Look at the Western Gulf of Mexico

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HurricaneGirl
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Look at the Western Gulf of Mexico

#1 Postby HurricaneGirl » Tue Jun 08, 2004 9:32 am

http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html

It looks like this convection is getting deeper as it moves over the water.
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#2 Postby Derecho » Tue Jun 08, 2004 10:01 am

First thing to look at (BEFORE looking at satellite pics) is always the CIMISS shear map.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8shr.GIF

40 kts of screaming westerly shear. It's totally based on upper level winds, nothing surface, nothing tropical.
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#3 Postby PTrackerLA » Tue Jun 08, 2004 10:25 am

Saw a model yesterday that showed the western gulf becoming favorable in 24-36 hours which would mean tonight or tomorrow warning. Wondering if this is still the case since there is now plenty of convection out there which is always raises the first flag so to speak.
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#4 Postby HurricaneGirl » Tue Jun 08, 2004 10:35 am

Thanks for the Wind Shear Map!
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Here's the link from yesterday

#5 Postby bbadon » Tue Jun 08, 2004 10:36 am

Here's the link you were refering to PT. I posted it yestereday. Others said it was very unreliable. http://www.wunderground.com/data/640x480/atlm_shear.gif
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#6 Postby dixiebreeze » Tue Jun 08, 2004 12:13 pm

I've been watching that, HG. Shear is prevalent now, but it may ease in a few days. That is some huge amount of convection. :eek:
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Suzi Q

#7 Postby Suzi Q » Tue Jun 08, 2004 12:40 pm

Ok, now that I've actually looked at the sat link, um, I would think that the mess in the western gulf would bear watching. If shear were to decrease, that area looks a little more than benign, imo.
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#8 Postby Typhoon_Willie » Tue Jun 08, 2004 2:24 pm

According to the loop it looks like high pressure may be building east of the Islands let say 15 degrees north and 45 degrees west...
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#9 Postby wxman57 » Tue Jun 08, 2004 2:30 pm

In "a few days" those storms will be in the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. No chance of development for this wave. It's already moving ashore, for the most part.
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