How strong was Hurricane Melissa 2025?

[ncforecaster89]

With more data becoming accessible (e.g., coming across Grand Cayman radar imagery) and having had more time available to delve deeper into the analysis, I’m making a couple notable adjustments to my previous landfall estimates.

1) After reviewing the radar imagery from both Grand Cayman and Cuba, I’m now thinking landfall occurred around 1730z or thirty minutes later than the current operational estimate.

2) In addition, these radar images strongly suggest that the geometric center of the eye was somewhere in the range of 4-5 n mi from Josh’s chase location at time of his lowest pressure reading of 926 mb. Specifically, the GC radar looks to be just a little closer than the Cuban radar depiction…with GC in the range of 4.0 to 4.25 n mi from there while the Pilar radar is more on the order of 4.75-5.0 n mi. Given these figures, I’d settle on a distance of 4.5 n mi. This actually makes much more sense as Josh describes actually being *inside the eye* with calming conditions and “winds well below hurricane force.”

Here’s what I get by running the scholemer equation:

Pressure: 926 mb
Distance: 4.5 n mi
RMW: 8 n mi
OCI: 1006 mb
Estimated CP: 910 mb

This revision much better matches the data Josh obtained. Given he found himself definitively inside the eye (as opposed to the edge of the eye/eyewall), there’s simply not going to be too great a disparity between his pressure measurement and Melissa’s central pressure. It’s the relaxed pressure gradient inside the eye that results in the calmer conditions, obviously.

It’s also important to note that the general rule of thumb used by forecasters in determining a central pressure estimate from a peripheral pressure reading (inside the eye) is to subtract 1 mb for every 10 kt of wind. By that standard, we’d get an estimate closer to 920 mb…assuming a 60 kt sustained wind speed. That said, I’m certainly not suggesting the pressure had actually risen to that degree, but it does help one to better understand that the aforementioned 910 mb scholemer equation derived estimate isn’t at all unreasonable.

Being that I prefer to err on the higher end of such intensity estimates, I’d go with the following for landfall:

1730z:
155 kt
906 mb

Objectively, I’m not sure how we could possibly conceive a higher MSW or a lower central pressure estimate based on Josh’s observations from *inside the eye*. In reality, one could even argue for a MSW of 150 kt and a pressure upwards of 915 mb. I’ll also note that my 906 mb estimate matches the exact extrapolated filling rate seen between the last two RECON passes through the eye…and that was prior to the substantial satellite degradation that followed, thereafter. Moreover, it’s also possible that the RMW could’ve expanded to 9 n mi. Regardless, I chose to give Melissa *every* benefit of the doubt…although I still have a difficult time reconciling a 20 mb pressure differential between that presumed CP and Josh’s reading from *inside the eye*.

There’s no change to my original peak intensity estimate of 165 kt/890 mb at 1230z…although 165 kt/892 mb at 13z could’ve realistically been the peak. Thus, I’m confident it was 165 kt/890-892 mb somewhere between 12-13z.