AFDTBW
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
835 AM EDT SAT JUN 12 2004
.REST OF TODAY...MUCH LESS CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN GULF THIS
MORNING VS LAST FEW MORNINGS. ONLY ISOLD SHOWERS OVER THE NE GULF.
COULD BE DUE TO SOME LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE FROM OUTER FRINGES OF
DEVELOPING CIRCULATION OVER THE NW CARRIBEAN/YUCATAN...SUPPORTED BY
ANTICYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL CLOUD BANDS ON SATELLITE LOOPS ACROSS THE
SE GULF WATERS.
SFC RIDGE AXIS STILL RUNS FROM JUST SOUTH OF TPA...ESE TO AROUND
PBI. THUS...WEAK WESTERLY FLOW FROM TPA NORTH...AND LIGHT ESE FLOW
SOUTH OF TPA. EXPECT AFTERNOON SEABREEZES ALL ENTIRE COAST. CURRENT
POPS AT 40% COASTAL COUNTIES...AND 50% LOOK REASONABLE FOR NOW.
GIVEN MUCH LESS COVERAGE OF CONVECTION OVER EASTERN GULF THIS
MORNING...WOULD ASSUME COVERAGE WOULD BE LESS OVER THE LAND TODAY
THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...BUT WILL LEAVE POPS ALONE FOR NOW. ALSO...
THREAT FOR ANY STRONG/SVR TSTMS CONTINUES TO BE LOW FOR TODAY GIVEN
SOME UPPER SUBSIDENCE AND PWS NEAR 2 INCHES.
&&
.MARINE...NO MAJOR CHANGES EXPECTED FOR MORNING UPDATE. CONTINUE TO
MONITOR MODEL SOLUTIONS OF DEVELOPING CIRCULATION OVER THE NW
CARRIBEAN...AND ITS POTENTIAL TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF WATERS BY LATE SUN/EARLY MON.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...NO HIGHLIGHTS.
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
MORALES
Thoughts and comments welcomed.
Robert
