Wave Over the North Central Gulf

[TallyTracker]

This kinda reminds me of TS Emily in 2017. It was only mentioned as a lemon in the TWO 6 hours before development. TS Warnings were issued with less than 5 hours notice before landfalling as a 60 mph TS.

With no low-level structure, the odds of development are low. However, these are the types of systems that cause models fits and can develop with little notice. Definitely worth watching as there is likely a low chance of development considering the time of year and environment.

[toad strangler]

3.49” in St. Lucie West today from the train that ran up the eastern peninsula

[Jr0d]

Just looked at the local satellite and was surprised by this feature. So far I don't think there are any signs of the pressure falling but it certainly looks like it has the potential to do so...as mentioned above TS Emily caught the computer models off guard.

I would think a minimal TS developing quickly would be funny as many are already calling 97L 'Erin' and this would take the name. A minimal TS isn't much of a problem either besides the flood potential which will be there with or without a defined center.

[AnnularCane]

Just looked at the local satellite and was surprised by this feature. So far I don't think there are any signs of the pressure falling but it certainly looks like it has the potential to do so...as mentioned above TS Emily caught the computer models off guard.

I would think a minimal TS developing quickly would be as many are already calling 97L 'Erin' and this would take the name. A minimal TS isn't much of a problem either besides the flood potential which will be there with or without a defined center.

Oh boy, it would certainly mess with a lot of minds if this one wound up taking the name Erin.

[StormWeather]

Just looked at the local satellite and was surprised by this feature. So far I don't think there are any signs of the pressure falling but it certainly looks like it has the potential to do so...as mentioned above TS Emily caught the computer models off guard.

I would think a minimal TS developing quickly would be as many are already calling 97L 'Erin' and this would take the name. A minimal TS isn't much of a problem either besides the flood potential which will be there with or without a defined center.

Oh boy, it would certainly mess with a lot of minds if this one wound up taking the name Erin.

Oh don’t worry, I’ve got Fernand ready in the corner!

[Jr0d]

Just looked at the local satellite and was surprised by this feature. So far I don't think there are any signs of the pressure falling but it certainly looks like it has the potential to do so...as mentioned above TS Emily caught the computer models off guard.

I would think a minimal TS developing quickly would be as many are already calling 97L 'Erin' and this would take the name. A minimal TS isn't much of a problem either besides the flood potential which will be there with or without a defined center.

Oh boy, it would certainly mess with a lot of minds if this one wound up taking the name Erin.

Meant to write would be funny...edited my original.

Looking at the meso scale models, some show a little bit of a spin up in the next day, especially the WRF-ARWs but nothing significant enough to get any classification.

A surprise development here also would further complicate 97L's long range forecast.

Looking at the MESOscale models, there is a clear clockwise high pressure flow around Florida and the Southeast CONUS...I noticed this earlier in the season too. Hopefully this will not persist through the peak of the season because it could be a problem if a wave or storm misses the exit/ weakness around the west side of the Bernuda/ Azores high.

Just my amateur opinion with location bias alarminism, given I live in the Keys..

[floridasun]

look like area getting dry air east side when look sat pic from gulf over fl look their dry air

[MississippiWx]

Dry air isn’t really the issue here. It’s the lack of a surface low. Would take persistent convection to get a surface low going, and the convection has waned. Likely a nothing-burger.

[Dean_175]

I've been watching this wave as it has been moving over the Atlantic and is now close to or over Florida. Yesterday there was a distinct wind shift between the east and west coast. Today the convection is really blowing up off the east coast. There doesn't seem to be much model support, but waves in this area with the amount of oceanic heat should always be watched, especially so close to the coast where things can unexpectedly spin up

If it spins up into a minimal tropical storm and doesn't just hang out in the gulf for days like a Debby 2012, what difference would it make really? I remember we had a similar disturbance in 2017 that spun up into Emily along the coast right before landfall. The entire thing happened when I was asleep and I didn't know we even got hit with a tropical storm until later. NHC had just put out a "yellow" (I believe only 10 percent chance) and then it went right from that to Emily if my memory serves me right. May have even been upgraded from a yellow to a named system in a single advisory, but I am not sure because it literally happened overnight. I felt it was a name-wasting event.

[MississippiWx]

Much better surface reflection has formed far to the north right off the coast of the Big Bend. If it could move west for another day or two, we’d likely have a TC. Looks like it’s going to run ashore too soon.

[ElectricStorm]

This area gets a mention on the latest TWO but no chance of development

3. Northeastern Gulf:
A weak surface trough in the northeastern Gulf near the Florida
Panhandle is associated with a broad area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. While development of this system is not
anticipated before it moves inland, locally heavy rainfall could
produce flash-flooding along portions of the Florida Panhandle over
the next day or so. For more information of the rainfall hazards
related to this system, please see the products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.

[ScottNAtlanta]

It looks pretty good for 0%
I just checked buoy data in the area and pressures are lowering and there are definitely winds blowing west to the south, east to the north of the area and south and north winds, so there is a counter clockwise rotation of winds. Whether there is a defined center, I cant say, but it is over some VERY warm water right now, and there is pretty good upper level support.

[MississippiWx]

It looks pretty good for 0%
I just checked buoy data in the area and pressures are lowering and there are definitely winds blowing west to the south, east to the north of the area and south and north winds, so there is a counter clockwise rotation of winds. Whether there is a defined center, I cant say, but it is over some VERY warm water right now, and there is pretty good upper level support.

Yeah, 0% is a little anemic. Looks like it’s giving a good go of it to reach depression status.

[Nimbus]

It looks pretty good for 0%
I just checked buoy data in the area and pressures are lowering and there are definitely winds blowing west to the south, east to the north of the area and south and north winds, so there is a counter clockwise rotation of winds. Whether there is a defined center, I cant say, but it is over some VERY warm water right now, and there is pretty good upper level support.

Lowest pressures I could find tonight were just off the coast of Alabama ~29.94 and the mid gulf buoy was 29.92 a couple days ago. You didn't see any buoys reporting surface pressures below 29.9 did you? That would be a 1012 mb surface low and they sometimes develop if they stay out over water long enough.

[zzzh]

There is a closed but elongated center.

[StormWeather]

https://i.imgur.com/00wNbBm.png
There is a closed but elongated center.

If I were the NHC right now I’d up the chances to 30/30. I feel like we have the possibility of seeing a spin-up Fernand here if this thing can stay over water for another day or so. Definitely sneaky development happening here with this.

[AxaltaRacing24]

https://i.imgur.com/00wNbBm.png
There is a closed but elongated center.

if it stays over water for 24 hours, that is not a 0% wave imo

[Beef Stew]

I don’t think this will have time to develop into a tropical cyclone, but this has to be one of the best looking 0% chance systems I’ve ever seen.

[ScottNAtlanta]

It looks pretty good for 0%
I just checked buoy data in the area and pressures are lowering and there are definitely winds blowing west to the south, east to the north of the area and south and north winds, so there is a counter clockwise rotation of winds. Whether there is a defined center, I cant say, but it is over some VERY warm water right now, and there is pretty good upper level support.

Lowest pressures I could find tonight were just off the coast of Alabama ~29.94 and the mid gulf buoy was 29.92 a couple days ago. You didn't see any buoys reporting surface pressures below 29.9 did you? That would be a 1012 mb surface low and they sometimes develop if they stay out over water long enough.

I couldn't find many in the area that measured pressure.

[TallyTracker]

I’m in Mobile right now. The rain bands, oppressive humidity and low level streaming clouds make it feel like we’re on the periphery of a tropical cyclone. It certainly is not currently but it has that feel.