Tropical Update: 25 Feb

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senorpepr
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Tropical Update: 25 Feb

#1 Postby senorpepr » Wed Feb 25, 2004 10:13 am

:rarrow: A) TC Ivy (13P): At 25/1125Z...
Position near 15.6S 167.7E (130nm NNW of Port Vila, Vanuatu)
Movement toward the SSW at 8 mph
Maximum sustained winds are 110 mph
Minimum central pressure is 949 mb
T# numbers: 5.5/5.5

Satellite indicates increased outflow, mostly on the eastern side of Ivy. Expect Ivy to continue to strengthen for the next 24 hours, up to 125 mph. Thereafter, expect a weakening trend as Ivy becomes extratropical.

https://metoc.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc/warni ... 304web.txt

Please utilize the above link for the latest advisory. For latest forecast tracks and satellite imagery, go to the NRL Monterey's website at: http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html
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#2 Postby senorpepr » Wed Feb 25, 2004 10:13 am

Image
Last edited by senorpepr on Wed Feb 25, 2004 11:14 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#3 Postby senorpepr » Wed Feb 25, 2004 10:20 am

Here are some nearby observations...

Code: Select all

Note: Winds are in degrees @ mph; vis is in statute miles; Sky Condition is reported in hundreds of feet (005=500') Temp and Dewpt are in °F, Pressure is in inches of mercury. /// is encoded for missing data.

Location      Time     Winds     Vis  Weather                   Sky Condition        Temp Dewpt Pressure
Sola (Vanua L 25/0600Z 260@20    12.4 Lgt Rain Shwrs            OVC010               84°F 75°F  29.40"
Pekoa Arpt (S 25/0600Z 160@35    3.70 Lgt Rain Shwrs            BKN010 BKN080        78°F 77°F  29.24"
Lamap (Maleku 25/1200Z 110@69    1.20 Mdt Rain                  BKN006 BKN080        ///  ///   ///
Bauerfield (E 25/1500Z 080@22    1.20 Mdt Rain                  OVC006               77°F 74°F  29.49"
White Grass A 25/0600Z 210@12    12.4 Lgt Rain Shwrs            OVC006               80°F 77°F  29.66"
Ile Art (Bele 25/1200Z 090@12    ///  ///                       ///                  81°F 76°F  29.75"
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#4 Postby senorpepr » Wed Feb 25, 2004 11:17 am

:rarrow: B) Invest (97P): At 25/1200Z...
Position near 12.2S 79.2E
Maximum sustained winds are 15 mph

This popped up on NRL's website. We'll see what happens with it. I believe this is the same system they classified as 96P yesterday. Regardless, I'll list it for now, but don't hold your breath.
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#5 Postby senorpepr » Wed Feb 25, 2004 1:33 pm

UPDATE!

:rarrow: B) Invest (97P): At 25/1730Z...
Position near 12.2S 79.2E (500nm ESE of Diego Garcia)
Maximum sustained winds are 25 mph
Minimum central pressure is 1008 mb

Upper-air analysis shows favorable conditions with good outflow. Meanwhile, moderate to minimal shear is present. The JTWC has given 97P a "poor" chance at development.
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Minor Error

#6 Postby Aslkahuna » Wed Feb 25, 2004 3:54 pm

the designation of 97P for the Invest near Diego Garcia s/b 97S as the disturbance is in the SIO. That 10 min 69mph wind translates to 83mph for a one minute wind so someone is getting blasted when you consider that the gusts are probably over 100mph.

Steve
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#7 Postby senorpepr » Wed Feb 25, 2004 4:22 pm

Ahh... it looks like I made a typo. It should be 97S.
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#8 Postby senorpepr » Wed Feb 25, 2004 4:32 pm

UPDATE!

:rarrow: A) TC Ivy (13P): At 25/2100Z...
Position near 16.7S 167.9E (90nm NNW of Port Vila, Vanuatu)
Movement toward the SSE at 5 mph
Maximum sustained winds are 125 mph
Minimum central pressure is 933 mb
T# numbers: 5.5/5.5

Ivy continues to strengthen under a very favorable environment. Expect Ivy to continue to grow within the next 24 hours. Afterwards, Ivy will transition into an extratropical cyclone.

https://metoc.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc/warni ... 304web.txt

:rarrow: B) Invest (97S): At 25/1900Z...
Position near 12.7S 80.6E (500nm ESE of Diego Garcia)
Maximum sustained winds are 25 mph
Minimum central pressure is 1004 mb

Upper-air analysis shows favorable conditions with good outflow. Meanwhile, moderate to minimal shear is present. The JTWC has given 97S a "poor" chance at development.

https://metoc.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc/ab/abioweb.txt

Please utilize the above link for the latest advisory. For latest forecast tracks and satellite imagery, go to the NRL Monterey's website at: http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html
Last edited by senorpepr on Wed Feb 25, 2004 8:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#9 Postby senorpepr » Wed Feb 25, 2004 4:39 pm

Some more obs near Ivy...

Code: Select all

Note: Winds are in degrees @ mph; vis is in statute miles; Sky Condition is reported in hundreds of feet (005=500') Temp and Dewpt are in °F, Pressure is in inches of mercury. /// is encoded for missing data.

Location      Time     Winds     Vis  Weather                   Sky Condition        Temp Dewpt Pressure
Sola (Vanua L 25/2100Z 300@21    12.4 Lgt Rain Shwrs            OVC010               83°F 77°F  29.55"
Pekoa Airport 25/2100Z 270@12    12.4 Lgt Rain Shwrs            BKN010 BKN080        79°F 76°F  29.25"
Lamap (Maleku 25/1200Z 110@69    1.20 Mdt Rain                  BKN006 BKN080        ///  ///   ///
Bauerfield (E 25/2100Z 090@39    1.20 Mdt Rain                  BKN003 BKN080        77°F 75°F  29.30"
White Grass A 25/2100Z 230@12    18.6 None                      OVC006               82°F 73°F  29.65"
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