QS finally depicts (western half) of surface circulation....

[Derecho]

http://manati.wwb.noaa.gov/dataimages21 ... MBas20.png

Can see the elongated western half in the Pacific. Circ center over Costa Rica/Panama.

Unfortunately the swath totally missed the Western Carib, I suspect you'd see the mirror image of what is in the Pac....

[Ola]

Yeah, agreed. Very interesting. I suspect it is very broad still though. Hey Derecho, you dont post much here, so I guess you think this has a decent chance?

[wxman57]

I don't see much evidence of any surface circulation today, and less evidence of a circulation at any level. That convective complex about 400 miles south of Jamaica collapsed 3-4 hours ago and sent an outflow boundary southward into Panama. Looks pretty pathetic, but the models continue to insist on something developing in 36-48hrs. It has a LONG way to go before becoming a TD, though. I do think that if it does move N-NE as the models suggest, then chances are pretty good it will develop. But the question is, WILL this disturbance move northward into the central Caribbean? Here's a new snapshot of the area:

<img src="http://home.houston.rr.com/wx/disturb.gif">

[Steve H.]

Well if you buy the models it will. I think more patience is in order here, and as the low in the SE states (progged) splits the ridge, it will move NNE, then NE as the flow shifts from the south. I see a named system out of this.....but maybe shortlived as it latches onto a cold front then gets sheared out to the NE and possibly absorbed into the Mid-Atlantic low. It will get there, but not for a couple of days. If you buy the GCanadien, Jamaica better put plywood on the windows lol!