2025 ATL hurricane season is here

[LarryWx]

 https://x.com/cyclonicwx/status/1961919049941631027

Per Joe Bastardi, this may be the quietest Labor Day weekend of his lifetime for the world as a whole. It’s so quiet that he thinks many of us may never see another one this quiet!

More specifically, there was just an Invest in the EPAC and the remnants of a TD in SE Asia. That’s it, which is fascinating!

As a result of TS Kiko in the EPAC, 2025 is no longer the quietest Labor Day weekend tropically globally of Joe Bastardi’s lifetime. Why? Going back to 1950:

-1980: no TC in EPAC, WPAC, or N Indian. The only TC was TD7 forming 8PM Sun in the NATL and lasting through Mon. Thus, 2025 now having a TS already beats 1980 globally.

-1991 is debatable:
-no TC in EPAC or N Indian
-WPAC had a dissipating Harry, probably down to only a TD, on Sat, and a new TD on Mon
-NATL: TD 5 dissipated on Sat
-So, unlike 2025, 1991 had no TS+ but there were 3 TDs during the weekend.

[Travorum]

There's quite a difference in the outlook from 2023 vs 2025 near peak season:



It's still incredible to me what 2023 was able to achieve in the ATL against one of the strongest El Niños on record

[IcyTundra]

There's quite a difference in the outlook from 2023 vs 2025 near peak season:

https://i.imgur.com/VtVfsaf.png

https://i.imgur.com/iDJBL0k.png

It's still incredible to me what 2023 was able to achieve in the ATL against one of the strongest El Niños on record

The crazy thing is that there was a strong El Nino in 2023. Now we have a cool neutral ENSO for this season and it is much more quiet. Just goes to show that ENSO is one puzzle piece when it comes to seasonal forecasting.

[Category5Kaiju]

There's quite a difference in the outlook from 2023 vs 2025 near peak season:

https://i.imgur.com/VtVfsaf.png

https://i.imgur.com/iDJBL0k.png

It's still incredible to me what 2023 was able to achieve in the ATL against one of the strongest El Niños on record

The crazy thing is that there was a strong El Nino in 2023. Now we have a cool neutral ENSO for this season and it is much more quiet. Just goes to show that ENSO is one puzzle piece when it comes to seasonal forecasting.

Before the 2023 season happened, a lot of folks believed that the strong El Nino would win and make the Atlantic basin very hostile for activity. History points for that to be the case, so this wasn't an unreasonable assumption. However, 2023's unprecedented and extraordinarily unique pairing of the strong El Nino and the ultra-warm Atlantic really showed that having considerable tropical warmth always helps activity and raises the potential intensity/strength bar for storms.

In retrospect, the El Nino did have effects on Atlantic activity: a lot of storms that year were short-lived and/or weak, most storms turned harmlessly out to sea due to the extremely weak Bermuda High, and there was a relative lack of hurricanes in the Caribbean Sea. However, what made 2023 really stand out compared to other moderate or greater-strength El Nino Atlantic hurricane seasons was the combined forces of Franklin, Idalia, and Lee. Having 2 Category 4s and a Category 5 in such an environment is frankly impressive, and Lee holds the distinction for being the strongest recorded Atlantic hurricane during a moderate or greater-strength El Nino year.

[chaser1]

Twas Labor Day week when all through the house, not a creature was stirring - not even a mouse.

The tropics struggled on
with an MDR that didn't care

And S2K Members asking, would Gabriella soon be there?


THE SCORE AT HALFTIME-
6/1/1 and ACE of 39
Most Recent Hurricane Warning Issued - None