Area of Interest for the Atlantic Hurricane Basin

[Guest]

Area of Interest for the Atlantic Hurricane Basin
For May 25, 2004
updated at 9:35pm/et
by
Barometer Bob Brookens
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Area of Interest Update!

The NHC has mentioned in their 00zulu/8pm Tropical Weather Discussion that the area of interest east of the Bahama's may become a tropical depression in the next day or two. Possible, but not set in stone. I have mentioned the possibilty, and also stated that the shear would need to weaken. Based on the NOGAPS(FNMOC) Shear forecast, the shear will remain fairly strong along the northwestern periphery of the low pressure. With high pressure building from the south, this could allow for enough of a favorable enviroment for a tropical depression to form. These features combined with a northeasterly motion, with the shear could again allow for a minimal tropical depression to form, but briefly.
In the IR4 Loop we see an exposed and enlongated surface circulation. Then further east and northeast we see the convection with an area of strong convection where the midlevel circulation is more then likely located. In order to have tropical cyclone development we would need to have these two levels much closer to each other, or stacked. This could occur only if the shear weakens, or if the low level circulation redevelops under the midlevel circulation. The convection keeps develeloping on the northeastern portion of the enlongated low level circulation. If this continues, and the shear weakens as the models have been suggesting, then yes we could see the NHC upgrade this to a tropical depression tomorrow (Wednesday) or Thursday. If it doesn't occur by then, expect to see a Gale Warning issude for the Atlantic.
The steering is easy. Being the area is on the northern side of the building high pressure, and a trough moving eastward across the CONUS (Continental United States) the northeastward motion shall continue. All of the forecast models I have viewed reflect this motion till it becomes a Gale Center or Extratropical, this depends on the nature of the area if the NHC upgrades it to a tropical depression.
The only concern for this area of interest if shipping and Bermuda. We will continue to monitor this area of interest for the next few days.
Keep in touch with your LOCAL WEATHER OUTLETS, and the NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER for further information!

[HURAKAN]

Although it may not form into anything, this thing still caught our attention and the attention of the NHC. Let see what happens, by tomorrow the RECON plane should provide more information. I remember that last week I posted something saying that Agatha would be gone and we will be still discussing this system, and look, we still are talking about the system.

Sandy Delgado

"IF YOU LIVE IN FLORIDA, NEAR THE BEACH, AND DON'T RECEIVE A MISERABLE DROP OF RAIN, JUST RELAX, AND PLEASE, TAKE IT EASY. RAIN WILL DROP, MAYBE NOT TODAY, OR TOMORROW, OR IN A WEEK, BUT IT WILL"
MESSAGE FOR A BETTER FUTURE

BELOW: IDEAS TO ENJOY FLORIDA'S SUN

"GOOD IDEA TO REFRESH"

"BE CAREFULL WITH RIP CURRENTS AND SHARKS"

"ROW, ROW, ROW THE BOAT ..."

"ENJOY LIFE AT ITS BEST, BE CAREFUL WITH SUNBURNS"[/b]

[wxman57]

I seriously doubt if the NHC will send out a plane tomorrow. They won't go investigate it unless it slows down and convection builds over the LLC, and that's not likely to happen by tomorrow morning.

[Wnghs2007]

I seriously doubt if the NHC will send out a plane tomorrow. They won't go investigate it unless it slows down and convection builds over the LLC, and that's not likely to happen by tomorrow morning.

LLC is gone. But is redeveloping. Will not get a clear view until morning but that is what it is going to do. The statement has been changed but it said a new low will form at 27.5 North, and 65 West. Which would put it right about under the current convection and with weaking shear. Bada Bing Bada Boom. We have an Invest.

[MWatkins]

LLC is gone. But is redeveloping. Will not get a clear view until morning but that is what it is going to do. The statement has been changed but it said a new low will form at 27.5 North, and 65 West. Which would put it right about under the current convection and with weaking shear. Bada Bing Bada Boom. We have an Invest.

They have to decide fairly soon whether or not task the plane or cancel the mission. Based on the appearance of the system...and considering it's probably not a threat to bermuda even...I would bet just about anything that they cancel it.

Even if the system does redevelop a low level center...which is FAR from assured...it's probably going to have to happen over open water...with out the expense of recon.

MW

[george_r_1961]

Well this morning it once again looks a lot healthier as weak systems typically do during the hours of darkness. I think it may become a TD or even a weak TS later today. However it wont last long before extratropical transformation takes place.

[HURAKAN]

Well this morning it once again looks a lot healthier as weak systems typically do during the hours of darkness. I think it may become a TD or even a weak TS later today. However it wont last long before extratropical transformation takes place.

100% in agreement.

Sandy Delgado

[wxman57]

Looks less of a threat to develop this morning. There won't be any new center forming. The LLC has raced NE and will be passing south of Bermuda in a few hours. Convection is 300 miles northeast of the low level swirl and racing NE too. This will not be Alex.

[CocoaBill]

Completely agree, wxman57 - we need to stick a fork in this one.

[Wnghs2007]

Looks less of a threat to develop this morning. There won't be any new center forming. The LLC has raced NE and will be passing south of Bermuda in a few hours. Convection is 300 miles northeast of the low level swirl and racing NE too. This will not be Alex.

I actually have to agree. Its gone. And it aint coming back. Possible Tropical Cyclone Development has been cancelled by the NHC to. And the center has not reformed like they said it would it has just weakend considerablly while becoming elongated. No chance for this thing. NEXT!!!!!!!!!