A Quick Developer?

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Post Reply
Message
Author
Dean4Storms
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6358
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 31, 2003 1:01 pm
Location: Miramar Bch. FL

A Quick Developer?

#1 Postby Dean4Storms » Thu Jul 08, 2004 10:44 am

The convection that began last night right south of my place over the NE GOM has continued into this morning. Looks like it is in an area of possible development. Will have to wait and see if it persists and if a low can form in the convection.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... &itype=vis

And Radar..........

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... kevx.shtml
0 likes   
My opinion and statements DO NOT represent the opinion of the EMA, NHC, NWS, or any other professional agency, organization, or group. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:
Contact HURAKAN

#2 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Jul 08, 2004 10:46 am

Looks interesting but the NHC has not say anything about it, if it persist 24 hours more then I think it will be something to watch although it is very close to land.
0 likes   
Top
CocoaBill
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 216
Joined: Sun Aug 31, 2003 10:03 am
Location: Cocoa, FL
Contact:
Contact CocoaBill

#3 Postby CocoaBill » Thu Jul 08, 2004 10:51 am

The NHC HAS said something about it.....

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 1525.shtml?
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:
Contact HURAKAN

#4 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Jul 08, 2004 10:54 am

CocoaBill wrote:The NHC HAS said something about it.....

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 1525.shtml?


We are talking about something in the Gulf of Mexico and as you can read in the TWO they don't mention anything about the GOM, just the disturbance SW of Bermuda, the other area East of Bermuda and a tropical wave.

:roll:
Last edited by HURAKAN on Thu Jul 08, 2004 10:55 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Top
Dean4Storms
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6358
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 31, 2003 1:01 pm
Location: Miramar Bch. FL

#5 Postby Dean4Storms » Thu Jul 08, 2004 10:55 am

CocoaBill wrote:The NHC HAS said something about it.....

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 1525.shtml?


You are confused, the NHC is talking about the system out in the Atlantic and I'm mentioning the new blow up of convection in the NE Gulf of Mexico.
0 likes   
My opinion and statements DO NOT represent the opinion of the EMA, NHC, NWS, or any other professional agency, organization, or group. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:
Contact HURAKAN

#6 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Jul 08, 2004 10:57 am

Dean4Storms wrote:
CocoaBill wrote:The NHC HAS said something about it.....

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 1525.shtml?


You are confused, the NHC is talking about the system out in the Atlantic and I'm mentioning the new blow up of convection in the NE Gulf of Mexico.


There You Go. :lol: 8-) :D
0 likes   
Top
CocoaBill
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 216
Joined: Sun Aug 31, 2003 10:03 am
Location: Cocoa, FL
Contact:
Contact CocoaBill

#7 Postby CocoaBill » Thu Jul 08, 2004 11:09 am

You are absolutely right.

My bad! - sorry...... :cry:

Thinking of one while looking at the other!

No hard feelings? :oops:
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Lindaloo
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 22658
Joined: Sat Mar 29, 2003 10:06 am
Location: Pascagoula, MS

#8 Postby Lindaloo » Thu Jul 08, 2004 11:12 am

Thanks Bill you had me confused. :lol: :lol:
0 likes   
Top
kevin

hmmm

#9 Postby kevin » Thu Jul 08, 2004 11:13 am

I noticed how much rain was there this morning, a lot more than I thought based on sat pics. Seems to be nearly stationary. Down by Cuba on WV imagery there is a swirl, and this must mean an upper level low (?) which should be causing shear. However on shear tendency maps there isn't much shear in the NE gulf and it isn't increasing. Whatever this storm might be in terms of structure, its sure to send out outflow boundaries and increase rainfall today along the florida coast.

Just my amateur thoughts.
-Kevin
0 likes   
Top
CocoaBill
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 216
Joined: Sun Aug 31, 2003 10:03 am
Location: Cocoa, FL
Contact:
Contact CocoaBill

#10 Postby CocoaBill » Thu Jul 08, 2004 11:17 am

Are the conditions in the upper atmosphere that create a short wave conducive to TC formation? Just curious. If they are, then TC formation would be quicker than if a shortwave condition is from upper level low vortices (or something) which would not be conducive to TC formation....

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
300 AM CDT THU JUL 8 2004

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY OVER GULF COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING RESULTING FROM WEAK SHORTWAVE JUST WEST OF FCST AREA.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
hurricanefloyd5
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1659
Age: 45
Joined: Sun May 02, 2004 10:53 am
Location: Spartanburg
Contact:
Contact hurricanefloyd5

#11 Postby hurricanefloyd5 » Thu Jul 08, 2004 12:09 pm

i think that a torpical depression/storm alex will form sw of bermuda and also think that once the first name storm forms then this season might take off like a rocket!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Hurricanehink
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2044
Joined: Sun Nov 16, 2003 2:05 pm
Location: New Jersey

#12 Postby Hurricanehink » Thu Jul 08, 2004 12:15 pm

It looks to be weakening a little. I think 96L is enough for now. Still, Alex and Bonnie couldn't hurt ;)
0 likes   
Top
OtherHD
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2192
Age: 39
Joined: Tue Oct 08, 2002 10:01 am
Location: San Antonio, TX

#13 Postby OtherHD » Thu Jul 08, 2004 12:46 pm

Wouldn't be surprised to see this upgraded to a TD as early as tonight. I don't see this getting much past moderate TS, if that.
0 likes   
Top
Stormcenter
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6685
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:27 am
Location: Houston, TX

#14 Postby Stormcenter » Thu Jul 08, 2004 12:49 pm

OtherHD wrote:Wouldn't be surprised to see this upgraded to a TD as early as tonight. I don't see this getting much past moderate TS, if that.


Are you referring to the GOM or Atlantic disturbance?
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
PTrackerLA
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5280
Age: 41
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 8:40 pm
Location: Lafayette, LA

#15 Postby PTrackerLA » Thu Jul 08, 2004 12:56 pm

We shoulud be watching the area near Bermuda, the storms in the northern gulf don't look too promising and are mainly being enhanced by daytime heating.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:
Contact HURAKAN

Re: A Quick Developer?

#16 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Jul 08, 2004 1:51 pm

Dean4Storms wrote:The convection that began last night right south of my place over the NE GOM has continued into this morning. Looks like it is in an area of possible development. Will have to wait and see if it persists and if a low can form in the convection.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... &itype=vis

And Radar..........

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... kevx.shtml


AND POOF!
0 likes   
Top
OtherHD
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2192
Age: 39
Joined: Tue Oct 08, 2002 10:01 am
Location: San Antonio, TX

#17 Postby OtherHD » Thu Jul 08, 2004 3:26 pm

Stormcenter wrote:
OtherHD wrote:Wouldn't be surprised to see this upgraded to a TD as early as tonight. I don't see this getting much past moderate TS, if that.


Are you referring to the GOM or Atlantic disturbance?


Whoops! I was talking about the Bermuda disturbance. Guess I replied in the wrong thread. :oops:
0 likes   
Top
Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38258
Age: 37
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:
Contact Brent

#18 Postby Brent » Thu Jul 08, 2004 3:48 pm

The stuff in the Gulf is typical summertime junk. Watch SW of Bermuda.
0 likes   
#neversummer
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: KirbyDude25 and 104 guests