2025 Global ACE: NH - 150.3 (277.0) / NATL - 39.0 (43.1) / EPAC - 57.8 (84.8) / WPAC - 53.5 (139.6) / NIO - 0 (9.5)

[LarryWx]

Down to 147 today, will probably dip into the 130-135 range by 9/10 unless we unexpectedly generate some ACE before then. More importantly U.S. ACE is falling as well, odds of 3+ U.S. hurricane landfalls now less than 25%.

https://i.imgur.com/kyq67Dx.jpeg

https://weathertiger.substack.com/p/rea ... -hurricane

Thanks, Luis. Seasons with 3+ H hits on the CONUS are considered quite active for the CONUS. They include these over the last 30 seasons (current active era): 2024, 20, 17, 08, 05, 04, 1999, 98

So, that’s 8 out of 30 or 27% with 3+ CONUS H hits. Thus, he’s saying odds of 3+ have dropped to slightly lower than the normal chance of the active era. That seems to me like a reasonable drop considering the chance of the first prior to Sept 7th is low per models.

[cycloneye]

NATL better start to get ACE soon or it will fall well behind the normal average. WPAC continues to be the worse basin as the gap between 2025 ACE and the average to this date continues to get very wide.