Now this is getting interesting!

[Stormcenter]

I'm upping my probabilty for possible development (TD or TS) of the GOM disturbance to 70% today. I after reading MANY weather discussions throughout the Gulf coast cities it's pretty obvious the thinking is something "organized" is trying to get going off the NW tip of the Yucatan. This is the same circulation some of us on this board noted yesterday on several posts that was crossing the Yucatan yesterday.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[Stormcenter]

If you want more proof that the thinking is changing well then just read the latest NHC Outlook from high power there. The wording changes with every update leaving the door open for possible development whereas yesterday almost no chance was given for development.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 120852
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS/TPC NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT SAT JUN 12 2004

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS ASSOCIATED
PRIMARILY WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM IS NOT WELL
ORGANIZED...THERE IS A SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.

ELSEWHERE TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE

[Matthew5]

I think if there is a LLCC forming, then that wording will go up to likely.

[rainstorm]

interesting