2026 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Numbers Poll

[Category5Kaiju]

I'm ripping the bandaid off. The 12/6/2 with 75 ACE will be my final prediction.

[cycloneye]

We are up to 27 participants. Keep it up.

[Ivanhater]

13/7/4 Final

[cycloneye]

Up to 28. Keep it going.

[vbhoutex]

14/6/5 ACE 86 final

[tropicwatch]

14/3/2 ACE 70

[TampaFl]

14/7/3/ ACE: 105 (Final)

[cycloneye]

14/7/3/ ACE: 105 (Final)

#30 on the list

[emeraldislenc]

13 6 3
ACE 93

[cycloneye]

13 6 3
ACE 93

#31

[USTropics]

13/5/2, ACE of 77.

My reasoning:

• Just looking at the Atlantic SST pattern, the usual precursors are not there for an active hurricane season (mixed signals at best)
• All the current data and forecasts look like we'll be entering a robust El Nino during peak hurricane season
• This tends to increase upper-level winds in the Caribbean -> increasing westerly winds -> imparting detrimental shear on tropical cyclones in this region
• The MDR has struggled to produce the past ~10 years (really have to go back to 2017 for a robust MDR season), even in favorable periods
• The configuration for the EPAC to have a bonkers season is going to also impart shear in the Caribbean/GOM
• Climate models are forecasting a below-average season in the Atlantic

The one area in the Atlantic that could allow for the season to overperform my forecast is the subtropics, but that can always be tricky to determine this early (especially if the Walker circulation ends up shifting significantly easterward, causing subsidence dump in the subtropics).

[cycloneye]

13/5/2, ACE of 77.

My reasoning:

• Just looking at the Atlantic SST pattern, the usual precursors are not there for an active hurricane season (mixed signals at best)
• All the current data and forecasts look like we'll be entering a robust El Nino during peak hurricane season
• This tends to increase upper-level winds in the Caribbean -> increasing westerly winds -> imparting detrimental shear on tropical cyclones in this region
• The MDR has struggled to produce the past ~10 years (really have to go back to 2017 for a robust MDR season), even in favorable periods
• The configuration for the EPAC to have a bonkers season is going to also impart shear in the Caribbean/GOM
• Climate models are forecasting a below-average season in the Atlantic

The one area in the Atlantic that could allow for the season to overperform my forecast is the subtropics, but that can always be tricky to determine this early (especially if the Walker circulation ends up shifting significantly easterward, causing subsidence dump in the subtropics).

#32 on the list of participants.

[ouragans]

TS: 14
H: 7
MH: 3
ACE: 110
Final

[cycloneye]

TS: 14
H: 7
MH: 3
ACE: 110
Final

You are #33 on the list of participants.

[Sciencerocks]

13/5/2
Ace: 87


The caribbean is going to be a death zone...Super high shear and dry air.

The subtropics will be interesting and I'd watch for some close in formations. Alicia 83, Diania 84, Bob 91, Danny 97,....

Analogs
83
84
91
93
97
2006
2009

[cycloneye]

13/5/2
Ace: 87


The caribbean is going to be a death zone...Super high shear and dry air.

The subtropics will be interesting and I'd watch for some close in formations. Alicia 83, Diania 84, Bob 91, Danny 97,....

Analogs
83
84
91
93
97
2006
2009

#34 on the list.

[Astromanía]

10/4/1 57 ACE

[cycloneye]

10/4/1 57 ACE

#35

[johngaltfla]

Here we go...

12/5/2 ACE: 51

[cycloneye]

Here we go...

12/5/2 ACE: 51

#36 on the list of participants.