2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[LAF92]

Just noticed the 06z Google model from weathernerds. Fairly robust signal emerges around 9/27...

https://i.imgur.com/krxEbIl.gif

https://i.imgur.com/xTwyTHf.jpeg

Did these models do ok with previous systems? I was just wondering as I’ve seen them posted in the before. The Caribbean may need to be watched soon

It's new this year and I haven't been following it that closely, but I remember it not being enthusiastic about 91L at all. We'll see if the GFS and EURO ensembles become more enthusiastic for by the end of the month.

FWIW the 06z Euro AI has a system coming into the Gulf towards the end of September

[TomballEd]

Just noticed the 06z Google model from weathernerds. Fairly robust signal emerges around 9/27...

https://i.imgur.com/krxEbIl.gif

https://i.imgur.com/xTwyTHf.jpeg

The Caribbean towards Gulf system doesn't show up on the Euro or GFS ensembles and until Google can show it out-predict the physics based ensembles, I disregard unless it has at least one model family's support.

6Z Euro, ok, it is pretty lonely, but the October 1949 Freeport Cat 2 crossed from the Pacific. Must have been either a cutoff low well S of where they usually settle or a strong negative tilt trough to do that. 0Z ensembles had one member which hits Louisiana as a 975 mb storm. I assume slop gyre genesis with the Pacific more likely to see a system than the Gulf.

[lsuhurricane]

The Caribbean towards Gulf system doesn't show up on the Euro or GFS ensembles

That's not completely accurate. Both GEFS and EPS indicate development in the exact same area at the 9-10 day mark. Very modest support, but it absolutely mirrors the AI output from both Euro AI and Google sets. Here's the latest output for reference.