Subsiding Shear?

#1 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed Jun 16, 2004 5:25 pm

Yesterday I showed the same image which showed the increasing shear over the next 48 hours in the Caribbean Sea. But today it looks to have changed, let see what really happens!

chadtm80 · #2 Postby **chadtm80** » Wed Jun 16, 2004 5:51 pm

ABNT20 KNHC 162058
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS/TPC NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT WED JUN 16 2004

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE ARE MOVING
WESTWARD ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.

TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

FORECASTER AVILA

Guest · #3 Postby **Guest** » Wed Jun 16, 2004 6:57 pm

the shear isn't going to relax anytime soon. I would be watching to see if that ULL develops off the Bahama's. This may actually be something to watch for next week.

caribepr · #4 Postby **caribepr** » Wed Jun 16, 2004 7:03 pm

Eight friends of mine on three sailboats are leaving tomorrow from here (Culebra, PR) to head out for Florida and points north and they hang over my computer asking questions. It's been an interesting couple of days trying to give them vague answers, mainly consisting of heads UP!!, and I'm glad you all are here to help!

Rainband · #5 Postby **Rainband** » Wed Jun 16, 2004 7:38 pm

Chances are the wave won't develop. This is the tropics and anything is possible. Most are just saying whats probable. If this was a full blown Storm or Hurricane. I am sure you'd be more than satisfied with the accuracy our members provide. A good example is the "thing" that was in the Gulf Of Mexico!! :wink:

caribepr · #6 Postby **caribepr** » Thu Jun 17, 2004 6:21 am

Rainband, hope you understood I meant *I* was the one giving vague answers!

Rainband · #7 Postby **Rainband** » Thu Jun 17, 2004 7:08 am

caribepr wrote:Rainband, hope you understood I meant *I* was the one giving vague answers!

After re reading your post I see what you meant :wink:

I am Happy S2K is here for you 8-)

Derecho · #8 Postby **Derecho** » Thu Jun 17, 2004 8:16 am

caribepr wrote:Eight friends of mine on three sailboats are leaving tomorrow from here (Culebra, PR) to head out for Florida and points north and they hang over my computer asking questions. It's been an interesting couple of days trying to give them vague answers, mainly consisting of heads UP!!, and I'm glad you all are here to help!

Geez, there's nothing remotely meriting a "heads up!" anywhere in the tropical Atlantic, really.

I cannot fathom the level of attention given to the supposed whatever over the Bahamas in the past few days here. In September people are going to look back and laugh at the idea that it merited even one post, much less about 50. Sometimes you can have (gasp) an actual cloud over water in the tropical Atlantic, and it really isn't worth talking about.

#9 Postby **bevgo** » Thu Jun 17, 2004 8:44 am

I think we are all anxious for the season to get underway and a bunch of clouds are enough to get us excited. It has been a long winter with no action and we are ready to go. I seem to remember the same last year and for years before that on other boards.

Website · #10 Postby **Brent** » Thu Jun 17, 2004 8:57 am

I can see getting excited about it, but the odds are against it. In fact, the odds are against any storm forming in June AT ALL, even in the Gulf and Caribbean. It'll be active soon enough.

Rainband · #11 Postby **Rainband** » Thu Jun 17, 2004 3:45 pm

Derecho wrote:Geez, there's nothing remotely meriting a "heads up!" anywhere in the tropical Atlantic, really.

Not everybody knows a lot about weather and when your sailing it doesn't take a tropical system to cause problems or delays. Everyday storms can do that. I am sure they were just curious to what the weather would be like :roll:

And if it would have any impact on their trip :roll:

Rainband · #12 Postby **Rainband** » Thu Jun 17, 2004 3:49 pm

derecho wrote:I cannot fathom the level of attention given to the supposed whatever over the Bahamas in the past few days here. In September people are going to look back and laugh at the idea that it merited even one post, much less about 50. Sometimes you can have (gasp) an actual cloud over water in the tropical Atlantic, and it really isn't worth talking about.

Lighten up. :roll:

Not everyone claims to be or Is a pro . Who cares if they post about that area. I don't, I just ignore posts I find no merit in.... *sigh* It's going to be a LONG season!!!

ColdFront77 · #13 Postby **ColdFront77** » Thu Jun 17, 2004 3:51 pm

I agree. I feel if I "open my mouth" in any forum, especially this one, that I will be "attacked" (for lack of a better word) at times.

We bring up what we feel like it; it by no means necessarily means we think something is going to develop. We are here for discussion, not sit here not corresponding each other about something we all enjoy monitoring.

:darrow:

This sort of thing is associated with my signature. :darrow:

#14 Postby **vbhoutex** » Thu Jun 17, 2004 4:55 pm

ColdFront77 wrote:I agree. I feel if I "open my mouth" in any forum, especially this one, that I will be "attacked" (for lack of a better word) at times.

We bring up what we feel like it; it by no means necessarily means we think something is going to develop. We are here for discussion, not sit here not corresponding each other about something we all enjoy monitoring.

This sort of thing is associated with my signature.

The operative words here are "I feel", meaning that it is your perception Tom. I disagree with you. I have yet to see anyone "attack" you or for that matter anyone else here lately. I've seen disagreements and I've seen -removed- but no attacks lately. When someone questions or disagrees with your post they are not attacking you. There is a difference.

When Derecho or anyone else makes a comment such as the one above, unless it is directed at a person it is just a statement of opinion, not an attack. I may not like the way it is stated or I may think it is arrogant or whatever, but it is not an "attack".

ColdFront77 · #15 Postby **ColdFront77** » Thu Jun 17, 2004 6:18 pm

All well and good... but I am just trying to make a point. Thank you for responding.

caribepr · #16 Postby **caribepr** » Thu Jun 17, 2004 7:59 pm

Cheese on bread! Thank you Rainband, derecho, I hope you never go to sea, and Cold Front, yep.
As to the *feeling* aspect, that's a very real part of online communication, which is why we should all try to be aware that there is another person on the other side of the screen, not just a name in some zone in cyberspace.
And now, for the weather, whether or not you know a lot or a little, the weather is real;)

Rainband · #17 Postby **Rainband** » Thu Jun 17, 2004 8:36 pm

caribepr wrote:Cheese on bread! Thank you Rainband, derecho, I hope you never go to sea, and Cold Front, yep.
As to the *feeling* aspect, that's a very real part of online communication, which is why we should all try to be aware that there is another person on the other side of the screen, not just a name in some zone in cyberspace.
And now, for the weather, whether or not you know a lot or a little, the weather is real;)

Your Welcome!!!

Subsiding Shear?

Subsiding Shear?

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