tropical update 6-11-04

[WXBUFFJIM]

The tropics remain quite active in the western Pacific while several disturbances are plaguing the eastern Pacific through the Atlantic Basin this morning.

Starting with the western Pacific where it remains quite active this morning with two tropical entities. The first, tropical storm Conson is weakening very quickly over central Japan. The main threat will be heavy rains over Japan. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph with higher gusts. The last advisory has already been written on this storm system.

The next system is further south over the south China Sea. Tropical Storm 08W Chanthu is strengthening very slowly with maximum sustained winds up to near 60 mph with higher gusts. Chanthu could become a typhoon in the next 1-2 days as it heads from the south China Sea to the Gulf of Tonkin. This system should make landfall sometime early next week over extreme northern Vietnam northeast of Hanoi, the capital of Vietnam.

Shifting our focus towards the eastern Pacific shows a disturbance located around 11 degrees north, 111 degrees west. This system has been waxing and waning convection over the last day or two. If it becomes more persistent, it could potentially develop into a depression. However it doesn't appear immient at this time and is not threatening any land anyway. The rest of the eastern Pacific is quiet this morning.

Meanwhile there are showers and storms continuing over the northwest Caribbean Sea underneath an upper level low. Strong winds continue to round the base of this upper low. As a result, no tropical development is expected in the short term. The Gulf Of Mexico is quiet this morning. However the Caribbean upper low could track into the southern or southwestern Gulf later this weekend and that's when we must keep an eye out for any signs of tropical development over the Gulf Of Mexico because that is a possibility. Meanwhile in the eastern Caribbean and the tropical Atlantic, strong west winds aloft sheared off convection over the last day or two. That's the latest at this time.

Jim