Date of first hurricane of 2024 season

[cycloneye]

Ok folks, let's have this poll with this topic about when will be the first hurricane of the season. The poll will close for voting on June 10th at 5:48 PM EDT, and there are 10 options.

[Chris90]

I voted June 21-30th, but I'll narrow it down further and say June 27th. We'll see what happens.

[Sciencerocks]

July 5th

[Old-TimeCane]

July 1-10

[IcyTundra]

July 11-20. Cat 2 into Central America.

[LarryWx]

July 21-31

[FireRat]

7/21 - 7/31

[skyline385]

Gonna go with June 21-30 coinciding with the next MJO passage

[CFLHurricane]

The waters are hot but I think seasonality still rules the roost and opted for a late August hurricane.

[wxman57]

I would guess August. Typical date for the first hurricane is around the 6th of August. I'm wondering if all agencies are way too high in their projections for activity this season. That would be fine with me.

[WeatherBoy2000]

The waters are hot but I think seasonality still rules the roost and opted for a late August hurricane.

The only active season that didn't see a hurricane prior to late August since 2010 was 2011. Nothing is impossible, but the basin would really have to underperform under this set up to not see it happen sooner imo. I think it will happen by early August at the latest.

[tolakram]

I picked end of July, assuming we might be more active than normal and this will correlate to a slightly earlier start.

[CM2]

The waters are hot but I think seasonality still rules the roost and opted for a late August hurricane.

The only active season that didn't see a hurricane prior to late August since 2010 was 2011. Nothing is impossible, but the basin would really have to underperform under this set up to not see it happen sooner imo. I think it will happen by early August at the latest.

Based on the models, we might have a chance of one in the next few weeks or so, and a decent chance of a risk of multiple as well. Nothing too strong but early season storms.

[Michele B]

I voted middle of July only because it is almost the middle of June already and nothing seems to be ramping up, so I'll give it a few more weeks.

Also, I remember checking with Old Farmer's ALmanac before the season began, and THEY gave warnings for hurricane threat for 3rd or 4th week in June and then middle of July (also said end of August, I think). And again, since I don't think anything will be around during the 3rd or 4th week of June, I'm sticking with their prediction for July for now!

Also, I picked a fairly early date because if we're really supposed to have 20, 25, 30 storms, they'll have to start coming soon!

If we have a season where we have 4 or 5 storms at the same time out in the Atlantic, THAT"ll make for a record-breaking season!

[ElectricStorm]

Doubt we see one in June although I could see a TS. I'll go with July 11-20 for first hurricane

[tolakram]

I picked end of July, assuming we might be more active than normal and this will correlate to a slightly earlier start.

NOPE!

[hurricaneCW]

Date of not only first hurricane but first major ended up being end of June.

Usually things are over hyped but every now and then the hype wins out.

[Teban54]

Date of not only first hurricane but first major ended up being end of June.

Usually things are over hyped but every now and then the hype wins out.

There wasn't even a poll for the date of the first major...

[Beef Stew]

I went with early July. Beryl had other plans… 2/1/1 at the end of June… now that’s something I didn’t see coming.