Tropical Update: 21 Feb

[senorpepr]

A) Invest (95W): At 21/0600Z...
Position near 11.8N 140.6E (200nm NE of Yap)

This area has dissipated and is no longer considered a threat.

https://metoc.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc/ab/abpwweb.txt

B) Invest (95P): At 21/0600Z...
Position near 15.8S 172.0E (320nm WNW Suva, Fiji)
Maximum sustained winds are 15-25 mph
Minimum central pressure is 1006 mb
T-numbers: T1.5/T1.5

Satellite shows deep convection over a possible low-level circulation. The upper-level's show good diffluence and weak to moderate wind shear. The JTWC has upgraded 95P to a "fair" chance of development.

https://metoc.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc/ab/abpwweb.txt

Please utilize the above link for the latest advisory. For latest forecast tracks and satellite imagery, go to the NRL Monterey's website at: http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

[senorpepr]

Here's a IR shot of 95P...

[Aslkahuna]

may have dropped 95W but NRL is still carrying it and at the moment at least there seems to be some sort of mid level circulation with disorganized convection with it. I suspect that if 95P had more convection with it, we would either be in alert status or quite possibly the first advisories on a TC since the circulation is well defined and there's banding developing in convection but the convection is sparse. Possibly some drier or cooler air working in there.

Steve

[senorpepr]

Yup, and 95P has been becoming more and more impressive as the day progresses...

[senorpepr]

UPDATE!!!

JTWC has upgraded 95P to a good as well as issued a TCFA...

Code: Select all

WTPS21 PGTW 212030
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 212021Z FEB 04//
RMKS/
1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
2. AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
3. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 180 NM RADIUS OF 16.1S8 173.1E2 WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 211730Z4 INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 16.2S9 172.8E8. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
4. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
15.8S4 172.0E0, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.2S9 172.8E8,
APPROXIMATELY 340 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS IMPROVED ORGANIZATION
OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS. EARLIER QUIKSCAT IMAGERY
INDICATES A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER UNDER THE CONVECTION.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PUTS THE AREA IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
GOOD DIFFLUENCE AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
5. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
222030Z9.//

NNNN

[senorpepr]

...furthermore, latest T-numbers are 2.0 from both agencies...

[MWatkins]

If this system were in the Atlantic...oh say halfway between the islands and Africa...folks would be freaking out for 2 reasons:

1. It's rotating clockwise.

2. T-numbers are up to 2 and there's probably a surface circulation developing if not already intact (not convinced of that yet just looking at AMSU pass from a few hours ago).

SST's look plenty warm...looks like some shear to the NE of the system but it looks far enough away to not be a problem.

MW

[senorpepr]

...NRL Monterey has officially drop 95W from their website...

[MWatkins]

95P is still looking good tonight. No new #'s tonight but still looks like a 2.0 to me and a borderline depression. Just needs a little more deep convection and it should be good to go.

MW

[cycloneye]

Still this morning has a 2.0 SAB estimate but it looks with good deep convection and I think it is a depression already.