Another Atlantic tropical wave is over Barbados near 59W/60W from
16N southward, moving west around 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is from 11N to 16N between 55W and 61W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 81W from near the
Cayman Islands southward to western Panama, moving west around 10
kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 10N
to 16N between 77W and 83W. Widely scattered showers are near the
Cayman Islands and Island of Youth.


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Re: 2024 Tropical Waves

#19 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jun 02, 2024 12:48 pm

Wave #6 introduced at 12z analysis.

Based on new data this morning, an Atlantic tropical wave is now
analyzed along 29W from 09N southward. Forward motion is an
uncertain 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are in the vicinity of this
tropical wave.
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Re: 2024 Tropical Waves

#20 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 03, 2024 7:22 am

Waves on 6/3/24 at 06z analysis.

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 20W from 11N
southward, and moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Nearby convection is
described below.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 33W from 09N southward,
and moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Nearby convection is described
below.

Another Atlantic tropical wave is near 50W from 11N southward,
and moving west at 15 kt. Nearby convection is described below.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 65W from 19N
southward, and moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Convection over water
remains minimal, however deep convection is spreading from
eastern to central Venezuela.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 82W from 21N southward,
and is quasi-stationary due to interaction with an upper-level
trough. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are flaring up near
the Nicaraguan coast, and from 15N to 17N between 77W and 80W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Senegal,
then curves southwestward to 07N20W. An ITCZ continues from 07N20W
to 06N32W, then from 06N35W to 07N48W. Widely scattered moderate
convection is noted from 03N to 09N between 08W and 40W. Widely
scattered moderate isolated strong convection is present from 04N
to 12N between 40W and 58W.


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