Surface trough east of the Bahamas (Is INVEST 92L)

[LarryWx]

Outside of the GFS/GEFS, which to me don’t look impressive, the 12Z model consensus has only an open wave. I continue to predict this won’t become a TD with 90% confidence. But I’ll still keep watching the models and satellite images as in my mind it’s ~10% rather than 0%

[LarryWx]

The 18Z GFS is the weakest since way back to the 6Z June 15th run as it has virtually no closed LLC.

[AJC3]

There is a feature near 27N 72W that was well west of the main feature near 27N 63W.

It is moving west at pretty good pace, my estimate is 20mph+.

No convection with the further west feature, just an open wave with no convection. My amateur guess if it stays like this it will make it to north Central Florida and will bring an increase chance of thunderstorm Wednesday/Thursday.

If it manages to get some sustained convection then it will likely go further north...again just my amateur opinion.

The main feature has some convection with little Eddy's and looks almost stationary to me...but absolutely no signs of trying to organize. It is telling the models and ensembles(except the GFS) have backed off significant development.

This is the small vortex I pointed out Sunday morning (see page 2) that turned into a nothing-burger by that evening as the convective band on its south side dissipated. The weak vortex did manage to hold together and now resembles an infamous "screaming eagle" feature, albeit much weaker and devoid of convection.

Also, not surprisingly...the 7 day prob for the system to develop has been lowered slightly...

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

1. Southwestern Atlantic Ocean:
An area of cloudiness and thunderstorms located several hundred
miles east of the Bahamas is associated with a surface trough and
an upper-level area of low pressure. Environmental conditions
could be conducive for some gradual development of this system
during the next few days while it moves westward or west-
northwestward. The system is forecast to approach the coast of
the southeastern United States on Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[AJC3]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

1. Southwestern Atlantic Ocean:
An area of cloudiness and showers located several hundred miles east
of the Bahamas is associated with a surface trough and an
upper-level area of low pressure. Environmental conditions could be
conducive for some gradual development of this system during the
next few days while it moves westward or west-northwestward. The
system is forecast to approach the coast of the southeastern United
States on Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[BobHarlem]

The models on this remain weak but have moved back to north Florida. Small somewhat concentratrd area of rain especially compared to ptc1

[cycloneye]

8 AM.

Southwestern Atlantic Ocean:
An area of cloudiness and showers located several hundred miles east
of the Bahamas is associated with a surface trough and an
upper-level area of low pressure. Environmental conditions could be
conducive for some gradual development of this system during the
next few days while it moves westward or west-northwestward. The
system is forecast to approach the coast of the southeastern United
States on Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[jlauderdal]

The models on this remain weak but have moved back to north Florida. Small somewhat concentratrd area of rain especially compared to ptc1

GFS win

[Ian2401]

Lots of deep convection firing North of Puerto Rico. Looks like it is just to the SW of a broad area of vorticity, although hard to tell on visible where exactly that vorticity is centered at

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/joshbrownwx/status/1803180072754618785

[cycloneye]

8 PM:

Southwestern Atlantic Ocean:
An area of showers and thunderstorms located several hundred miles
east of the Bahamas is associated with a surface trough and an
upper-level area of low pressure. Environmental conditions are
marginally conducive for some gradual development of this system
during the next few days while it moves westward or
west-northwestward. The system is forecast to approach the coast of
the southeastern United States on Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[otowntiger]

 https://x.com/joshbrownwx/status/1803180072754618785

What is a lot more noteworthy than the breeze are the nice temps for this time of year! Very pleasant and amazing for late June around these parts!

[Blown Away]

Swirl @25/70 moving towards the coast. Conditions in the basin not quite there, but I think we are a few weeks away from lift off in the basin. I’m ready!!!

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1803400448818160021

[cycloneye]

2 PM:

Southwestern Atlantic Ocean:
An area of showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles
east of the Bahamas is associated with a surface trough of low
pressure. Environmental conditions are marginally conducive for some
gradual development of this system during the next few days while it
moves westward or west-northwestward. The system is forecast to
approach the coast of the southeastern United States by Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[Blown Away]

Be nice if they would invest tag this area…

[Sciencerocks]

 https://twitter.com/DylanFedericoWX/status/1803479336952955371

[AJC3]

Be nice if they would invest tag this area…

Looks like your wish was granted...

This is now INVEST 92L