98E!

[*StOrmsPr*]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html


25kt. 1009MB 13.0N 108.7W

[HURAKAN]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

25kt. 1009MB 13.0N 108.7W

A MB less, 1008MB.

[Brent]

THE TROPICS ARE ALIVE!!!

*Alarm bells go off*

LOL, it's only the EPAC.

[Anonymous]

And it's only a tropical disturbance that, imo, doesn't look very healthy. I am more concerned about the new wave approaching 90ºW.

[caneman]

Hey TWW. Could it be a fast developer and squirt thru C.A. and into Gulf?

[Steve H.]

Well, maybe its a precursor for the Atlantic activity to start. Let's go mjo!

[Anonymous]

Hey TWW. Could it be a fast developer and squirt thru C.A. and into Gulf?

Chances of that happening are slim...the wave will remain on a west-northwest heading for the next several days.

[caneman]

Reason I bring it up is I heard Lyons mention fast development could take it more Northely squirting the coast. What dynamics are in play to make it go more Northerly?

[*StOrmsPr*]

last TWO:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 2244.shtml?


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 292244
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM PDT TUE JUN 29 2004

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED ABOUT
485 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM IS
MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AND SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS
LIKELY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

FORECASTER STEWART



and TO WEAK for T# :

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

30/0000 UTC 13.9N 111.9W TOO WEAK 98E

[Anonymous]

Well, maybe its a precursor for the Atlantic activity to start. Let's go mjo!

Could be Steve...the MJO pulse is slowly spreading eastward. I wouldn't be surprsied to see something try to get going in the central Atlantic starting at around the 10th of July...refer to the GFS threads.

[Anonymous]

Reason I bring it up is I heard Lyons mention fast development could take it more Northely squirting the coast. What dynamics are in play to make it go more Northerly?

Well we have the first wave which is creating somewhat of a weakness in the atmosphere, which would help draw it northward. Second, the western periphery of the Atlantic ridge extends through the western Gulf of Mexico. But the wave will not race northward that quickly without gaining a fair amount of longitude first.

[Anonymous]

last TWO:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 2244.shtml?


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 292244
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM PDT TUE JUN 29 2004

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED ABOUT
485 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM IS
MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AND SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS
LIKELY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

FORECASTER STEWART



and TO WEAK for T# :

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

30/0000 UTC 13.9N 111.9W TOO WEAK 98E

The reason why i'm not as optimistic is that there is a lot of shear in place. Load an IR loop and it is clearly visible. The shear could retreat some though I doubt it. we will see...

[caneman]

TWW. K. Thnx.