Area of interest in Bay of Campeche (Is Invest 91L)

[Stratton23]

NHC officially with a lemon spot in the BOC as energy near the yucatan is expected to move into BOC, models arent showing much, but then again the BOC is notorious for helping systems spin up quickly.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. Bay of Campeche:
An area of showers and thunderstorms currently over the northwestern
Caribbean sea and adjacent land areas is expected to move
west-northwestward into the Bay of Campeche Saturday or Saturday
night. A low pressure area could form after that time if the system
remains over water.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.



Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

Stratton23, To let you know that made your post at the models thread as the new thread for the NHC AOI.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

EPS signal looks intriguing:

[Stratton23]

DorkyMcDorkFace 00z Euro has a couple more stronger members for only 72-84 hours out

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Bay of Campeche:
An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the
northwestern Caribbean sea and the adjacent land areas is expected
to move west-northwestward into the Bay of Campeche Saturday or
Saturday night, where an area of low pressure could form.
Subsequent development is possible on Sunday or Monday if the system
remains offshore of the coast of Mexico. Regardless of development,
locally heavy rains are possible over portions of Belize, Guatemala,
and southeastern Mexico during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[jaguars_22]

06z ECMWF shows a few more tracks that come in to Texas. This could be an interesting weekend...

[cycloneye]

The folks of Air Force will be busy on Saturday and Sunday.

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EDT FRI 27 JUNE 2025
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 28/1100Z TO 29/1100Z JUNE 2025
TCPOD NUMBER.....25-027

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (BAY OF CAMPECHE)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 71 FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 72
A. 28/1800Z A. 29/0530Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST B. AFXXX 02AAA SURVEY
C. 28/1530Z C. 29/0300Z
D. 19.5N 94.0W D. 20.0N 95.5W
E. 28/1730Z TO 28/2100Z E. 29/0500Z TO 29/0830Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
G. INVEST G. SYSTEM SURVEY
H. NO WRA ACTIVATION H. NO WRA ACTIVATION

FLIGHT THREE - TEAL 73
A. 29/1130Z, 1730Z
B. AFXXX 0302A CYCLONE
C. 29/0900Z
D. 21.0N 96.0W
E. 29/1100Z TO 29/1730Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
G. FIX
H. NO WRA ACTIVATION

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

[cycloneye]

Looks like 91L is comming.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Yucatan Peninsula and Bay of Campeche:
A broad area of low pressure has formed over the Yucatan Peninsula
in association with a large area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the Yucatan
Peninsula. Some additional development is possible over the next few
days when the system moves into the Bay of Campeche this weekend. By
early next week this system should move inland over Mexico, ending
its chances of additional development. Regardless of development,
locally heavy rains are possible over portions of Belize, Guatemala,
and southeastern Mexico during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

[jaguars_22]

Cycloneye you think it will be 91l by the end of the day? Any chance you see this forming further north? Is there a ridge over Texas blocking it?

[Stratton23]

I bet it will be 91L. by the end of the day considering they have reconnaissance missions for tomorrow and sunday, furthest north i can see this going is probably northern mexico, upper level ridge over the central gulf will direct the system into mexico

[cycloneye]

Cycloneye you think it will be 91l by the end of the day? Any chance you see this forming further north? Is there a ridge over Texas blocking it?

Well, only mother nature will answer those questions at the end. NHC decides what will they do about when is going to be a invest.

[cycloneye]

Invest 91L is up