8:30 AM EDT Special Tropical Disturbance Statement #3

[cycloneye]

No tropical development today with present scenario.Recon mission in my view will be cancelled.Read the Storm2k Special Statement at link below.Any comments are welcomed.

http://www.storm2k.org/weather/s2kforecast.html

[Thunder44]

I disagree, I think the plane should be sent out there. It's lacks some convection but in structure it looks better organized to me today than yesterday. You see it started to get more expansive and wrap up, and the convection is slowly increasing. I'm no pro, but I believe it's in it developing stages and it may look more impressive later today.

On the water vapor loop, while it may be entraining some dry on the side overall it looks like to me anti-cylone is over it, which more favorable for development than yesterday

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

On the visible satellite loop, it looks like to me a new LLC may be developing near 23N 93W. Notice the low clouds just south of that postion moving moving more inward not outward toward that position and convection is increasign over it. The old LLC is becoming less-defined.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Here's a closer look...
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

And those buoy are fairly far north in the gulf to get an West wind if my postion on the new LLC is correct
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

Just putting my two cents here.

[PTPatrick]

It appears that some LLC formed under tha big ball, and we are only now beginning to really see where it was at now that some of the TS have been blow off. There is feinately a center at 93/23...but the question is, do the storms reform. It appears that there is some convection near the center trying wrap...but it is too early to tell a think. Lets wait and see. Although it seems to me that there is a good chance this will be one of those, quick changing things were a TS forms before the TD did...not that it will make a big difference strength wise. I have said already I think the main threat here is rain and severe weather from New Orleans to Pensacola.

[Stormcenter]

No tropical development today with present scenario.Recon mission in my view will be cancelled.Read the Storm2k Special Statement at link below.Any comments are welcomed.

http://www.storm2k.org/weather/s2kforecast.html

Incorrect, the recon it still going out.

[chadtm80]

Ya.. Sure they figure it will be a good warmup and practice for them.. It's relative close to their base and I suppose you would rather be safe then sorry with something this close in the Gulf