2025 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

[cycloneye]

Andy has as analog 2001 based on the pressures and subtropical ssta's warmer than MDR.

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1919381222024765578

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/RyanMaue/status/1919737032059891779

[cycloneye]

There has been warming at MDR in the past few days.

Coral Reef data



OISST data



CDAS data

[AnnularCane]

Is it just me or does there seem to be some disagreement on the MDR? Or is it just finally warming up as some predicted?

[WeatherBoy2000]

Is it just me or does there seem to be some disagreement on the MDR? Or is it just finally warming up as some predicted?

According to the Coral reef data, the mdr is currently warming up at a rapid pace:

[chaser1]

Is it just me or does there seem to be some disagreement on the MDR? Or is it just finally warming up as some predicted?

I'm with you regarding some of these early MDR SST year comparisons. Atm, I see a slightly cool E. Atlantic and an adequately warm tropical Atlantic/Caribbean. Outside of crazy excessive condition anomalies, I think there are other more important factors that ultimately determine the character of each hurricane season. Sure, a cooler Eastern Atlantic in July/August/September may well retard Cape Verde long trackers and cumulative seasonal ACE. That may or may not have implications resulting in further west developing or tracking storm tracks. As for season analogs?? I think some forcasters draw way too much weight from this type of SST analysis when you consider that
1) we're still in early May, and
2) its overly simplistic to consider seasonal outcome and frequency with the focus narrowly considering a year with excessive high SST's verses a year depicting just "warm anomalies".
3) ENSO conditions are essentially neutral and W Atlantic SST's appear forecast to be adequately warm.

Bottom line, I think it's a stretch to draw too much from this alone. I have to believe that one or two more important factors will play a bigger role toward this season's activity being suppressed or excessive.... OR simply average.

[Category5Kaiju]

Is it just me or does there seem to be some disagreement on the MDR? Or is it just finally warming up as some predicted?

I'm with you regarding some of these early MDR SST year comparisons. Atm, I see a slightly cool E. Atlantic and an adequately warm tropical Atlantic/Caribbean. Outside of crazy excessive condition anomalies, I think there are other more important factors that ultimately determine the character of each hurricane season. Sure, a cooler Eastern Atlantic in July/August/September may well retard Cape Verde long trackers and cumulative seasonal ACE. That may or may not have implications resulting in further west developing or tracking storm tracks. As for season analogs?? I think some forcasters draw way too much weight from this type of SST analysis when you consider that
1) we're still in early May, and
2) its overly simplistic to consider seasonal outcome and frequency with the focus narrowly considering a year with excessive high SST's verses a year depicting just "warm anomalies".
3) ENSO conditions are essentially neutral and W Atlantic SST's appear forecast to be adequately warm.

Bottom line, I think it's a stretch to draw too much from this alone. I have to believe that one or two more important factors will play a bigger role toward this season's activity being suppressed or excessive.... OR simply average.

So, remember last year? Yes, when August and early September were eerily quiet and people began doubting the season? The tropical Atlantic was scorching, but the upper level patterns/conditions simply weren't conducive to cyclone formation. Or the times when Florence, Michael, and Lorenzo attained peak intensity over waters that were in the low 80s F? And Pablo 2019 and Epsilon 2020 becoming hurricanes over waters below 80 F?

You can have boiling waters, but if there's a lot of shear and dry air, you're not going to get anything. You can have rather chilly waters, but if the upper level conditions are favorable, you'll get something. And remember, on a sst anomaly map, when you see white or pale blue in the tropics during hurricane season, that likely would still imply waters that are in the low 80s, meaning enough to support TCs, even powerful ones. Yes, warm ssts are absolutely a good thing for TCs. But they're not the entire picture.

[Steve]

Is it just me or does there seem to be some disagreement on the MDR? Or is it just finally warming up as some predicted?

I'm with you regarding some of these early MDR SST year comparisons. Atm, I see a slightly cool E. Atlantic and an adequately warm tropical Atlantic/Caribbean. Outside of crazy excessive condition anomalies, I think there are other more important factors that ultimately determine the character of each hurricane season. Sure, a cooler Eastern Atlantic in July/August/September may well retard Cape Verde long trackers and cumulative seasonal ACE. That may or may not have implications resulting in further west developing or tracking storm tracks. As for season analogs?? I think some forcasters draw way too much weight from this type of SST analysis when you consider that
1) we're still in early May, and
2) its overly simplistic to consider seasonal outcome and frequency with the focus narrowly considering a year with excessive high SST's verses a year depicting just "warm anomalies".
3) ENSO conditions are essentially neutral and W Atlantic SST's appear forecast to be adequately warm.

Bottom line, I think it's a stretch to draw too much from this alone. I have to believe that one or two more important factors will play a bigger role toward this season's activity being suppressed or excessive.... OR simply average.

So, remember last year? Yes, when August and early September were eerily quiet and people began doubting the season? The tropical Atlantic was scorching, but the upper level patterns/conditions simply weren't conducive to cyclone formation. Or the times when Florence, Michael, and Lorenzo attained peak intensity over waters that were in the low 80s F? And Pablo 2019 and Epsilon 2020 becoming hurricanes over waters below 80 F?

You can have boiling waters, but if there's a lot of shear and dry air, you're not going to get anything. You can have rather chilly waters, but if the upper level conditions are favorable, you'll get something. And remember, on a sst anomaly map, when you see white or pale blue in the tropics during hurricane season, that likely would still imply waters that are in the low 80s, meaning enough to support TCs, even powerful ones. Yes, warm ssts are absolutely a good thing for TCs. But they're not the entire picture.

You're right. But 2024 was a season that the MJO mattered and was a strong signal. Unfavorable MJO during the peak was the reason. Otherwise, as you said, you can have a lot of things in place but end up with nothing.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/DylanFedericoWX/status/1920208743158907069

[Teban54]

Honestly, we've been on a streak of "above-average" seasons (in activity, impact or both) for so long, that it's hard to imagine actually having an average or below-average season.

Among 9 consecutive seasons since 2016, only one would be classified as near-average by ACE: 2022. Even that season didn't feel near-normal after the fact, due to the destruction from Fiona and Ian. All other 8 seasons met the above-average ACE threshold of 126.1, with many being just as bad in human impacts.

Crucially, this "near-streak" happened despite all kinds of negative conditions that (some) people expect to lead to inactive seasons:

• El Nino years: 2016, 2018, 2023
• Cold MDR SSTs: 2018, 2021, arguably even 2020?
• Warm subtropics that often outshined deep tropics (which people always say leads to stability issues nowadays): 2016, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2022 (& arguably 2021 and 2024)
• Cold Canary Current: 2018, 2022 (& arguably 2020 and 2021)
• Cold waters right off the coast of Africa (which some Twitter mets suspected to be the reason for Sep 2024's inactivity): 2018, 2019, 2021, 2022, 2024

Below is a GIF loop of Aug-Oct SSTAs in these years. In my amateur eyes, very few of these SSTA profiles would scream above-average by itself, in view of the negative factors that are often thrown around. The closest self-evident ones are probably 2017, 2023 and 2024, but each of their SSTA profiles has arguments against high activity, including the El Nino for 2023.

(Note that these plots use 1991-2020 climo, which is higher than the 1981-2020 that's still used on a few sites, including Tropical Tidbits.



(As part of what I was suggesting, I'd really appreciate some more clarity on how "warm subtropics" is actually defined. There's a clear-cut definition for the tropics/MDR, but it seems that people have used the "warm subtropics" term to describe either 20N-30N, 30N-40N or even further north, and either the western or eastern halve of the basin. I would have expected different effects from each of these regions, and IIRC people had discussed effects of "western subtropics" vs. "eastern subtropics" before. As it is, though, everything seems to be lumped together, inviting critics of warm subtropics pretty much every year except 2023.)

[cycloneye]

More closer to land developments than long trackers CV ones according to this.

 https://x.com/BenNollWeather/status/1919893114535477342