GULF OF MEXICO... THE GLFMEX HAS BECOME RATHER ACTIVE DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN MOVED NWD LAST NIGHT AND IS CURRENTLY MERGING WITH AN EXISTING UPPER LOW OVER THE W GLFMEX. THIS INTERACTION HAS CREATED AN ELONGATED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM JUST OFF THE SE TEXAS COAST SEWD INTO THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE AND ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS EVOLVING PATTERN HAS ALLOWED COPIOUS TROPICAL MOISTURE TO SURGE NWD INTO THE SE GLFMEX WHERE FAVORABLE UPPER DYNAMICS/LIFT IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. WHILE THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO SIGNS OF A WELL DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION...THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT MAY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WEEKEND AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW FORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO PROGRESS NWD INTO THE CENTRAL GLFMEX TONIGHT POSSIBLY REACHING THE N GULF COAST LATE SUNDAY. WHILE MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PASS PRIMARILY W OF FLORIDA...UPPER LEVEL WLY FLOW WILL LIKELY ADVECT MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS EWD OVER THE SUNSHINE STATE.
Sandy Delgado
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