Tropical Wave in SW Caribbean (0/0)

[Stratton23]

18z GFS kills the wave over nicaragua , but before anyone says its over for this one, thats just one of several scenarios lol, tough to know what will happen really

[TomballEd]

I'm not betting the house on it, but the Caribbean wave looks like it is one of those NHC Outlook areas that trends up, the slowly trends down to 10/10 or 0/0 and disappears from the TWOAT. 20% or less of the ensembles seeing it getting out of South America or Central America alive, pretty poor odds. 0Z runs continue the trend, it'll be back to 10/20 or 0/20 at 1 am CDT.

[Stratton23]

My rule of thumb, until this moves in land, it doesnt matter what the models or ensembles show, you gotta watch it regardless, models can flip in the blink of an eye

[TomballEd]

The not betting the house was my way of coming close to the old S2K requirement of a disclaimer, stating anything resembling a forecast would require a non blue tag poster stating they weren't a met, it wasn't an official forecast, follow advisories from NHC and NWS and all that jazz.

Nobody on a tropics forum is going to say no chance of anything 7 to 9 days out. I assumed that is why the standard boilerplate disclaimer finally went away.

That should be a requirement on X. I'm sure someone has posted the outlier 18Z GFS ensemble hit on Houston in an attempt to get lots of clicks. Reed Timmer does it, although I guess its ok if you have a PhD.

[REDHurricane]

Lol I've counted at least three good-looking systems so far (four if we're including this one) this season that I'm convinced would have developed into strong TS/hurricanes if they didn't run into Central America; that's essentially the only reason we're not already at 7-8+ NS and already on pace to set every Atlantic record in my extremely humble opinion. I know this happens to some extent every year, but this season in particular I feel like I've seen it happening more than usual

[Michele B]

Lol I've counted at least three good-looking systems so far (four if we're including this one) this season that I'm convinced would have developed into strong TS/hurricanes if they didn't run into Central America; that's essentially the only reason we're not already at 7-8+ NS and already on pace to set every Atlantic record in my extremely humble opinion. I know this happens to some extent every year, but this season in particular I feel like I've seen it happening more than usual

I think it's because we're all on edge....having been told it's going to be a "worse than average (by a LOT)" season, we're all expecting catastrophe associated with every wave.

[TomballEd]

As long as NHC has a lemon for it, it has a chance. But I think WxMan57 used to say (well, using Dr. McCoy), 'Its dead Jim'.

[Stratton23]

It aint dead until its in land

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Aug 6 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Debby, located just offshore of the Georgia and South
Carolina coastline.

1. Western Caribbean Sea and Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
over the central Caribbean Sea remain limited. Any development of
this system should be slow to occur while it moves over the western
Caribbean Sea and then interacts with Central America through the
end of the week. The northern portion of this tropical wave could
reach the southwestern Gulf of Mexico over the weekend, where
environmental conditions appear marginally favorable for slow
development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.


Forecaster Hagen/Beven

[abajan]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Wed Aug 7 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Debby, located just offshore of the Georgia and South
Carolina coastline.

1. Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
over the southwestern Caribbean Sea remain disorganized. The
northern portion of this tropical wave could reach the southwestern
Gulf of Mexico over the weekend, but any development should be slow
to occur.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.


Forecaster Bucci

[Hurricane2022]

bye.

[aspen]

Seems like it’s too far south to develop. Whenever the GFS developed it, it spun off the northernmost lobe of the wave axis, which always seemed unrealistic and more like model bias. It also seemed like the wave was interacting with the GFS’s phantom South America vorticity, which may have artificially boosted its development odds on the model.

[cheezyWXguy]

Seems like it’s too far south to develop. Whenever the GFS developed it, it spun off the northernmost lobe of the wave axis, which always seemed unrealistic and more like model bias. It also seemed like the wave was interacting with the GFS’s phantom South America vorticity, which may have artificially boosted its development odds on the model.

That’s a good point. I noticed on at least some runs it did that, but didn’t really take it into account. I remember Ida formed in a similar way to what it depicted, so I thought it could possibly be legitimate, but I guess it’s probably more likely that the blind squirrel found a nut back then.

[cycloneye]

Is now official Hurricane2022.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
200 PM EDT Wed Aug 7 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Debby, located just offshore of the South Carolina coastline.

Western Caribbean Sea:
A tropical wave located over the southwestern Caribbean Sea is
producing some disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The wave is
forecast to move westward and inland over Central America during the
next day or two, and development of this system is not expected.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

[lilbump3000]